Markets made another "V" bottom again today.......It IS a good thing !!!!
We tanked 180 after open then went UP 250 then closed @ 207.......
We are still getting "short attack with news of rating CUT......."
We shaved 100 points in 5 minutes to dow 150 ...but fought back AGAIN to regain 50 back to close @ 207......BEST roller coaster ride on TV........
Lot of TV pundits are "pushing HOME BUILDERS,RETAILS & FINANCIALS"...be very careful into buying ...because.... they all have moved 40% already......YES...they are FINE on pullback....
CNBC gets you IN @ TOP ALWAYS.....over & over........
In My portfolio :
SOLD PCZ/PCA.TO..booked a loss of $1.70 per share.....reason ...earnings were short due to hedge...and they will be doing financing by issuing more shares.....as per CC......
Bought 20% more AAPL and my cost went UP to $133.50......
AAPL closed UP $3.18..rating 100/45..target $152.40
AGU closed UP $2.54..rating 45/30..target $67.89
AKNS down 30 cents ..not rated......
CSIQ down 7 cents... rating 100/95..rated for breakout @ $19.15 target $23.08
LDK down $1.62..rating 45/70...target $40.44...
MA UP $18..rating 20/30..target $221.57....
UEX.TO UP 20 cents..not rated......
In other stocks :
NYX ..rating 70/45..target $82.02...
RIMM... rating80/40..target $105.48....
After hour :
GOOG missed both top & bottom line consensus.....down around $23......
ISRG shot UP $56...on great ER.......
ps....I follow 70% FA...30% TA...plus tape analysis to make my buy or sell decisions ......If I am NOT comfortable with FA...price of a stock do NOT matter to me......so please understand this as part of my decision making process...I rarely trade intraday.....
Yes.....I do have "mental sell points based on tape action...for all stocks........
I am NOT "emotionally tied to any stock...so a buy or sell is done in a nano-second"
Why am I explaining this...because I buy any stock to make money...if that objective is NOT attainable & tape is sluggish.....then it IS time to move ON........
Please make your OWN decision to be with any stock....I DO have a "different style of trading which has my own LOGIC to IT "
I feel bad when some people are "overweight one stock only...which I happen to OWN in a diversified portfolio"
I manage my RISK based on my style of investing......which IS to own minimum 5 stocks !!!!
Markets are rotating very quickly from one sector to another......so DIVERSIFICATION helps ME !!!!
I do NOT believe that Solar is "out of favour"...it is left behind for now ..because quick money is being made in housing,financial & retail.......
Look for solar to be in VOGUE as early as this friday $$$$$
Please KNOW your stocks well & stay in many sectors to take advantage of sector rotations....which MAY change every other day ........
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Markets showing confidence in FED...fighting back from SLUMP !!!
Market slumped @ open.......thanks to rating agencies...jobless claims rising..inflation showing higher read......
S&P 500 went to 1334.08......
It is nice to see that the "trio of above cocktail...did NOT sink the markets deeper"
Have we SEEN the bottom already......looks like it @ this stage.......
As I always say...TAPE never LIES.......
If market is holding...then market is holding......
There has been major margin related selling by hedgies & retail in this protracted selling since october.......
Margin debt has fallen also.........
In my portfolio :
MA came out with "way better than expected EPS & Sales"...also guiding with confidence for a double digit GROWTH......their MARGINS are improving worldwide.....they are confirming that people use MORE credit cards in times of distress...which is the-case in US......
CC was extremely thorough in details & addressed all the ISSUES as played on MB , CNBC & by analyst...all part of opening message...in plain english...they said they ARE the beneficiary of credit growth without the RISK associated with it......
MA UP $25.20....on heavy volume of almost 6 million shares in less than 2 hours of trading......
AAPL UP $1.00 ......
AGU UP $ 1.51...
AKNS down 13 cents
CSIQ down 11 cents
LDK down 99 cents
PCA.TO down 72 cents..... ER was below..due to liquidation of their hedge....
UEX.TO UP 2 cents
@ 11.34 AM the following are green :
VMW,SNDK,SIRF,POT,IGT,CTRP,WYNN,LVS,NMX,
ISRG,DRYS,EWY,SOHU,PHM,TOL.
Good luck on rest of the day.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
S&P 500 went to 1334.08......
It is nice to see that the "trio of above cocktail...did NOT sink the markets deeper"
Have we SEEN the bottom already......looks like it @ this stage.......
As I always say...TAPE never LIES.......
If market is holding...then market is holding......
There has been major margin related selling by hedgies & retail in this protracted selling since october.......
Margin debt has fallen also.........
In my portfolio :
MA came out with "way better than expected EPS & Sales"...also guiding with confidence for a double digit GROWTH......their MARGINS are improving worldwide.....they are confirming that people use MORE credit cards in times of distress...which is the-case in US......
CC was extremely thorough in details & addressed all the ISSUES as played on MB , CNBC & by analyst...all part of opening message...in plain english...they said they ARE the beneficiary of credit growth without the RISK associated with it......
MA UP $25.20....on heavy volume of almost 6 million shares in less than 2 hours of trading......
AAPL UP $1.00 ......
AGU UP $ 1.51...
AKNS down 13 cents
CSIQ down 11 cents
LDK down 99 cents
PCA.TO down 72 cents..... ER was below..due to liquidation of their hedge....
UEX.TO UP 2 cents
@ 11.34 AM the following are green :
VMW,SNDK,SIRF,POT,IGT,CTRP,WYNN,LVS,NMX,
ISRG,DRYS,EWY,SOHU,PHM,TOL.
Good luck on rest of the day.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Rating agencies are MIGHTIER than..... Fed ????
Fed DID the "right thing to support Investors/business/consumers & homeowners.....
Will this effort by fed will be marginalized by rating agencies......????
I am betting NO WAY.......
Fed strategy & support will matter in the end......???
And the END is WHEN ????
I am glad you asked......
It COULD be as early as this friday ???
Why so quickly ????
Because thursday may be controlled by rating agencies @ open.......
BUT ..BUT..but...
By thursday closing time........
Guess what ???
Shorts will be covering by close ???
Why ????
Because on friday....Good Jobs report will knock those shorts "out of the game"
IF...this scenario "pans out".......
Then "shorts have close link to info FLOW"......
What else is new on wall street...all strategy is based on "inside information FLOW".....
In my portfolio :
AAPL & CSIQ ended green......
AKNS,AGU,LDK,MA,PCZ & UEX.TO were RED......
Before open.......
MA is reporting ...expecting a beat & in-line guidance......I hope !!!
PCZ is reporting...expecting a beat & better than consensus guidance....I hope !!!
In other stocks :
AMZN margins under pressure so is down $8++
MELI continued its downtrend......down $5+++
DRYS continued it RUNUP UP $5+++
AH GOOG will report "better than expected ER"......
This market tape..... requires PATIENCE & CONVICTION........
Due diligence is an absolute MUST...know FA/TA plus TAPE analysis.......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Will this effort by fed will be marginalized by rating agencies......????
I am betting NO WAY.......
Fed strategy & support will matter in the end......???
And the END is WHEN ????
I am glad you asked......
It COULD be as early as this friday ???
Why so quickly ????
Because thursday may be controlled by rating agencies @ open.......
BUT ..BUT..but...
By thursday closing time........
Guess what ???
Shorts will be covering by close ???
Why ????
Because on friday....Good Jobs report will knock those shorts "out of the game"
IF...this scenario "pans out".......
Then "shorts have close link to info FLOW"......
What else is new on wall street...all strategy is based on "inside information FLOW".....
In my portfolio :
AAPL & CSIQ ended green......
AKNS,AGU,LDK,MA,PCZ & UEX.TO were RED......
Before open.......
MA is reporting ...expecting a beat & in-line guidance......I hope !!!
PCZ is reporting...expecting a beat & better than consensus guidance....I hope !!!
In other stocks :
AMZN margins under pressure so is down $8++
MELI continued its downtrend......down $5+++
DRYS continued it RUNUP UP $5+++
AH GOOG will report "better than expected ER"......
This market tape..... requires PATIENCE & CONVICTION........
Due diligence is an absolute MUST...know FA/TA plus TAPE analysis.......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Fed .50% Cuts are "RIGHT on the money """
Fed is on the side of the investors,business,consumers in a "big way"
Fed cut both rates by .50 basis on fed funds & discount rate......
What a gift to charge UP US & world economy.......
Expect a worldwide rally......
We should close near HIGH of the day $$$$$
Saleem
Fed cut both rates by .50 basis on fed funds & discount rate......
What a gift to charge UP US & world economy.......
