Markets rolled over in the afternoon and closed near low.
Internals were extremely WEAK......
Markets are getting in the habbit of showing strength one day & weakness next day...typical of basing action......
Tremendous rotation is going on .....on a daily basis....sign of FEAR in the market.....
Not many group except hottest sector are able to have back to back gains.......
In my portfolio :
Did lot of trades today to adjust to new reality of "volatility on a daily basis"
Sold MA booked $1 per share gain.......
Sold AGU booked $1.20 per share gain....
Sold CMED booked $4.22 per share gain....
Bought GS @ $176.80
Rebought AGU @ $72.17
Rebought CMED @ $52.21
My current portfolio is :
AGU,CSIQ,CMED,GS,LDK & SOLF.....
My new strategy IS to sell any stock where I see profit & buy anything which has a chance of making money NEXT day......I hope !!!!
AGU rating 40/30 target $74.68
CSIQ rating 50/60 target $23.07
CMED rating 20/30 rated for a "breakout" with a target of $58.34
GS rating 100/90 target of $185.95
LDK rating 45/90 target $37.94
SOLF rating 65/90 target $19.11
In other stock :
JASO rating 65/85 target $19.54
Solar is being sold off relentlessly for a long time.....I personally believe that it IS deeply oversold and could rally without any news or catalyst.....on technical REBOUND......
It IS unusual to see this kind of degradation in PE in solar.....which is listed below after close today:
FSLR...85.32
SPWR..33.66
STP.....21.29
LDK.....17.68
CSIQ...13.90
SOLF..23.20
JASO..24.47
Why do I analyze PE after close today ??...to FACTUALLY see how my solar stocks stacks up against the entire universe of known solar company......so it IS easy to see where the strength or weakness IS in my solar stocks......
It IS very interesting to see how US based solar stocks are given HIGHER PE than Chinese solar ???
Please try to KNOW what you OWN on a daily basis as earning estimates are changing these days......PE is just one measure which I use for a quick comparison.....this gives me a snapshot and then I am READY to take any decision based on PE......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
19 comments:
Hi Saleem,
Solar may be tough for awhile. Oil showing some weakness along with CNBC trashing the solar stocks just before closing. Typical statements made of too high a PE and they should roll over. These so called analysts need to find new jobs.
Standards
Hi Standards,
Most of the guest on CNBC sometimes do NOT know what some companies do......
Karen Finerman loves to give opinion without knowing the PS or PE of any stock.....
She was also claiming most solar stocks are selling @ more than 20X PS.....
Maybe her math is bad also......
Here is Price to Sales of the solar stocks I own :
LDK 3.11 to Sales
SOLF 1.27 to Sales
CSIQ .78 to Sales
So...you can tell Karen Finerman the hedge fund GENIUS is wrong by 1000%.....????
CNBC has NO credibility....
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
What website are you using to view the PE's?
For example, SOLF has a TTM PE of 39.55 on Yahoo! Finance and a '08 forward PE of 1.64. You show 23.20.
Thanks!
Hi Ibd,
SOLF earnings & sales in yahoo finance are in Yuan.....
SOLF earning is 61 cents for 12/08 as given in MSN moneycentral under earning estimates..all figure are in US$.
Saleem
Saleem,
You know that I agree with you 100%. I am buying IH picks that are showing good TA trends but Im buying them while they are testing and below IH original entry points, at least as often as I can. Entry points seem to be the MOST IMPORTANT THING to me, once I have decided to enter a stock. This environment is killing me though, as far as timing and entries. I was doing a lot better a couple of weeks ago,when the "normal volatility" was happening. This base building process is torture. It is very difficult for me to get a decent entry point. So I just find myself having to wait a few days to get the trade off. A few weeks ago, I was buying on weakness and selling into strength like a yoyo. I mean it was easy. Now, this zany tape has got me all flustered in terms of picking good entries. The good news is that I am in stocks that I have conviction that they will surpass my entry points so I just sit and wait. Like fishing with many lines and waiting to reel one in as soon as I get a bite. LOL. Talk soon...
Hi Doug,
When market are this crazy....you develop a "new trading you"....
This market is a great teacher...it HONES our skill as a trader & investor.
This market IS helping many to do their homework carefully & forcing them to develop CONVICTION......or else they will be booking loss after loss...& lose all equity....
See...in the end whatever works for you that matters.....
Idea is to have profitable trades...sooner or later.....
If nothing else...I AM comfortable with my strategy.....what goes DOWN will come UP !!!!
