Sunday, October 29, 2023

US stock market in correction.....

 MANY major Indices have entered correction or worse....

Russell 2000 is way down

S&P 500 Down 489.82 points or 10.63% since July 2023...IF you annualize it it is really bad...

Mighty Nasdaq is down down down 1803.54 points or 12.48%....in 5 months.....

DOW is only down 3282.41 points or a measly 9.19%.....

Russell 2000 is down " mother of all 18.00% "

Finally NVDA laden SOX is only down down 16.72% based on closing numbers, Intraday they were all down more on Friday....

SO.....

What is going on in US market, 

OR

What CHANGED.....

Market has suddenly realized that " market forces are predicting higher Interest rates for many years to come "

Era of low low Interest rates may be gone FOREVER

The above realization is enough to crush PE....

We are going through PE compression in a hurry...

ALL HIGH PE STOCKS are in more trouble based on current prices which has been knocked down down down

SO PAY ATTENTION to PE of all stocks in every sector....

Do NOT bank on earnings reports UNLESS it IS super super strong & guidance is good also

HOPE is NOT an investing or trading thesis ANYMORE

YES

MUCH has CHANGED

Realize It and adjust immediately.....

Look @ technical health of each stock in your portfolio.....

Are they above 200 DMA, that is a sign of good technical picture....

IS your stock ABOVE 50 DMA...IF IT IS...you are in traders heaven....YOU are very lucky then....

Please ignore my humor or satire, REALITY is very very sobering.....

Good luck with your own thesis & comfort level....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem


2 comments:

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Last week: -5.27% (YTD: +48.59%)
Portfolio Leaders: ZENV
Portfolio Laggards: everything else

It was another tough week for the portfolio as nearly every stock was down along with the market indices. Even though rates fell, prior damage to investor confidence and stock prices precipitated further declines. At this point, I really do believe the worst is behind us, and that we've seen the last Fed rate hike already. Emerging signs of weakness in key sectors affected by interest rates, coupled with a now-declining stock market, should put consumers on more cautious footing, marking the Q3 spending spree as the last hurrah. Q4 GDP expectations of around 1% and further expected moderations in inflation readings means interest rates should likely moderate from here, and I think that sets us up for a few good months of market before the actual economic drag hurts earnings expectations further. It is a time to be prudent with picks, keeping only the most convicted names, those with good chart patterns still or with an upcoming catalyst that could improve the future outlook. I hope everyone keeps their head up and looks for the opportunities as they arise.

Holdings: LYFT(1.5x) PLAY AGCO NVDA PINS SNAP HIMS IONQ TYGO(0.7x) ZENV(0.5x), cash 0%

Stocktrader

Stocks100 said...


Hi Stocktrader,

Last week down 9.97%

YTD UP 74.13%

Saleem