Expect a worldwide rally......
We should close near HIGH of the day $$$$$
Saleem
.5% CUT...Will it FLOAT !!!
Markets are showing slight negative bias going into fed rate decision @ 2.15PM......
GDP report was showing slowing growth of .6% vs expectations of 1.2%.......
GDP report was NOT a surprise to those who have noticed a slowdown in US economy......
GDP is expected to show a similar performance in Q1......
ADP survey report is showing a healthy growth of jobs.....which will be confirmed by jobs report on friday ?????
My bet is that fed will reduce fed funds rate by 50 basis.....& it will float the markets...so NO sinking spell after the announcement.......
If that happens then we can safely have the thesis that we have SEEN the-LOWS in the markets.......
In my portfolio :
AAPL,CSIQ, are showing colour GREEN....
LDK,AGU,AKNS,MA,PCA.TO,UEX.TO are in RED......
@11.29 the following are green :
DRYS,RIMM,BRCM,SNDK,VMW,ISRG,AMZN,FMCN.
@3PM I will post my reaction to fed decision in BLOG......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
GDP report was showing slowing growth of .6% vs expectations of 1.2%.......
GDP report was NOT a surprise to those who have noticed a slowdown in US economy......
GDP is expected to show a similar performance in Q1......
ADP survey report is showing a healthy growth of jobs.....which will be confirmed by jobs report on friday ?????
My bet is that fed will reduce fed funds rate by 50 basis.....& it will float the markets...so NO sinking spell after the announcement.......
If that happens then we can safely have the thesis that we have SEEN the-LOWS in the markets.......
In my portfolio :
AAPL,CSIQ, are showing colour GREEN....
LDK,AGU,AKNS,MA,PCA.TO,UEX.TO are in RED......
@11.29 the following are green :
DRYS,RIMM,BRCM,SNDK,VMW,ISRG,AMZN,FMCN.
@3PM I will post my reaction to fed decision in BLOG......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Markets showing confidence in FED...closed near HIGH again !!!
Markets are showing stability by closing near high of the day again......
Fed MAYBE.....is in sync with market expectations of 50 basis cut......
50 basis cut by fed will help business,consumers & homeowners and will help in turning this economy around......
After close YHOO came in with a "weak guidance & wimpy cost cutting measures"
YHOO down over $2 AH.......
In my portfolio :
AAPL UP $1.53..rating 100/85..target $147.50
AGU.TO down 15 cents...rating 40/30..taget $66.74
AKNS UP 51 cents...not rated......
CSIQ UP $1.02..rating 85/85 breakout @ $19.47..target 23.37
LDK down 72 cents..rating 40/95... target $47.82
MA UP $2.46....rating 50/30..target $197.98
PCA.TO UP 43 cents..rating 85/30..target $50.34
UEX.TO down 20 cents...not rated
In other stock :
RIMM..rating 55/75...target $102.24
Evaluate your trades/positions in view of YOUR take of market reaction as a result of FED decision.....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Fed MAYBE.....is in sync with market expectations of 50 basis cut......
50 basis cut by fed will help business,consumers & homeowners and will help in turning this economy around......
After close YHOO came in with a "weak guidance & wimpy cost cutting measures"
YHOO down over $2 AH.......
In my portfolio :
AAPL UP $1.53..rating 100/85..target $147.50
AGU.TO down 15 cents...rating 40/30..taget $66.74
AKNS UP 51 cents...not rated......
CSIQ UP $1.02..rating 85/85 breakout @ $19.47..target 23.37
LDK down 72 cents..rating 40/95... target $47.82
MA UP $2.46....rating 50/30..target $197.98
PCA.TO UP 43 cents..rating 85/30..target $50.34
UEX.TO down 20 cents...not rated
In other stock :
RIMM..rating 55/75...target $102.24
Evaluate your trades/positions in view of YOUR take of market reaction as a result of FED decision.....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Markets near high of the day ..so far !!!!
Markets are trying to build some upward momentum......
Markets wants to rally into fed feeding .....
Why ???
Because market is pretty confident that fed will do the right thing......
& what is that..... right thing...you ask ???
Cut fed funds rate by another 50 basis ......
See..there is a "real reason for the stability in the markets NOW".....
So...try to enjoy the colour "green for a change"...who knows when it MAY disappear !!!!
In my portfolio :
AAPL UP $1.15....PJ has nice things to say today....
AGU.TO UP 84 cents.....
AKNS UP 74 cents...
CSIQ UP $1.01....
LDK UP 30 cents ...
MA Down $1.12 cents...
PCA.TO UP 7 cents...
UEX.TO down 15 cents.....
My long position in Canadian $ has been working ever since...today it is UP 56 tick and it is trading above parity with US$ last quote 100.14...means Canadians have to pay only 99.86 for 1 US$......enough of genius talk !!!
@ 11.33AM the following are green:
CMED (getting close to high),TSL,POT,TSO,WYNN,LVS,
NVDA,NYX,VLO,SPWR,FSLR,WFR,SNE,DRYS,FWLT,
SOLF,STP,NTRI,ASTI,JASO.
Todays negative tape includes :
BIDU,ISRG,AMZN,ZRAN & VMW........
Good luck on rest of the day.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Markets wants to rally into fed feeding .....
Why ???
Because market is pretty confident that fed will do the right thing......
& what is that..... right thing...you ask ???
Cut fed funds rate by another 50 basis ......
See..there is a "real reason for the stability in the markets NOW".....
So...try to enjoy the colour "green for a change"...who knows when it MAY disappear !!!!
In my portfolio :
AAPL UP $1.15....PJ has nice things to say today....
AGU.TO UP 84 cents.....
AKNS UP 74 cents...
CSIQ UP $1.01....
LDK UP 30 cents ...
MA Down $1.12 cents...
PCA.TO UP 7 cents...
UEX.TO down 15 cents.....
My long position in Canadian $ has been working ever since...today it is UP 56 tick and it is trading above parity with US$ last quote 100.14...means Canadians have to pay only 99.86 for 1 US$......enough of genius talk !!!
@ 11.33AM the following are green:
CMED (getting close to high),TSL,POT,TSO,WYNN,LVS,
NVDA,NYX,VLO,SPWR,FSLR,WFR,SNE,DRYS,FWLT,
SOLF,STP,NTRI,ASTI,JASO.
Todays negative tape includes :
BIDU,ISRG,AMZN,ZRAN & VMW........
Good luck on rest of the day.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Monday, January 28, 2008
Markets closed near HIGH of the day $$$$
Markets behaved extremely well today..in spite of new homes number !!!!
Sector rotation is happening......
Some of the beaten down sectors are rebounding in a big way......financials,home builders & retail are in vogue.....
This sector should be considered after a "normal pullback"
Many AH ER are being taken as negative either due to miss by revenue/EPS or guidance which is below....to name a few which is being hit HARD are VMW,ZRAN,SNDK......
In my portfolio :
AGU UP $2.52..rating 35/30.. target $66.14
MA down $4.43..rating 45/40..target $200.57
CSIQ down $1.11..rating 75/100..target $22.87
LDK down 46 cents..rating 65/55..target $49.53
AKNS down 42 cents..Not rated.....
UEX.TO down 4 cents..Not rated...
AAPL unchanged..rating 90/90... target $140.94...
PCZ (PCA.TO) UP 45 cents ( in Toronto)..rating 75/45...target $50.33...
Other stocks :
FMCN 55/45..target $52.93.....
Agriculture is on fire again...POT,BG,MOS & AGU.....
RIMM,CMED,ISRG staying strong......
MELI put on fire down $12......
NYX,NDAQ,OXPS strong....
FSLR,WFR bucking the downtrend in most solar stocks.....
Please do your OWN due diligence.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Sector rotation is happening......
Some of the beaten down sectors are rebounding in a big way......financials,home builders & retail are in vogue.....
This sector should be considered after a "normal pullback"
Many AH ER are being taken as negative either due to miss by revenue/EPS or guidance which is below....to name a few which is being hit HARD are VMW,ZRAN,SNDK......
In my portfolio :
AGU UP $2.52..rating 35/30.. target $66.14
MA down $4.43..rating 45/40..target $200.57
CSIQ down $1.11..rating 75/100..target $22.87
LDK down 46 cents..rating 65/55..target $49.53
AKNS down 42 cents..Not rated.....
UEX.TO down 4 cents..Not rated...
AAPL unchanged..rating 90/90... target $140.94...
PCZ (PCA.TO) UP 45 cents ( in Toronto)..rating 75/45...target $50.33...
Other stocks :
FMCN 55/45..target $52.93.....
