US market has displayed bearish trend since start of 2022, It has been on a downhill course.
In order to even understand this market one has to look @ every sector / Indices
Here is my stock market 101 which is RSI picture, here it is :
TAN 52.22
DOW 46.09
IWM 44.63
S&P 500 44.62
Nasdaq 44.22
XLF 43.80
JETS 40.14
XLE 39.40
GLD 39.03
XLB 35.73
SOX 32.74
As one can clearly see not a single sector looks technically healthy which is a read of minimum 60.
Worst sector is SOX with 32.74 RSI reading which is " alarming for technology stocks "
There is only one sector which is above 50 DMA which is TAN
XLE is the only sector which is above 200 DMA...
By default TAN is the healthiest just based on RSI score.....
After 6 months of INTENSE selling, picture has gotten worse as SOX has gone into major selling, most stocks in SOX are hitting new 52 week low...very weak picture.....
TAPE has the hallmark of making new lows in major averages....
There is " NO LEADERSHIP " in this TAPE yet.....
Next quarter is shaping to be the weakest from earnings point of view as warnings are coming daily from even previously warned companies.....
Q4 may be the only hope as by then every analyst will make the necessary cut in EPS & Sales to reflect slumping economic scenario.....
War in Ukraine keeps going
Inflation keeps ramping
Costs of doing business keeps rising
Interest rates are flying higher & higher
COVID variations keeps growing
We need couple of the above negatives to show subsiding, then there is hope that US stock market may turn from bearish to an improving mode.
Until then, we all hope our surviving strategy works in US stock market.
Good luck with your own analysis and understanding of current economic environment and your own comfort level.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
5 comments:
Hi Saleem,
Last week: -9.16% (YTD: -22.08%)
Notable Leaders: none
Notable Laggards: UPST LYFT PATH IONQ ZENV MDB SNAP COUP
What goes up must come down? It was a brutal week for the portfolio while I was on vacation. Two stocks near unchanged (GTLB and UPWK) were the only "victories". While the market remains down, it does allow me to continue to rotate into stocks that I feel can make impressive moves on the other side of the big declines - relative strength should be highly noted here! I take comfort that so many inflation indicators have rolled over hard, and that should provide a boost to secular growth stories eventually as the Fed does not have to be as aggressive. For now, the slowdown fears are affecting all sectors as both consumer and corporate spending appears to be cratering. It's all about waiting out the storm now in long term conviction names for now.
Holdings: GTLB COUP SNAP PLAY UPWK ENPH LYFT PATH MDB BMEA UPST IONQ ZENV, cash 0%
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Sold PATH @ 18.37 avg
Bought SYM @ 12.52 avg
Added small to ENPH @ 183.10
A swap of robotics automation companies.
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Sold UPST @ 33.80
Potential balance sheet, loan delinquency, and funding issues could put the whole company at risk. The relative strength has been very poor, and I'll raise funds here for more certain ideas. The company is still very worth watching, however.
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Added to PLAY ENPH LYFT MDB ZENV with funds
I want to stay fully invested and this brings up some lower position sizes.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Last week Down 7.23%
YTD Loss 14.96%
Good luck with new additions....
Saleem
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