US stock market has finished the-biggest price & PE compression since 2022....
We rallied from end of 2022 to end of 2024 in a straight line, defying GRAVITY & LOGIC
Frothier the stock we ran up to unbelievable levels several 100% higher & higher
NOW...all stocks have come down to realistic levels.....irrespective of all the hoopla associated with their business model....
SO
NOW we have a normal market for 2025.....where gains will be within historical norms of last 50 years
YES
Technology will still lead as it should.....based on...
AI
QUANTUM COMPUTING
BUT there is FEW major OBSTACLE which may create CHALLENGES
TRADE WAR ....... USA VS REST OF THE WORLD
ANNEXATION ....USA vs CANADA, GREENLAND & PANAMA as starting point....
SO DO NOT be too comfortable after this relentless pullback.....ABOVE 2 issues MAY become a major conflict....with GERMANY emerging as MAJOR power.....
Here is my last week :
Last week Down 3.00%
YTD Down 2.12%
Here is my portfolio weighting :
GOOG 16.79%
SHOP 14.91%
TSLA 9.58%
AAPL 9.43%
SMCI 9.29%
NVDA 8.57%
UBER 8.21%
AVGO 8.18%
MSFT 6.86%
MU 4.19%
HOOD 2.06%
SLVU 1.93%
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
8 comments:
Hi Saleem,
Last week: +4.72% (YTD: -27.36%)
Portfolio Leaders: RBRK SOUN(from purchase)
Portfolio Laggards: PSNL
It was a nice rebound week for the portfolio despite the major averages declining. Part of this is just rally from deeply oversold conditions in many of the concentrated portfolio names, but good earnings from another holding (RBRK) helped significantly also. I used the strength to diversify into other names that are exhibiting relative *strength* during this time instead of just being highly oversold. This doesn't always work out correctly, but I felt it was the right moment for the portfolio as my positioning had become much too narrow. I think overall the market can climb the wall of worry from here as major themes of AI productivity gains and consumer spending (besides our recent hiccup) will continue as wage gains made since covid are lasting and real and the inflation outlook should moderate from here. I remain fully invested and looking for new ideas.
Portfolio: DAVE CWAN HCI ODD CVCO PSNL SOUN SERV ATOM, cash 0%
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Sold HCI @ 132.97 on poor price action as the market stabilizes
I feel like the market has discounted most of the potential bad news here and the risk skews to the upside. A lot of base-building charts in speculative names wants me to add here.
Added to PSNL @ 3.69
Added to SOUN @ 9.65
Added to SERV @ 7.22
Added to ATOM @ 5.91
Added to ODD @ 44.97
Added small to CVCO @ 512.29
PSNL got a recent initiation by a brokerage at $8 as their recent partnerships should see accelerating revenue contributions in future quarters and valuation is good here.
SOUN and SERV remained well positioned and growing business in their respective AI-use fields.
ATOM ODD CVCO are seeing chart strength (above 200 DMA) despite semiconductor, beauty, and housing sectors under pressure. That tells me they are seeing continued investor buy interest on dips - a good sign for the future.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good luck with all add-on.
Your take on many stocks are always helpful to many visitors of this BLOG....
Saleem
Hi Salem & Stocktrader,
You both very knowledgeable and very helpful for us on this BLIG.. Much appreciated over the years🙏🙏
Good luck with all the add-on Stocktrader.
Hi Simon,
Thanks for your appreciative message.
Knowledge needs to ne shared otherwise its wasted.....
Saleem
Hi Simon,
Thank you for the kind words!
Every day it feels like the market is more and more comfortable with current levels despite headlines. We are building the foundation upon which to build again...
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Sold SERV @ 6.91 on relative weakness and chart problems (despite what might turn into a double bottom). I think the capital intensity of the business will lead to losses for the foreseeable future and investors might have trouble with that in this market.
Bought GENI @ 10.37 on their business model finally seeing the fruits of prior investments in technology and IP. As sports broadcasts desperately need improved information flow to their viewer base, this company stands well positioned, including supporting the sports betting scene that has grown in popularity in the US.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good luck with GENI
Saleem
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