Agriculture is on fire again...POT,BG,MOS & AGU.....
RIMM,CMED,ISRG staying strong......
MELI put on fire down $12......
NYX,NDAQ,OXPS strong....
FSLR,WFR bucking the downtrend in most solar stocks.....
Please do your OWN due diligence.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Why Markets are GREEN..so far ????
US markets are showing resiliency again...in spite of bad news on new housing inventory.....
New housing prices dropped 10%+++...a good sign to liquidate 9+ months inventory...
US markets are showing every sign that a "major bottom MAY be in place".....
Markets were down sharply after open..dow being down almost 100.....
60 minutes last night showed how bad housing market IS in CA,NV,FL..where people have simply walked out of their homes ?????
Business Week has a front cover headline about "road to recession".......all this is a "sure sign that the worse case scenario has been discounted by the markets"?????
In my portfolio :
As planned and rare announcement of my intention.....I added 33% AAPL @ open ..price paid $128.01...which brought my cost down to $133.28......
AAPL UP $2.42.....
AGU UP $1.52.....
MA down $5.71...
CSIQ UP 8 cents...
LDK down 74 cents...
AKNS down 2 cents...
UEX.TO UP 6 cents.....
PCA.TO down 10 cents....
@11.23 AM the following are green :
CMED,NYX,NMX (takeover by CME),RIMM,DELL(downgraded),AMAT,
POT,TSO,WYNN,WYN,LVS,VLO,ABX,SPWR,FSLR,ISRG,BIDU,GRMN,
GLW (good ER & guidance).
Good luck on rest of the day.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
New housing prices dropped 10%+++...a good sign to liquidate 9+ months inventory...
US markets are showing every sign that a "major bottom MAY be in place".....
Markets were down sharply after open..dow being down almost 100.....
60 minutes last night showed how bad housing market IS in CA,NV,FL..where people have simply walked out of their homes ?????
Business Week has a front cover headline about "road to recession".......all this is a "sure sign that the worse case scenario has been discounted by the markets"?????
In my portfolio :
As planned and rare announcement of my intention.....I added 33% AAPL @ open ..price paid $128.01...which brought my cost down to $133.28......
AAPL UP $2.42.....
AGU UP $1.52.....
MA down $5.71...
CSIQ UP 8 cents...
LDK down 74 cents...
AKNS down 2 cents...
UEX.TO UP 6 cents.....
PCA.TO down 10 cents....
@11.23 AM the following are green :
CMED,NYX,NMX (takeover by CME),RIMM,DELL(downgraded),AMAT,
POT,TSO,WYNN,WYN,LVS,VLO,ABX,SPWR,FSLR,ISRG,BIDU,GRMN,
GLW (good ER & guidance).
Good luck on rest of the day.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Markets trading range UP,DOWN or FLAT ????
Markets are trying to figure out the uncertainty which has been created by sub-prime mess....
Markets till this day since august has NOT figured out what is the "ultimate cost of this mess"
Markets are also trying to figure out...what will be the worldwide impact of the credit/housing mess........
Worldwide economies will be impacted due to US slowdown.......the debate & uncertainty of "how much" is what troubling markets worldwide......
Markets "hates uncertainty"......and there is "plenty of uncertainty to go around"
The big question is :
-Is US going to go into recession......if the answer is yes then the next question is for how long....
-Then the related issue is IF US goes into recession...then how much it will impact China,India,Brazil,Russia & Europe........
So far......Markets is saying that US will go into recession & there will be an impact on rest of the world economies.......
So let us deal with this conclusion........
S&P 500 went DOWN to 1270...with this FEAR.......
What happens to S&P 500 if the fear of recession becomes REALITY......
S&P 500 can easily go to 1100.......a further drop of 13.3% from recent LOW ????
So...now deal with the issue of HOW we can avoid "recession"
Recession can be avoided if fed cuts another 50 basis on wed.....plus we approve economic stimulus package & check is IN the mail by May.........
So....if the check is in the mail in May...then the economic impact will be in June......
All the economic reports which covers the period of June will report in July that economy is improving........
Once we report improvement in July...then confidence in US economy & its impact worldwide will be evident.......
Markets will then start reflecting the increased confidence in economy worldwide from Aug onwards........
So my thesis clearly takes us to july period as the "first evidence of improving economy"
So...what does the markets DO from Jan 28th to July 31st ....a long SIX months lag time?????
This is a several trillions $ question.........?????
This is how I see IT...... a guesswork only...I hope !!!!
S&P 500 will be range bound...with a DOWNSIDE potential to 1200 & UPSIDE to 1450 area ????
S&P 500 closed friday @ 1330.61...........
So we have a trading range of 250 S&P 500 points area......
Based on friday close.....we have an upside target of another possible 119 points on S&P 500......
In other words Dow upside target is somewhere 13,300 area......
So...we are dealing with a potential Upside market gain of another 9% area from here.......
Once we hit S&P 500 to 1450 area........a MAJOR pullback will set in ??????
Why do I think that we have a potential 9% more on the UPSIDE first ?????/
Because Fed & White house will do their best to avoid recession.........
Whether that effort will give US the desired result ?????
Only TIME will tell !!!!!!
We are also entering slower economic growth time in US between now & July......
From Q3 US economy is stronger with Q4 being the strongest.......
So after initial "euphoria of fed cuts & stimulus package".........
Markets will remain range bound till july........
Range of markets will be dictated by economic reports from here till July........
So...until uncertainty remains about economy....
Markets hates uncertainty.......
So markets will remain "jittery"..until there is CLARITY about economy....
So...how one invest/trade in this type of market.......
Homework & knowing your stocks extremely well will be the deciding factor...70% FA & 30% TA plus tape monitoring will rule.......
Lot of strong stocks are on "fire sale".....so should be bought here & accumulated for both long term & short term trades........
Markets will be "extremely volatile"...so take advantage of volatility.....
Good luck on dealing with current UNCERTAIN times in the markets.......
Please understand & KNOW the downside of every stock you buy....so you have very HIGH comfort level with your exposure.......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Markets till this day since august has NOT figured out what is the "ultimate cost of this mess"
Markets are also trying to figure out...what will be the worldwide impact of the credit/housing mess........
Worldwide economies will be impacted due to US slowdown.......the debate & uncertainty of "how much" is what troubling markets worldwide......
Markets "hates uncertainty"......and there is "plenty of uncertainty to go around"
The big question is :
-Is US going to go into recession......if the answer is yes then the next question is for how long....
-Then the related issue is IF US goes into recession...then how much it will impact China,India,Brazil,Russia & Europe........
So far......Markets is saying that US will go into recession & there will be an impact on rest of the world economies.......
So let us deal with this conclusion........
S&P 500 went DOWN to 1270...with this FEAR.......
What happens to S&P 500 if the fear of recession becomes REALITY......
S&P 500 can easily go to 1100.......a further drop of 13.3% from recent LOW ????
So...now deal with the issue of HOW we can avoid "recession"
Recession can be avoided if fed cuts another 50 basis on wed.....plus we approve economic stimulus package & check is IN the mail by May.........
So....if the check is in the mail in May...then the economic impact will be in June......
All the economic reports which covers the period of June will report in July that economy is improving........
Once we report improvement in July...then confidence in US economy & its impact worldwide will be evident.......
Markets will then start reflecting the increased confidence in economy worldwide from Aug onwards........
So my thesis clearly takes us to july period as the "first evidence of improving economy"
So...what does the markets DO from Jan 28th to July 31st ....a long SIX months lag time?????
This is a several trillions $ question.........?????
This is how I see IT...... a guesswork only...I hope !!!!
S&P 500 will be range bound...with a DOWNSIDE potential to 1200 & UPSIDE to 1450 area ????
S&P 500 closed friday @ 1330.61...........
So we have a trading range of 250 S&P 500 points area......
Based on friday close.....we have an upside target of another possible 119 points on S&P 500......
In other words Dow upside target is somewhere 13,300 area......
So...we are dealing with a potential Upside market gain of another 9% area from here.......
Once we hit S&P 500 to 1450 area........a MAJOR pullback will set in ??????
Why do I think that we have a potential 9% more on the UPSIDE first ?????/
Because Fed & White house will do their best to avoid recession.........
Whether that effort will give US the desired result ?????
Only TIME will tell !!!!!!
We are also entering slower economic growth time in US between now & July......
From Q3 US economy is stronger with Q4 being the strongest.......
So after initial "euphoria of fed cuts & stimulus package".........
Markets will remain range bound till july........
Range of markets will be dictated by economic reports from here till July........
So...until uncertainty remains about economy....
Markets hates uncertainty.......
