Monday, February 25, 2008

Markets closed near high !!!

Markets raced UP to close near high of the day......

Once more Bond insurer rating affirmation by S&P was the catalyst......

Short covering are gradually kicking in......

Markets are nowhere near being out of the woods yet........????

Markets will remain "economic news driven"......

So watch your exposure.......

Markets are NEAR the high range of trading.......so a pullback CAN come from nowhere !!!

It IS a stock pickers market.......

Ag stocks were @ "new all time HIGH"

Listened to LDK CC.......highlights are :

They are managing their cost......

They are managing their margin....

Silicon cost IS pressuring their margin and will remain so until 2nd half of 08.....

Factory IS on schedule.....

LDK stock price will be dictated by analyst take on LDK Q 4 result & their guidance for 2008 !!!

If solar sector moves UP then LDK will move UP......

LDK will be among the better performer going forward....

In my portfolio :

AGU rating 15/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $74.58 with a target of $81.58

CSIQ rating 60/95 rated for a "breakout"@ $19.92 for a target of $23.78

CMED rating 55/30 target $58.06

GS rating 95/80 target $190.48

LDK rating 65/90 target $37.90

SOLF rating 90/95 target $18.17

In other stock :

BUCY rating 5/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $105.48 for a target of $115.10

Please continue your OWN due diligence as strong sectors & strong stocks are working.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

29 comments:

Doug said...

Thanks for your thoughts Saleem. I hope LDK is up in pre-market. Have a good night.

Stocks100 said...

Hi Doug,

Solar sector is in a funk.....

Whole sector is trading near RECENT low.

Saleem

Doug said...

Yes, it is pretty silly if you ask me. The world needs energy. Europe is teaching the world how to use it. China is teaching how to profit from it and use it. Wall street turns its nose up at, what the world needs. I will just continue to be patient. I would always enjoy a post from you, when you decide to take some kind of action regarding LDK? I hope. LOL. I really would like to piggy back your moves with LDK if thats ok Saleem, so a heads up when you sell, add... would be great. Until then, it was a great conference call. You could hear the analysts that have been problem in the past, GS and PJ. just trying to make shaky ground with accounting...I am confident that the company is on track to be a real strong player going forward. We will be rewarded.

Stocks100 said...

Hi Doug,

Yes...I will keep you posted in real time.....

LDK has seen the "downtrend already"...

So...It IS a safe bet to hold..as it gradually works its way UP with FSLR,SPWR.......

Solar sector will come to LIFE...whenever analyst give OK....

Needham will UPGRADE !!!!

Saleem

standardshigh said...

Saleem,

Geese, GS at it again. Got a rally going and GS starts media campaign to knock it down. "More write downs coming" "Short Freddie" GS proclaims. Of course the story is repeated on Network Tv and Forbes. UnAmerican if you ask me. GS is a fear monger.

Doug said...

Saleem,
did you read the Reuters report that discussed put/call ratios for March? They said that the call options are twice that of puts. Pretty bullish indicator! They said that the options crowd seems to have quite a different take than the analysts, who 4 out of 6 have a hold or worse on LDK??? Sounds kinda fishy to me. LOL. But as you said, analysts will be upgrading from here, so this will settle out, and settle out to the upside for us! Best wishes...

madmax said...

SALEEM:--LDK
Yea I know you may hae seen this, I was so happy that I had to post it for any others that missed it.

OS ANGELES, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Chinese solar wafer maker LDK Solar Co Ltd (LDK.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Monday quarterly net earnings rose 18.3 percent, topping Wall Street estimates and sending the company's shares up nearly 4 percent in extended trading.

LDK, whose wafers are used to build solar panels, has enjoyed rapid growth in the last year due to skyrocketing demand for renewable energy sources driven by rising fossil fuel prices and concerns about global warming. LDK's sales more than tripled during the fourth quarter and the company said it signed 9 long-term wafer supply agreements during the period.

The company also raised its first-quarter sales and earnings forecasts slightly.

Fourth-quarter net income rose to $49.2 million, or 44 cents per American Depositary Share, from $41.6 million, or 37 cents per ADS, a year ago.

Wall Street analysts, on average, had been expecting earnings of 41 cents per ADS, according to Reuters Estimates.

Net sales were $192.8 million compared with $61.9 million a year ago. Analysts had been expecting revenue of $187.14 million, according to Reuters Estimates.

Gross profit margin for the quarter was 30.1 percent compared with 42.9 percent in the previous year. LDK's costs have soared in the last year due to higher prices on polysilicon, the key raw material in photovoltaic cells that turn sunlight into electricity.

