Saturday, June 15, 2024

US stock market ripe for pullback....

 US stock market has been on a tear for a long time...

Nasdaq & S&P 500 has made series of new all time highs.....

NVDA has become poster child of AI growth & euphoria....

AVGO is not far behind.......

This market has become of AI vs rest of the market....

YES...AI has an unbelievable future.....

BUT stocks gains are " too fast too much "

Here is the RSI table as of Friday's close :

AVGO          81.99

NVDA          80.82

Nasdaq       77.38

XLK            77.13

AAPL         75.90

SOX           73.36

S&P 500    72.31

ADBE        71.48

The above is a clear cut picture of a market which IS overbought...

All of the above needs a " digestive period "

Marking time or pullback is a natural result of euphoria...

Internals of the market is giving a clear signal that " health of this market is questionable @ the moment "

It IS important to pay attention to " real message of market "

There is time to be aggressive BUT now is the time to be conservative

Reducing exposure is one way to deal with exuberance which is very prevalent NOW

It IS important to read " traders sentiment which IS euphoric "

Euphoria ends with quick pullback

In any pullback hard earned equity is reduced substantially in a hurry...

It IS highly desirable to " lock in any gains "

When market is oversold then move back in with higher exposure...

Good luck with your own strategy & comfort level...

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem




7 comments:

Stocks100 said...


Hi Stocktrader,

Today we are celebrating our " thanksgiving day " which is known as Eid Ul Adha...thus my a day early BLOG, also based on " urgency of my market message "

Last week UP 8.56%

YTD UP 13.72%

Saleem

Michael said...

Hi Saleem,

Congrats to your excellent week. I followed your suit and sold 50% of my portfolio today and let 50% to drive further as market stretching out.

Michael

Stocks100 said...


Hi Michael,

Thanks for your feedback, much appreciated.

Good luck with 50% exposure....

Saleem

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

Last week: -0.91% (YTD: +16.07%)
Portfolio Leaders: ALAR BMR
Portfolio Laggards: ZENV

In a week where the averages powered higher again (except small caps, again), the portfolio rocketed to start the week but ultimately slipped lower due to low volume weakness in the largest position, a condition I was worried about heading into summer. Overall though, I am pleased with the portfolio composition, especially as we are facing slightly weaker economic data. Relative strength remains key here and I am trying to be ultra-selective about which "weak" stocks I put in the portfolio.

Holdings: HOOD ZENV TWST SPOT ALAR BMR FIVE CVNA AI PSNL, cash 0%

Stocktrader

stocktrader_1996 said...

Hi Saleem,

I hope your day of Thanksgiving - Eid Ul Adha - went very well!

Your conviction with NVDA and others has paid off handsomely!! :)

Stocktrader

Stock Rookie said...

Hi Saleem!
Congrats on your stella week and add to your yearly gains. Thank you for weekend blog! Much appreciated sir!

Stocks100 said...


Hi Stock Rookie,

Thanks for your feedback, made my day definitely!!

Am glad you liked my Sunday message....

Good luck

Saleem