So markets will remain "jittery"..until there is CLARITY about economy....
So...how one invest/trade in this type of market.......
Homework & knowing your stocks extremely well will be the deciding factor...70% FA & 30% TA plus tape monitoring will rule.......
Lot of strong stocks are on "fire sale".....so should be bought here & accumulated for both long term & short term trades........
Markets will be "extremely volatile"...so take advantage of volatility.....
Good luck on dealing with current UNCERTAIN times in the markets.......
Please understand & KNOW the downside of every stock you buy....so you have very HIGH comfort level with your exposure.......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Saturday, January 26, 2008
MOMENTUM stocks for "BEARISH tape action "
The following stocks are showing momentum.....when markets are going UP.Please limit your loss as these stocks are very "volatile in this difficult tape".Take "quick profit".......or else see it disappear in a hurry......
FWLT,GRMN,CMED,LDK,CSIQ,MA,AGU,POT,MOS,BG,FSLR,JASO,
STP,AKNS,AAPL,GOOG,BIDU,RIMM,BRCM,TSL,ICE,CTRP,
NYX,NMX,ABX,GG,AUY,KGC,LVS,WYNN,SPWR,ISRG,WFR,
AMZN,DRYS,SOHU,VMW.
Will post on sunday by 10AM.
Please do your OWN due diligence & maintain your OWN comfort level with this UNPREDICTABLE markets.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
FWLT,GRMN,CMED,LDK,CSIQ,MA,AGU,POT,MOS,BG,FSLR,JASO,
STP,AKNS,AAPL,GOOG,BIDU,RIMM,BRCM,TSL,ICE,CTRP,
NYX,NMX,ABX,GG,AUY,KGC,LVS,WYNN,SPWR,ISRG,WFR,
AMZN,DRYS,SOHU,VMW.
Will post on sunday by 10AM.
Please do your OWN due diligence & maintain your OWN comfort level with this UNPREDICTABLE markets.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Technically STRONG stocks for "BEARISH tape action "
The following stocks are showing technical strength based on various formations.Please check FA & news to get a balanced view.Always position to limit your loss.
JRJC,BRCM,FFIV,RVBD,ELX,DHI,HD,ALTR,PHM,ISIL,WYNN,ANAD,
R,BWLD,WNR,CTX,RSH,LM.
TSX ( Toronto Stock Exchange)
WJA.A,CFP,ET,RCS.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
JRJC,BRCM,FFIV,RVBD,ELX,DHI,HD,ALTR,PHM,ISIL,WYNN,ANAD,
R,BWLD,WNR,CTX,RSH,LM.
TSX ( Toronto Stock Exchange)
WJA.A,CFP,ET,RCS.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Technically WEAK stocks for "BEARISH tape action "
The following stocks are technically WEAK based on various formations.Please check FA for a balanced view.Please position to limit your loss always.
BUD,GLW,AAPL,STX,SCHW,CHU,DLB,OXY,CHK,APA.
TSX ( Toronto Stock Exchange)
TCM,IMO,CG,CRY,FNX,CRG,CAE,FM,CGS.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
BUD,GLW,AAPL,STX,SCHW,CHU,DLB,OXY,CHK,APA.
TSX ( Toronto Stock Exchange)
TCM,IMO,CG,CRY,FNX,CRG,CAE,FM,CGS.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Friday, January 25, 2008
Markets pulled back....on old issues !!!
Markets started off strong on MSFT ER......but same old..same old issues were played again....so market closed near LOW of the day !!!!!
European bank writedown...ING bank among few mentioned......????
How much Fed will cut again ???
Did fed panicked on SOGEN rogue trader $7+ billion fiasco......????
Oh.....Europe stock markets stabilized without any ECB cut ???
What most commentators on CNBC forget that US fed 75 basis cut ..saved world markets.....
I have a "hunch" that there has been horrendous loss by many QUANT funds...and they are in the process of liquidating their margin calls...still.......that is the-reason that rally is being sold....
Markets have gone through relentless royal drubbings...but they are NOT rebounding in any meaningful manner YET......
In every bear markets ...stocks DO rally in a sustained manner.....then retrace 50% gain Again & again.......
I am sure Fed is aware of the distress of quant funds ????
In my portfolio :
AGU down 41 cents..rating 50/45..1st target $63.84..
MA UP $1.65...rating 55/30..1st target $199.80..
CSIQ down 61 cents..rating 70/60 breakout @ $19.16..1st target $22.20..
LDK UP $2.25...rating 70/55...1st target $45.88..
AKNS UP 21 cents...not rated.....
UEX.TO down 3 cents..not rated...
AAPL down $5.59..rating 100/90..1st target $140.35...
PCZ (PCA.TO..I purchased in toronto in Canadian $)down 66 cents ..I was down $1.29 from my purchase price..rating 60/45...1st target $48.64......
In other stocks :
RIMM rating 90/45..1st target $100.59....
By 10 AM Saturday I will post list of technically weak/strong plus momentum stocks....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
European bank writedown...ING bank among few mentioned......????
How much Fed will cut again ???
Did fed panicked on SOGEN rogue trader $7+ billion fiasco......????
Oh.....Europe stock markets stabilized without any ECB cut ???
What most commentators on CNBC forget that US fed 75 basis cut ..saved world markets.....
I have a "hunch" that there has been horrendous loss by many QUANT funds...and they are in the process of liquidating their margin calls...still.......that is the-reason that rally is being sold....
Markets have gone through relentless royal drubbings...but they are NOT rebounding in any meaningful manner YET......
In every bear markets ...stocks DO rally in a sustained manner.....then retrace 50% gain Again & again.......
I am sure Fed is aware of the distress of quant funds ????
In my portfolio :
AGU down 41 cents..rating 50/45..1st target $63.84..
MA UP $1.65...rating 55/30..1st target $199.80..
CSIQ down 61 cents..rating 70/60 breakout @ $19.16..1st target $22.20..
LDK UP $2.25...rating 70/55...1st target $45.88..
AKNS UP 21 cents...not rated.....
UEX.TO down 3 cents..not rated...
AAPL down $5.59..rating 100/90..1st target $140.35...
PCZ (PCA.TO..I purchased in toronto in Canadian $)down 66 cents ..I was down $1.29 from my purchase price..rating 60/45...1st target $48.64......
In other stocks :
RIMM rating 90/45..1st target $100.59....
By 10 AM Saturday I will post list of technically weak/strong plus momentum stocks....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Markets are DOWN ?????
It is interesting that today markets are down "slightly...& everybody is doing Psycho Analysis as to WHY ????
Markets being down after two days of "huge gain".....is NOT a news worth reporting......
Who said markets should be in "green from open to close on third day also"
We ALL need to understand that "markets are NOT here to fulfil our emotional need of getting euphoric UP move everyday"
As I have repeated so many times......
Nobody can time the markets.......so why try so hard ????
Energy should be dedicated on finding right sectors & right stocks @ compelling price......
But...we would rather whine about markets day IN & day OUT.........
I tried very hard to figure out what was happening with markets since december.....because it was "tumbling daily with TRIPLE digit losses & taking all the support OUT"...@ best we all failed to come UP with a real rational reason.......
Now...we have the wisdom of three day moves since the LOW.........if it IS the-LOW.....
I do NOT know the answer to any of these issues.......
I am continuing to do my due diligence and see LOT of stocks @ attractive prices..including those that I have owned since december.......
This gives me "conviction"..........knowing what is attractive prices...........
In my portfolio :
I bought PCZ...this is among the biggest diversified oil company in Canada..they report on 31st before open.....they have refinery,gas station & exploration projects........my cost $47.25.....
PCZ is trading UP 13 cents ..but I am down 25 cents.....
AGU UP $1.94..
MA down $1.38..
CSIQ is UP 43 cents..
LDK UP $1.16...
AKNS UP 72 cents...
UEX down 7 cents...
AAPL down $2.30....
@11.34 AM the following are green :
CMED,BRCM ( good ER),TSL,ICE,POT,TSO,CTRP,BIDU,LVS,
NMX,VLO,ABX(new high),SPWR(upgrade),FSLR,ISRG,WFR,
AMZN,IFN,DRYS,GOOG,FWLT,RIMM,STP.
Good luck on doing your OWN FA/TA plus tape reading...which builds confidence & conviction......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Markets being down after two days of "huge gain".....is NOT a news worth reporting......
Who said markets should be in "green from open to close on third day also"
We ALL need to understand that "markets are NOT here to fulfil our emotional need of getting euphoric UP move everyday"
As I have repeated so many times......
Nobody can time the markets.......so why try so hard ????