To drive down its costs, LDK plans to build two polysilicon plants in China's Jiangxi province. Continued...
Here is web site:
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCNTN2526951920080225?rpc=44
Madmax

standardshigh said...

Saleem,

IBD says market in a confirmed rally.
Have a great week.

Standards

Stocks100 said...

Hi Standards,

Thanks for the IBD update.

I do follow technicians closely...so it IS nice to see that IBD has confirmed a"rally mode"

This will get us past the resistance in the markets....

Saleem

madmax said...

SALEEM
Good Morning to you my friend!!!!!!!!

Looks like a green day to me-great
hurray...
If we close green, 3 in a row is a GREAT indicator of market turn around

WHy is LDK selling off today?

Peace

Madmax

Stocks100 said...

Hi Madmax,

First of all...it IS RED in futures.

LDK has a very good chance of making a FIRM bottom today.

LDK support will be solidified today by last batch of sellers.

PJ maintained sell on "clarity issues"

Needham as expected by me UPGRADED....

LDK is fine going forward..imho

Saleem

Troy House said...

LDK gets no respect, the bashing by the analysts continue....

Stocks100 said...

Hi Troy,

LDK is the best bet in the market right now......

All the ER buyers will be OUT today on PJ note....thus a "clear sailing by close"

Saleem

madmax said...

SALEEM

So sorry, about green--- when I was looking at the market it showed Green!
Now it is indeed red
SO I am bad--sorry. I did not neand to offend you ever.

I do not even post false hoods!

I am just tired of the MM taking LDK out to the wood shed

Peace to all
Madmax

Stocks100 said...

Hi Madmax,

Dont be hard on yourself.

You are a very useful contributor to my BLOG.

When I post anything...it IS also timely.....

So you posted after seeing green...when I posted it was RED...

Nobody IS bad here @ all.

Keep smiling !!!

Saleem

madmax said...

Hello SALEEM

thank you so much for yor kind and help full comments

I am loving the action in CMED and AGU.
As you know IBD gives CMED a B+ in accumulation, the big boys are buying CMED--which is 3 weeks as gone form B- to B to today B+..

thanks again

Madmax

Doug said...

Gmorning Saleem and fellow bloggers,
Well I lucked out this morning as BABY missed by a penny but the stock shot up for a moment anyway and I got to sell for a nice profit. Just bought TKC, small position. I am LDK, CCC,CSX, ADM and TKC. Hope for a green close!!!

Stocks100 said...

Hi Doug,

You are lucky ....because you are keeping an eye on news & tape.

Turkish Cell phone is expanding all over Eastern Europe...good choice.

Yes....green close is a real probability !!!!

Saleem

Doug said...

Saleem,
Thanks for the input on TKC pick. It is appreciated. I cant make up my mind if I should sell CSX and ADM as I am up over $500 between the two??? They are both expected to go much higher. Hard to pull the trigger, just to have to find another buy. What do you think Saleem, Sell or hold? IH target for CSX is $58.95 and it is at $52.50. Target for ADM is $53.95 and it is at $44.50. I feel like I should hold but there is profit to take, SO????? LOL... I just dont want to skip around too much. Thanks for any thoughts.

Stocks100 said...

Hi Doug,

Locking profit is NEVER a bad idea...this way you CAN move on to your next dream purchase.

See...we are all different type of trader.....you LIKE to pull trigger.....so DO IT !!!

Saleem

Bruce said...

"Good" huh? morning,

Well it's official I am a short-term pessimist.... I just do not like the tape, the macro-and micro-economic news, and my local business climate. It's just too negative right now and I personally don't see a turn around until (maybe) 2Q 2009, when the new President is in power and we see his/hers plans and whether they are doable. (I personally am not thrilled with any of the choices).

This market is just too volatile for my mental well-being. I am not sleeping well and not acting how I should to my family (very grouchy).

Unfortuntely from a financial perspective, I am not Warren Buffett, who can risk a few billion... I cannot allow any further diminishment of my remaining capital.... Thus,
this morning I bit the bullet and acted, deciding that I need time to regroup,think, study and learn. If I lose some potential "good" trades in the short-term so be it.

Pre-market, I placed stop-losses on all my postions. As of 10:28am EST, I have now been stopped out of all except one. If the remaining position makes through the day, I will raise/trail the stop up with increase in stock value.

Saleem, I enjoy your blog and thank you for all the time spent with me.

Good luck to all others on the Board.

Doug said...