Good luck on friday $$$$
Saleem
LDK UP 10 % PM
Saleem,
I am doing something and I wanted to get your feedback. If the market has a couple of green days in a row, I am buying one of the ETF's like SDS, TWM, when everything is looking good and moving up... in anticipation of profit taking coming soon. Then a good entry point can be put in, so if the market does seesaw, Im already in great position. Obviously, two green days in a row is not often but I usually would be selling some long positions, to take profits, and my cash reserve is built back up, but I wouldn't want to go long after two days up, so it just seems like a logical conclusion to put some money on the downside. What do you think?
Saleem,
Just heard great news on LDK new contract!!!!!!!!
Yeh Baby... Hope we get rewarded.
Hi Doug,
You should always play what gives you confidence.
Playing short after 1 green day is also working.....
I am quietly building position in stocks/sector which may NOT follow downtrend from hereon...that IS where my comfort level IS.
You have NAVIGATED well with ultra shorts......
It is OK to be WRONG..if it does NOT work anymore....hint hint...markets are setting up for a MAJOR UP move NOW...imho
Saleem
Saleem,
I must know your opinion. Is this LDK contract w/ Hyundai the real deal??? Is this the time to add? Thanks.
Hi Doug,
Yes....LDK contract is a real deal.
But stay diversified with your strategy....do NOT overweight in ONE stock too much....
FYI..I added 25% more CSIQ @ open ...which I think IS a better deal in short term......LDK is OK for now ..but will be great after 6 months.....
My 2 cents !!!!
Saleem
Thanks for quick reply Saleem. My cost is $45 for LDK so I just keep getting tempted to reduce my cost basis. I could get it to the $41 area if I bought more and it is seductive. But you are right not to put all eggs in one basket. I have lost most when I did that. It is frustrating though. Thanks again.
SALEEM and Doug
Doug Good DAY to both of you!!!!!!!!!!!
This is one tough market. I have tried to let the winners role, does not work, the profit disappears!
We are in a see saw market (channeling stocks) Smile......
I bought some more of GS today and sold 100 AGU for $750 smackers! Still have 200 shares left. I am trying to dollar average on all my buys. It is helping me a lot. But requires a lot of tape watching.. THe Action on AGU was awsome this morning as was GS action. Gotta be very nimble here. THis market likes nothing IMHO.
SALEEM thanks so much for your positive punch, do you really see the market going up soon, I hope so as I still got a lot of stocks in the red.
God bless you all, have a great trading day!!!!!!
Madmax
Saleem,
I thought that I would mention that I saw in pre market, on totalview, CCC had a buy @$18.40 and it was not form T (pre market) but it was intra market, making me think that it was pre arranged. That would mean that the stock should hit $18.40 at some point today. I know there are head fakes placed on totalview so I dont know for sure, but I thought I would mention it, in case anyone wanted to consider it a play.
Hi Madmax,
Yes...I do see market turning UP from here....
We are just finishing RETESTING the support in the markets....
Once we turn UP.....it will be UP for more than 2 days..imho
Please ensure your comfort level @ all times.....I go with my INTUITION 101......mixed with experience !!!
Saleem
Saleem,
I recently purchased two additional Chinese stocks; XIN in the real estate sector & CHNR as a resource play. Interested in your thoughts on these. Thanks.
Victor
Hi Victor,
CHNR looks very good technically...near 52 wk HIGH...
XIN looks like a value play in the mid trading range.
Saleem
HELLO VICTOR:
Look at this form IBD:
IMHO be Carefull here!
Earnings Per Share (EPS) Rating Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating Industry Group Relative Strength (Grp RS) Rating Sales + Profit Margins + ROE (SMR) Rating Accumulation/ Distribution (Acc/Dis) Rating
28
99
A+
A
B+
Important to know competition:
5 Companies in the Diversified Operations Group Stocks Above $10 - Sorted By Best Overall Rating
Berkshire Hathaway Cl B BRKB
Walter Industries Inc WLT
Berkshire Hathaway Cl A BRKA
S P X Corp SPW
Olin Corp OLN HERE is an articel from IBD:
Feb 08, 2008 (M2 EQUITYBITES via COMTEX) -- China Natural Resources Inc (CHNR), which is engaged in mining zinc, iron and other minerals for distribution in China, revealed yesterday (7 February 2008) that on 26 January 2008, had entered into an agreement, through two of its indirect wholly owned subsidiaries, with Jiangxi Province Coal Group Company to jointly establish Guizhou Puzheng Mining Co Ltd, as an equity joint venture company in Guizhou Province, China. The Company would own 64% of the Joint Venture Company and it will engage in the exploration and mining of coal and other mineral resources in Guizhou Province and other regions in China. The company's chairman and CEO, Li Feilie, mentioned that coal supplies about 70 percent of the country's energy needs and is the primary energy source for China's economy.
Madmax
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