Energy should be dedicated on finding right sectors & right stocks @ compelling price......
But...we would rather whine about markets day IN & day OUT.........
I tried very hard to figure out what was happening with markets since december.....because it was "tumbling daily with TRIPLE digit losses & taking all the support OUT"...@ best we all failed to come UP with a real rational reason.......
Now...we have the wisdom of three day moves since the LOW.........if it IS the-LOW.....
I do NOT know the answer to any of these issues.......
I am continuing to do my due diligence and see LOT of stocks @ attractive prices..including those that I have owned since december.......
This gives me "conviction"..........knowing what is attractive prices...........
In my portfolio :
I bought PCZ...this is among the biggest diversified oil company in Canada..they report on 31st before open.....they have refinery,gas station & exploration projects........my cost $47.25.....
PCZ is trading UP 13 cents ..but I am down 25 cents.....
AGU UP $1.94..
MA down $1.38..
CSIQ is UP 43 cents..
LDK UP $1.16...
AKNS UP 72 cents...
UEX down 7 cents...
AAPL down $2.30....
@11.34 AM the following are green :
CMED,BRCM ( good ER),TSL,ICE,POT,TSO,CTRP,BIDU,LVS,
NMX,VLO,ABX(new high),SPWR(upgrade),FSLR,ISRG,WFR,
AMZN,IFN,DRYS,GOOG,FWLT,RIMM,STP.
Good luck on doing your OWN FA/TA plus tape reading...which builds confidence & conviction......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Markets lovin'it .....from Fed & White House $$$$
Market are in "trance".......
Thanks to Fed & White House... all action & NO talk.......
Action is what... wall street needed...all along !!!!
Market gave a"green thumbs UP...to Stimulus package "
Market liked the goodies which was in "economic stimulus"
They are increasing the ceiling to $700,000+ on mortgages from $400,000+.....a direct benefit to home builders , mortgage lenders....plus Home Depot of the world......
In My portfolio :
My Canadian $ long position went into "overdrive by shooting UP against US$ by 1.96 cents...this is a mother of all moves......as you recall I switched @ 97.85 on tuesday..today it closed @ 99.67 so my net gain in two days is 1.82 cents which is a gain of 1.86% for my entire portfolio valuation...not bad for a person who does NOT trade currency.......
AGU UP $4.27..rating 75/45...1st target $64...
MA down 81 cents..rating 80/70..1st target $208.90..
CSIQ UP $1.64..rating 90/55..breakout $19.16 (already trading higher AH)..1st target $22.18..
LDK UP $2.64..rating 80/55..1st target $45.98....
AKNS UP $1.08...not rated.....
UEX.TO unchanged...target $19.75...
AAPL UP 72 cents for me..rating 100/90..1st target $147.21......
In other stocks :
TKC 65/30..1st target $25.20...
VIP 85/45..1st target $36.06...
MSFT came in with a BEAT & in-line guidance..gave a major boost to the markets in AH......
All techs were flying & Futures shot UP.......
Booking profit is a very important tool to enhance portfolio returns...I do IT in a very "unemotional manner"
All this effort .......IS to make money...the only way I know is to SELL & LOCK profit...which has been missing in the last 3 weeks....as we ALL have piled UP huge LOSS.....
You can always buy the same stock again & again.......
Good luck on friday.....it will be "great if we can get 3 green close in a row"
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Thanks to Fed & White House... all action & NO talk.......
Action is what... wall street needed...all along !!!!
Market gave a"green thumbs UP...to Stimulus package "
Market liked the goodies which was in "economic stimulus"
They are increasing the ceiling to $700,000+ on mortgages from $400,000+.....a direct benefit to home builders , mortgage lenders....plus Home Depot of the world......
In My portfolio :
My Canadian $ long position went into "overdrive by shooting UP against US$ by 1.96 cents...this is a mother of all moves......as you recall I switched @ 97.85 on tuesday..today it closed @ 99.67 so my net gain in two days is 1.82 cents which is a gain of 1.86% for my entire portfolio valuation...not bad for a person who does NOT trade currency.......
AGU UP $4.27..rating 75/45...1st target $64...
MA down 81 cents..rating 80/70..1st target $208.90..
CSIQ UP $1.64..rating 90/55..breakout $19.16 (already trading higher AH)..1st target $22.18..
LDK UP $2.64..rating 80/55..1st target $45.98....
AKNS UP $1.08...not rated.....
UEX.TO unchanged...target $19.75...
AAPL UP 72 cents for me..rating 100/90..1st target $147.21......
In other stocks :
TKC 65/30..1st target $25.20...
VIP 85/45..1st target $36.06...
MSFT came in with a BEAT & in-line guidance..gave a major boost to the markets in AH......
All techs were flying & Futures shot UP.......
Booking profit is a very important tool to enhance portfolio returns...I do IT in a very "unemotional manner"
All this effort .......IS to make money...the only way I know is to SELL & LOCK profit...which has been missing in the last 3 weeks....as we ALL have piled UP huge LOSS.....
You can always buy the same stock again & again.......
Good luck on friday.....it will be "great if we can get 3 green close in a row"
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Markets digesting big gains...
Markets are "calm"...after big gains on wed......
Market has the feel of stability....
Housing 40 years price decline did NOT put too much dent....
Jobless claims are also in "non recessionary mode"
Friday close will be more of an indication of how comfortable investors are with this market....
In my portfolio :
I added 18% more CSIQ @ open...my cost moved down to $27.80..ouch !!
I sold RIMM to book a gain of $7.15 per share..not bad for 1 day work.....need trades like this to build my portfolio & equity.....
I bought AAPL @ $134.88..but it went down to $132.50 after my purchase....
So my portfolio is :
AAPL,AGU,AKNS,CSIQ,LDK,UEX.TO & MA......
MA down $6.26 .....
AGU UP $ 3.32......
CSIQ UP 25 cents..
LDK UP 55 cents
AKNS down 8 cents
UEX UP 18 cents
AAPL down $3.95 UP 24 cents for me....
@ 11.28 AM the following are green :
RIMM,CMED,SOHU,BRCM,DELL,SNDK,SIRF,BX,ICE,YHOO,
POT ( good ER),TSO,CTRP,BIDU,NVDA,NYX,NMX,VLO,ABX,
ISRG,AMZN,DRYS,GOOG,FWLT,FMCN,STX,LRCX,GRMN.
Most techs are UP today from oversold condition.....
Good luck for rest of the day.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Market has the feel of stability....
Housing 40 years price decline did NOT put too much dent....
Jobless claims are also in "non recessionary mode"
Friday close will be more of an indication of how comfortable investors are with this market....
In my portfolio :
I added 18% more CSIQ @ open...my cost moved down to $27.80..ouch !!
I sold RIMM to book a gain of $7.15 per share..not bad for 1 day work.....need trades like this to build my portfolio & equity.....
I bought AAPL @ $134.88..but it went down to $132.50 after my purchase....
So my portfolio is :
AAPL,AGU,AKNS,CSIQ,LDK,UEX.TO & MA......
MA down $6.26 .....
AGU UP $ 3.32......
CSIQ UP 25 cents..
LDK UP 55 cents
AKNS down 8 cents
UEX UP 18 cents
AAPL down $3.95 UP 24 cents for me....
@ 11.28 AM the following are green :
RIMM,CMED,SOHU,BRCM,DELL,SNDK,SIRF,BX,ICE,YHOO,
POT ( good ER),TSO,CTRP,BIDU,NVDA,NYX,NMX,VLO,ABX,
ISRG,AMZN,DRYS,GOOG,FWLT,FMCN,STX,LRCX,GRMN.
Most techs are UP today from oversold condition.....
Good luck for rest of the day.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Markets found support & moved sharply UP $$$
Markets revisited lows today & dipping slight below.......
After making a solid retest of support...we saw a "text book DOUBLE BOTTOM"
We moved UP sharply on HUGE volume.......
All of these are technical definition of a market which washed out the most optimistic BULL...
Markets went LOWER than any predictions ...based on previous support.....
NONE of the "support held up in this frenzied selling"
Very few traders called this market "downdraft" with any accuracy......
It is always "looking @ the chart after the fact"..on a daily basis......
After 10% correction...I reverted to my FA conviction and waited with all my position for the "freefall to be over"...It always ends...but when & where Nobody can tell.......
I know..it has taken a huge financial & emotional toll on everyone......including me......
The only difference is that I believed in my FA 100%...so had very HIGH comfort level with all my position.......
So...what have we learned from January of 08 SWOON ?????
It all depends on the individuals.......