Thanks Saleem. Im going to have to wait a little while to see as the stocks backed off a little. I think I will take profits if I can time FCX or DSX for a buy as those are the ones Im watching. CMED and AGU looking good today my friend. Glad for you.

madmax said...

DOUG

I am so glad that you are making profits, espicially in this market

I say book profit and or sell 1/2 half of the two winners and look for your next purchase.

In any event I like to book a profit when I can
Congradulations
Madmax

Doug said...

Thanks MAD!!! Good luck today with yours as well.

Doug said...

Saleem,
When you get a moment I'd like to get your take on this scenario: BABY missed by a penny but they kept their full year guidance. IH is in at $19.15 with a target of $22.95. I am wondering if this is just a typical overreaction by skiddish investors and could it be a good entry to buy again down here in the mid $18's ??? I know you don't follow BABY but just a general answer from your experienced eye would be great! Thanks. Also if you are busy timing CMED or AGU for a sale or something, dont worry about me and keep your eye on the ball my Man. LOL. Best wishes...

Unknown said...

Needham came in and said LDK Solar is undervalued and it reiterates its Strong Buy on LDK.

Stocks100 said...

Hi Doug,

BABY needs to be left alone...imho

Never fall in love with any stock.

Fundamentals are important...a miss is a miss.....

If you must buy ....then WAIT about 3 months for next Q report...

Discipline IS very important....

There are @ least 40 stocks on IH list pick something else !!!

Saleem

madmax said...

SALEEM

LDK made the IBD lsiting for huge Volume sell off> YUK

Stocks RISINGFALLING on unusually high volume. Learn More about Stocks On The Move.

2/26/2008 Updating...
Stock
Symbol Company
Name Stock
Price Price
Chg. Vol
% Chg. Research Tools
FDP Fresh Del Monte Produce 33.95 +1.23 +669
CEL Cellcom Israel Ltd 32.68 +0.53 +306
AZO Autozone Inc 122.52 +5.15 +299
FCSX F C Stone Group Inc 48.24 +1.33 +212
DWSN Dawson Geophysical Co 64.42 +2.35 +200
HOS Hornbeck Offshore Svcs 47.50 +0.95 +168
PKX P O S C O 141.06 +1.96 +163
VIVO Meridian Bioscience Inc 34.86 +0.77 +154
CTRP Ctrip.Com Intl Ltd Adr 56.15 +0.68 +149
BKE Buckle Inc 44.35 +1.93 +148
MTL Mechel Oao Ads 125.50 +3.34 +130
LNN Lindsay Corporation 72.77 +2.71 +116
IIVI Ii-Vi Incorporated 32.42 +0.54 +114
HOLX Hologic Inc 61.75 +1.94 +94
CHDX Chindex International 39.30 +1.17 +92
BYI Bally Technologies Inc 42.56 +0.94 +89
CNQ Canadian Natural Res Ltd 72.58 +0.51 +76
PLXS Plexus Corp 23.67 +0.88 +70
MICC Millicom Intl Cellular 114.84 +1.51 +62
URBN Urban Outfitters Inc 30.11 +0.51 +62

Stock
Symbol Company
Name Stock
Price Price
Chg. Vol
% Chg. Research Tools
TSRA Tessera Technologies Inc 25.57 -11.14 +4,609
HWAY Healthways Inc 29.12 -16.23 +3,312
CRDN Ceradyne Inc 34.42 -12.73 +2,369
SSYS Stratasys Inc 17.03 -4.18 +1,741
BABY Natus Medical Inc 18.37 -0.81 +1,008
FWLT Foster Wheeler Ltd 73.35 -5.81 +949
GTXI G T X Inc 16.48 -1.11 +733
ESI I T T Educational Svcs 51.88 -2.14 +592
GOOG Google Inc 450.97 -35.47 +559
ICLR Icon Plc Ads 69.39 -1.27 +388
LDK L D K Solar Co Ltd 30.06 -2.40 +373
EOC Empresa Nac El Chile Ads 41.85 -0.55 +371
CIR Circor Intl Inc 47.00 -1.66 +329
MGLN Magellan Health Services 42.73 -1.31 +315
DRYS Dryships Inc 79.50 -5.28 +312
KWK Quicksilver Resources 34.86 -1.65 +303
GB Greatbatch Inc 20.80 -1.05 +294
ME Mariner Energy Inc 28.84 -0.76 +283
ZBRA Zebra Tech Corp Cl A 32.17 -0.90 +281
RJF Raymond James Financial 24.11 -0.87 +281


Legend:

Doug said...

Thanks Saleem,
Good advice and I will leave it alone.