Some need to go through these "horrendous correction to LEARN...but others do NOT go to the drawing board to DO anything different ???
I sincerely hope...that you all will come out with some understanding of the mechanism of US markets...which is "hedge fund driven @ all times "whether it is going UP or DOWN......so it exaggerates both moves.......
In my portfolio :
AGU down $1.57..rating 100/85.. 1st target $59.10
AKNS Unchanged..not rated
CSIQ down $1.06..rating 100/100... 1st target $19.17
LDK UP $1.04...rating 100/65..1st target $40.63
MA UP $10.42..rating 50/30..1st target $197.92
RIMM UP $3.15 (for me)..rating 100/85..1st target $98.58
UEX.TO UP 5 cents..not rated www.stockcharts.com target $19.75
In other BARGAIN stocks :
F ..rating 60/30..1st target $6.64 ( reports thursday)
BX..rating 35/45..1st target $21.56....
Most financials including XLF were UP huge......
Most techs recovered from their LOWS..including AAPL,DELL,CSCO,MSFT (reports AH thursday).....
With today's HUGE UP move...it is NOT critical that we have another day of UP move.....
Conviction is one word..which you must develop based on your OWN FA/TA plus tape....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
After making a solid retest of support...we saw a "text book DOUBLE BOTTOM"
We moved UP sharply on HUGE volume.......
All of these are technical definition of a market which washed out the most optimistic BULL...
Markets went LOWER than any predictions ...based on previous support.....
NONE of the "support held up in this frenzied selling"
Very few traders called this market "downdraft" with any accuracy......
It is always "looking @ the chart after the fact"..on a daily basis......
After 10% correction...I reverted to my FA conviction and waited with all my position for the "freefall to be over"...It always ends...but when & where Nobody can tell.......
I know..it has taken a huge financial & emotional toll on everyone......including me......
The only difference is that I believed in my FA 100%...so had very HIGH comfort level with all my position.......
So...what have we learned from January of 08 SWOON ?????
It all depends on the individuals.......
Some need to go through these "horrendous correction to LEARN...but others do NOT go to the drawing board to DO anything different ???
I sincerely hope...that you all will come out with some understanding of the mechanism of US markets...which is "hedge fund driven @ all times "whether it is going UP or DOWN......so it exaggerates both moves.......
In my portfolio :
AGU down $1.57..rating 100/85.. 1st target $59.10
AKNS Unchanged..not rated
CSIQ down $1.06..rating 100/100... 1st target $19.17
LDK UP $1.04...rating 100/65..1st target $40.63
MA UP $10.42..rating 50/30..1st target $197.92
RIMM UP $3.15 (for me)..rating 100/85..1st target $98.58
UEX.TO UP 5 cents..not rated www.stockcharts.com target $19.75
In other BARGAIN stocks :
F ..rating 60/30..1st target $6.64 ( reports thursday)
BX..rating 35/45..1st target $21.56....
Most financials including XLF were UP huge......
Most techs recovered from their LOWS..including AAPL,DELL,CSCO,MSFT (reports AH thursday).....
With today's HUGE UP move...it is NOT critical that we have another day of UP move.....
Conviction is one word..which you must develop based on your OWN FA/TA plus tape....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Markets trying to find a bottom !!!!
Markets are in the process of finding a bottom......
Today's LOWER open & dow going down to 240......and snapping back to HIGHER LOWS ..is pretty SIGNIFICANT.....
If we close higher than yesterday's LOWS.....then there is some CONVICTION to the bottom...
More important if we close HIGHER than yesterday's CLOSE...then it will CONFIRM the bottom.....I hope !!!
In my portfolio :
I felt comfortable enough with recent tape of RIMM & with today's selloff.... I bought RIM.TO in Toronto.....as I am LONG Canadian $ NOW as of yesterday...I bought RIMM in toronto in Canadian $..my cost CAD $86.97.....not @ low which is $84.50 so far......
So now my portfolio is :
AGU,AKNS,CSIQ,LDK,MA & RIMM.......
Only LDK is green...so far.....
@11.16 AM the following are green :
BX,WYNN,MSO,WYN,NVDA,AMD,EBAY,GRMN......
Good luck on rest of the day.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Today's LOWER open & dow going down to 240......and snapping back to HIGHER LOWS ..is pretty SIGNIFICANT.....
If we close higher than yesterday's LOWS.....then there is some CONVICTION to the bottom...
More important if we close HIGHER than yesterday's CLOSE...then it will CONFIRM the bottom.....I hope !!!
In my portfolio :
I felt comfortable enough with recent tape of RIMM & with today's selloff.... I bought RIM.TO in Toronto.....as I am LONG Canadian $ NOW as of yesterday...I bought RIMM in toronto in Canadian $..my cost CAD $86.97.....not @ low which is $84.50 so far......
So now my portfolio is :
AGU,AKNS,CSIQ,LDK,MA & RIMM.......
Only LDK is green...so far.....
@11.16 AM the following are green :
BX,WYNN,MSO,WYN,NVDA,AMD,EBAY,GRMN......
Good luck on rest of the day.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Markets trying hard to get traction ....in a difficult environment ???
Markets fought its way back from deep loss.......
Markets are facing too many "determined shorts"
Some shorts have the "support of charts...which is awful under the circumstances"
This market has @ least one thing going for it now.....fed aggressive support.....
Fed support "is a good thing"
So...how one plays this market......
Again ...we are back to "conviction"...
Most stocks are down big.......So...if you are trading out.....then you are locking loss after loss..not a good way to start 2008.........
It is important to look beyond 2008......to 2009.......sounds too far...not really if you can calculate/predict where your stocks MAY be trading in 2009........
I do NOT know of any other way to go through this difficult market...which WILL remain challenging in spite of fed aggressive support.....
Market NEEDS time to work through "technical damage"....it may take several grinding months to find a strong base......
The earliest which I can see is April that we may have finished "support building process"..I have seen "too many broken markets that follow a similar pattern"
Techs will under perform for Q1 & Q2...a seasonally slow period plus spending challenges by consumers & business.......imho
AAPL ER was a major disappointment....they have "never guided this low from consensus"
Markets will go through AAPL news like any other negative news.......
Different markets needs different strategy...currently long term bets are more desireable.....
If you must trade...buy on down day's and sell quickly when profit is there.....otherwise you will face another down day & profit will disappear....
In my portfolio :
AGU UP 10 cents..rating 100/75...1st target $63.43........
AKNS down 35 cents.....not rated by www.stockconsultant.com
CSIQ UP 79 cents..rating 65/60 breakout predicted @ $19.17..1st target $22.19
LDK down $1.53... rating 100/70...1st target $42.08......
MA UP $7.55...rating 80/50..1st target $197.97.....
UEX.TO UP 12 cents....no rating.....
Overall I had a "green day"..after many day's.......
Today I covered my Canadian $ short...for a 11.95% forex gain Net Net....shorted @ $1.0980 covered today @ 97.85......commission included on both sides....This trade gave me 125% gain in total equity from Nov 7th to Jan 22....in 75 calender days......one of my proud achievement....
Why did I cover...because as of today...there is a 50 basis higher differential in Canadian Interest rate vs US..as Canada lowered by 25 basis vs 75 basis by US Fed......expecting Canadian currency to gain against US$ from these lower level...some forex experts are predicting that CAD will gain 400 points to 1.02......
In other stocks :
CMED rating 80/90..1st target $48.16
SOHU rating 85/95..1st target $44.65
AAPL rating 85/85..1st target 136.06 (downside after ER)
RIMM rating 100/80..1st target $100.10
Please keep monitoring FA & news on all your stocks.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Markets are facing too many "determined shorts"
Some shorts have the "support of charts...which is awful under the circumstances"
This market has @ least one thing going for it now.....fed aggressive support.....
Fed support "is a good thing"
So...how one plays this market......
Again ...we are back to "conviction"...
Most stocks are down big.......So...if you are trading out.....then you are locking loss after loss..not a good way to start 2008.........
It is important to look beyond 2008......to 2009.......sounds too far...not really if you can calculate/predict where your stocks MAY be trading in 2009........
I do NOT know of any other way to go through this difficult market...which WILL remain challenging in spite of fed aggressive support.....
Market NEEDS time to work through "technical damage"....it may take several grinding months to find a strong base......
The earliest which I can see is April that we may have finished "support building process"..I have seen "too many broken markets that follow a similar pattern"
Techs will under perform for Q1 & Q2...a seasonally slow period plus spending challenges by consumers & business.......imho
AAPL ER was a major disappointment....they have "never guided this low from consensus"
Markets will go through AAPL news like any other negative news.......
Different markets needs different strategy...currently long term bets are more desireable.....
If you must trade...buy on down day's and sell quickly when profit is there.....otherwise you will face another down day & profit will disappear....
In my portfolio :
AGU UP 10 cents..rating 100/75...1st target $63.43........
AKNS down 35 cents.....not rated by www.stockconsultant.com
CSIQ UP 79 cents..rating 65/60 breakout predicted @ $19.17..1st target $22.19
LDK down $1.53... rating 100/70...1st target $42.08......
MA UP $7.55...rating 80/50..1st target $197.97.....
UEX.TO UP 12 cents....no rating.....
Overall I had a "green day"..after many day's.......
Today I covered my Canadian $ short...for a 11.95% forex gain Net Net....shorted @ $1.0980 covered today @ 97.85......commission included on both sides....This trade gave me 125% gain in total equity from Nov 7th to Jan 22....in 75 calender days......one of my proud achievement....
Why did I cover...because as of today...there is a 50 basis higher differential in Canadian Interest rate vs US..as Canada lowered by 25 basis vs 75 basis by US Fed......expecting Canadian currency to gain against US$ from these lower level...some forex experts are predicting that CAD will gain 400 points to 1.02......
In other stocks :
CMED rating 80/90..1st target $48.16
SOHU rating 85/95..1st target $44.65
AAPL rating 85/85..1st target 136.06 (downside after ER)
RIMM rating 100/80..1st target $100.10
Please keep monitoring FA & news on all your stocks.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Markets fighting negativity "big time"....
Markets were pinned down @ open by shorts......to find a "quick exit by shorts"
Fed aggressive rate cut were "manipulated down 500 @ open by hedgies & their buddies"
Who say's...That markets "cannot be pinned down to down 500 level"
So let us get sequence right :
Pre-market futures down 500 on dow.....
Fed cuts by 75 basis.......@ 8.40 AM.....
Dow down 500 @ open......
100 minutes later Dow down 45 points.....on same news...?????
I highlighted the above to illustrate that it is important to have confidence & CONVICTION about your stocks......as rest is all MAJOR MYSTERY ...to put it mildly.....
As I highlighted after fed CUT...that it WILL put a FLOOR to this market......and it IS doing just that......
Markets will go through back & forth to solidify "the-bottom"
Now you will all HEAR.....positive things about fed move & market trends........
Because the POWER to be are all Bullish NOW...and they KNOW how to USE CNBC.....
My portfolio remained the same :
MA,AKNS,CSIQ,LDK,AGU & UEX.TO......
MA & UEX.TO are staying "green"....
While AGU,LDK,CSIQ & AKNS are "red "....
@ 11.26 AM the following on my watch list is green :
SIRF,BX,IGT,MSO,NYX,AUY,ABX,AKAM,JASO.
VIX did hit 36 area today......a "turnaround FEAR reading"
I hope that you all have become a better investor/trader as doing your OWN due diligence makes a "big difference"........
AAPL reports AH...I expect it to be a "beat & guidance in-line"...I hope !!!
Good ER from AAPL will give a big boost to the markets for wed.......
As long as we close above open LOWS...markets will be FINE !!!!
Good luck for close......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Fed aggressive rate cut were "manipulated down 500 @ open by hedgies & their buddies"
Who say's...That markets "cannot be pinned down to down 500 level"
So let us get sequence right :
Pre-market futures down 500 on dow.....
Fed cuts by 75 basis.......@ 8.40 AM.....
Dow down 500 @ open......
100 minutes later Dow down 45 points.....on same news...?????
I highlighted the above to illustrate that it is important to have confidence & CONVICTION about your stocks......as rest is all MAJOR MYSTERY ...to put it mildly.....
As I highlighted after fed CUT...that it WILL put a FLOOR to this market......and it IS doing just that......
Markets will go through back & forth to solidify "the-bottom"
Now you will all HEAR.....positive things about fed move & market trends........
Because the POWER to be are all Bullish NOW...and they KNOW how to USE CNBC.....
My portfolio remained the same :
MA,AKNS,CSIQ,LDK,AGU & UEX.TO......
MA & UEX.TO are staying "green"....
While AGU,LDK,CSIQ & AKNS are "red "....
@ 11.26 AM the following on my watch list is green :
SIRF,BX,IGT,MSO,NYX,AUY,ABX,AKAM,JASO.
VIX did hit 36 area today......a "turnaround FEAR reading"
I hope that you all have become a better investor/trader as doing your OWN due diligence makes a "big difference"........
AAPL reports AH...I expect it to be a "beat & guidance in-line"...I hope !!!
Good ER from AAPL will give a big boost to the markets for wed.......
As long as we close above open LOWS...markets will be FINE !!!!
Good luck for close......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Fed came to resue the markets by cutting .75% both rates
Fed took a decisive ACTION by cutting the fed funds rate & discount rates by .75%...
This ACTION will put a floor to the markets downward spiral.......
Obviously the BEARS/SHORTS & hedge funds are going to bad mouth this action......by complaining about TIMING & should have waited by mid-day......or TOO LATE ????
I am sure.....all the complaining is based on their game plan of shorting this market till STONE AGE.......
I am extremely delighted that FED took a DECISIVE action...which will BUILD investor & consumer confidence.....in a BIG way.......
Stocks WILL improve from here.... once MM allows the shorts to COVER with profit.....remember they are together in this game of shorting.....so got to help each other out.......
It is NOT an INSTANT solution to all the problems...but it is a first SALVO..to turn the tide of NEGATIVITY.....
Saleem
This ACTION will put a floor to the markets downward spiral.......
Obviously the BEARS/SHORTS & hedge funds are going to bad mouth this action......by complaining about TIMING & should have waited by mid-day......or TOO LATE ????
I am sure.....all the complaining is based on their game plan of shorting this market till STONE AGE.......
I am extremely delighted that FED took a DECISIVE action...which will BUILD investor & consumer confidence.....in a BIG way.......
Stocks WILL improve from here.... once MM allows the shorts to COVER with profit.....remember they are together in this game of shorting.....so got to help each other out.......
It is NOT an INSTANT solution to all the problems...but it is a first SALVO..to turn the tide of NEGATIVITY.....
Saleem
Monday, January 21, 2008
Toronto TANKS 605 points <4.75%>......
Toronto TSX Canada's benchmark index PLUNGED 605 points.....worst point loss in history....NOT % loss......
RIMM down $6.70 on 879,919 volume...average daily volume is 2,400,000......
POT down $5.90 on 868,164 volume..average daily volume is 1,700,000...
AGU( which I own) down $2.30 on 875,384...average daily volume is 1,600,000.....
My today's purchase UEX.TO down 85 cents to $4.93 my cost $4.88 on 1,075,504..average daily volume 606,000.......
Why am I highlighting VOLUME......because it was way LOWER than average on RIMM,POT,AGU...
RIMM traded ONLY 37% of daily average volume...
AGU traded 55% of daily average volume ...
POT traded 48.9% daily average volume...
A Technical analyst of National Bank in Canada who was the most famous BEAR has turned BULL today...FWIW !!!!
Find your OWN comfort level always with markets & stocks....
I have gone through many BEAR markets personally .....
First one was from Jan 1973...to Aug 1977....a span of 4 years & 8 months....a 23.4% drop in 56 months.......
1987 crash was a stunning 36%+ drop.......
Stock markets does these things on a recurring basis.......
It is up to YOU...to understand .....what markets are all about.....
It is NEVER straight UP forever.......
We had 3 corrections of 7% variety in the last 12 months.......
The current "downtrend is NOT over & IS NOT factored as part of the above"
To STAY in the markets....you NEED an "understanding of how much LOWER markets CAN go"
Markets will NOT change its course...because "you are UPSET"......
Markets WILL DO...whatever it WANTS to do for a very good REASON......like downtrend in US economy...which MAY affect world economy....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
RIMM down $6.70 on 879,919 volume...average daily volume is 2,400,000......
POT down $5.90 on 868,164 volume..average daily volume is 1,700,000...
AGU( which I own) down $2.30 on 875,384...average daily volume is 1,600,000.....
My today's purchase UEX.TO down 85 cents to $4.93 my cost $4.88 on 1,075,504..average daily volume 606,000.......
Why am I highlighting VOLUME......because it was way LOWER than average on RIMM,POT,AGU...
RIMM traded ONLY 37% of daily average volume...
AGU traded 55% of daily average volume ...
POT traded 48.9% daily average volume...
A Technical analyst of National Bank in Canada who was the most famous BEAR has turned BULL today...FWIW !!!!
Find your OWN comfort level always with markets & stocks....
I have gone through many BEAR markets personally .....
First one was from Jan 1973...to Aug 1977....a span of 4 years & 8 months....a 23.4% drop in 56 months.......
1987 crash was a stunning 36%+ drop.......
Stock markets does these things on a recurring basis.......
It is up to YOU...to understand .....what markets are all about.....
It is NEVER straight UP forever.......
We had 3 corrections of 7% variety in the last 12 months.......
The current "downtrend is NOT over & IS NOT factored as part of the above"
To STAY in the markets....you NEED an "understanding of how much LOWER markets CAN go"
Markets will NOT change its course...because "you are UPSET"......
Markets WILL DO...whatever it WANTS to do for a very good REASON......like downtrend in US economy...which MAY affect world economy....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
Golman Sachs concept of ONE world market IS working on the DOWNSIDE !!!
GS has created "one monster world market"
So...US markets are closed today.......
Does it matter to GS agenda.......of shorting worldwide.....
NO...No...No....
They are selling S&P500,Dow 30 & Nasdaq ......in FUTURES market....
Futures market are OPEN worldwide.......
I am SURE Treasury Secretary Paulson is very happy with "wink wink nudge nudge GS performance of Shorting"
I am sure Paulson "blind TRUST in GS is working like a charm"
I will be very interested to see..."when US govt will stand UP to GS agenda"
Tuesday will bring "DWARF BB into a tag team fight with GOLIATH GS"
Odds are 100 to 1.........Not a very good handicap......
Generally Kentucky Derby odds seldom go above 70 to 1 on the worst horse....which has 4 legs....BB has only 2 legs which is FROZEN..........
Saleem
So...US markets are closed today.......
Does it matter to GS agenda.......of shorting worldwide.....
NO...No...No....
They are selling S&P500,Dow 30 & Nasdaq ......in FUTURES market....
Futures market are OPEN worldwide.......
I am SURE Treasury Secretary Paulson is very happy with "wink wink nudge nudge GS performance of Shorting"
I am sure Paulson "blind TRUST in GS is working like a charm"
I will be very interested to see..."when US govt will stand UP to GS agenda"
Tuesday will bring "DWARF BB into a tag team fight with GOLIATH GS"
Odds are 100 to 1.........Not a very good handicap......
Generally Kentucky Derby odds seldom go above 70 to 1 on the worst horse....which has 4 legs....BB has only 2 legs which is FROZEN..........
Saleem
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Markets are dying..but some stocks are looking GOOD !!!
Markets go UP & markets go DOWN......
Down is the case right now......
So...what do you do......
Do some homework.....
Why ????
Because ...whenever your comfort level comes back...you will NOT be shooting in darkness....
Knowledge about stocks Fundamental (70%) & technical (30%)health ...gives you the " CONFIDENCE which is absolutely CRITICAL until august 0f 08"
You can always SPOT a growing company by analyzing Sales Growth & EPS Growth.....How can you tell if it IS the-fastest growing company on the face of wall street......????
Check the Year Over Year % growth rate for both Sales & EPS.......
This information is NOT hidden somewhere.........
All the FA is available from Yahoo Finance & must be cross-checked with MSN Moneycentral for ACCURACY ????
Yes....Yahoo sometimes gives "goofy numbers"..like sales & EPS in Chinese Yuan.....
Once you have identified the YOY growth rate.......
Then a final check in FA is PE ratio...sometimes it is a tell tale of things to come...MAY predict UPSWING or DOWNTREND ...depending on the DIRECTION of the markets.....
Then ...you can start checking TA which is the other 30% of research......
What is TA analysis......???
Is the stock trading above 50 or 200 DMA........????
What is the RSI range for the last 90 days...& where it is NOW in that range....
There are many other TA indicators which traders use.....like BB,Stochastics,5,10,20 DMA.....
But I leave those out...because they confuse the indicators.......and you end up ignoring some and using others for decision making.......
I know this is TOO much analysis......for some of you......
So you have a choice of NOT doing it & keep looking for trading IDEAS from IBD,IH,Dan Zanger or much used Message Boards.......
Trading results MAY be based on LUCK but is always BETTER if you are doing your own HOMEWORK.....
Homework is also CRITICAL in giving you CONFIDENCE & CONVICTION......which is NEEDED in this CRAZY markets we are IN NOW......
I have believed for a while now that Solar & Agriculture is the "hottest growth sector"...these are NOT CONCEPT with little sales & negative EPS........
Solar & Ag are having worldwide demand EXPLODING.....
They have Growing Sales & EPS.........
Ok..Ok...I know you want "the MEAT of my thesis"..........$$$$$$$
Here is the relative PE of Solar & Ag sectors for 2008..as of friday close !!!
Solar sector....
FSLR....87.94
SPWR...36.46
STP.....27.92
JASO...27.20
LDK.....20.49
CSIQ...12.45
SOLF...31.15
AKNS...<29>
Ag Sector....
POT...20.92
BG.....17.98
MOS..21.34
AGU..13.48
SEED..15.7
Some other stocks which are doing well have PE of :
MA.....25.27
AAPL...31.39
RIMM..26.36
CMED..31.35
Ok...final test NOW.......
If you have to own five stocks NOW...which ones will give you the CONFIDENCE & CONVICTION..to hang ON till end of 2009......
Not a bad thought process for a sunday morning.......
It is all about KNOWING what you have bought & WHY !!!!!
Yes....... I do own the following stocks :
MA,AGU,LDK,CSIQ & AKNS.....
BLOG does NOT give BUY or SELL.
Enjoy your long weekend with family & friends.......
Saleem
Down is the case right now......
So...what do you do......
Do some homework.....
Why ????
Because ...whenever your comfort level comes back...you will NOT be shooting in darkness....
Knowledge about stocks Fundamental (70%) & technical (30%)health ...gives you the " CONFIDENCE which is absolutely CRITICAL until august 0f 08"
You can always SPOT a growing company by analyzing Sales Growth & EPS Growth.....How can you tell if it IS the-fastest growing company on the face of wall street......????
Check the Year Over Year % growth rate for both Sales & EPS.......
This information is NOT hidden somewhere.........
All the FA is available from Yahoo Finance & must be cross-checked with MSN Moneycentral for ACCURACY ????
Yes....Yahoo sometimes gives "goofy numbers"..like sales & EPS in Chinese Yuan.....
Once you have identified the YOY growth rate.......
Then a final check in FA is PE ratio...sometimes it is a tell tale of things to come...MAY predict UPSWING or DOWNTREND ...depending on the DIRECTION of the markets.....
Then ...you can start checking TA which is the other 30% of research......
What is TA analysis......???
Is the stock trading above 50 or 200 DMA........????
What is the RSI range for the last 90 days...& where it is NOW in that range....
There are many other TA indicators which traders use.....like BB,Stochastics,5,10,20 DMA.....
But I leave those out...because they confuse the indicators.......and you end up ignoring some and using others for decision making.......
I know this is TOO much analysis......for some of you......
So you have a choice of NOT doing it & keep looking for trading IDEAS from IBD,IH,Dan Zanger or much used Message Boards.......
Trading results MAY be based on LUCK but is always BETTER if you are doing your own HOMEWORK.....
Homework is also CRITICAL in giving you CONFIDENCE & CONVICTION......which is NEEDED in this CRAZY markets we are IN NOW......
I have believed for a while now that Solar & Agriculture is the "hottest growth sector"...these are NOT CONCEPT with little sales & negative EPS........
Solar & Ag are having worldwide demand EXPLODING.....
They have Growing Sales & EPS.........
Ok..Ok...I know you want "the MEAT of my thesis"..........$$$$$$$
Here is the relative PE of Solar & Ag sectors for 2008..as of friday close !!!
Solar sector....
FSLR....87.94
SPWR...36.46
STP.....27.92
JASO...27.20
LDK.....20.49
CSIQ...12.45
SOLF...31.15
AKNS...<29>
Ag Sector....
POT...20.92
BG.....17.98
MOS..21.34
AGU..13.48
SEED..15.7
Some other stocks which are doing well have PE of :
MA.....25.27
AAPL...31.39
RIMM..26.36
CMED..31.35
Ok...final test NOW.......
If you have to own five stocks NOW...which ones will give you the CONFIDENCE & CONVICTION..to hang ON till end of 2009......
Not a bad thought process for a sunday morning.......
It is all about KNOWING what you have bought & WHY !!!!!
Yes....... I do own the following stocks :
MA,AGU,LDK,CSIQ & AKNS.....
BLOG does NOT give BUY or SELL.
Enjoy your long weekend with family & friends.......
Saleem
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