When just about everybody was certain that markets will have a bad day...markets DID the opposite.......
CNBC ,Barrons & message boards are all highlighting "what IS wrong with this market"
And the sure way to make money according to many experts is to buy "ultra shorts"....
Whenever any "strategy is extremely popular...then it IS time to do the opposite".....
So....today markets made a decision for most "ultra short players ...who were getting very comfortable in their recliners.....by going UP in a hurry...when shorts were taking a nap"
Many experienced investors/traders will tell you that it is WISE to stay in the market...even when it IS looking dark.......
Because.......you never know ..when the markets are finished discounting all the obvious issues..
Most of the big moves are in the first few days of any turnaround....
So...if you miss those days...then it will take a long time with lot of luck to be ahead again......
In my portfolio :
AGU rating 35/30 target $76.14
CSIQ rating 40/50 target $24.78
CMED rating 35/30...rated for a "breakout" @ $53.42 for a target of $58.71
LDK rating 50/90 target $40.66
MA rating 55/45 target $233.53
SOLF rating 55/95 target $20.42
In other stock :
JASO rating 90/30 target $20.57
Today STP gave a "shocker to entire solar sector" by missing consensus sales & earnings for Q4 & guiding well below consensus on both Sales & EPS for Q1....analyst conclusion IS...that STP is NOT willing to pay higher spot prices for silicon & are NOT able to get their contracted supply of Silicon......thus a huge miss all around......
Analyst are also of the view that Silicon shortage will NOT go away until middle of 09......
I do NOT buy all of the above ?
In my opinion STP has been overly aggressive in locking PV contracts worldwide @ very thin margin...to gain market share......but with the spot price of Silicon going higher......they are seeing losing money on some contracts...thus NOT delivering ...which affects Sales & EPS as guided previously......
I am also of the view that other companies like LDK ,CSIQ & SOLF are much more in-tune with costing of raw material & are upfront with any changes in their supply issues......we shall see as LDK reports Monday AH.......
AH NVTL is the disaster of the day down 14% on lower guidance.....
Jobless claims are out @ 830 AM.......which will set the tone for markets....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
12 comments:
Hi Saleem,
Thanks for sharing your experience. I have stayed in the market, long, and have been making money. If I did not have you as a counselor, I would probably have parked my money on the sidelines and missed a lot of good trades. I am glad to know when to listen to more experienced voices than my own. You have really been nailing it. I am so glad to have you and your blog as a reference point. I wont tire of saying thanks.
Hi Doug,
Appreciated your comments.
BLOG has only one purpose...to give a view....which is NOT pursued by many.
I do NOT go with the popular headlines of the day......I DIG deep to come up with REASONING which may explain things little better.....
You are doing profitable trading to achieve your objective...even in this difficult market....
Saleem
Guys, check out SEED, had a explosive day today and will continue upwards, and they report on 27th...
As Saleem would say, do your own DD...
Hi Saleem,
Any thoughts on FWLT? I like the infrastructure plays quite a bit and seems FWLT is best positioned. Thanks Charlie
Hi Saleem,
Any thoughts on FWLT? I like the infrastructure plays quite a bit and seems FWLT is best positioned. Thanks Charlie
Hi Charlie,
I have NOT followed this group @ all.
Once the credit is easily flowing then this group will benefit big time.
It is OK to be early in FWLT.
Saleem
SALEEM:
Good Morning My Friend!!!!!!!!
A green day coming righ up!! Hurray
unl;ess the employment picture spoils it.
AGU is higher, as is AAPL, RIMM, LDK, SOLG, and GS
MA is down in pre market and thing going on their?
Madmax
Hi Madmax,
Yes...markets are in a follow thru mood.....
Claims number were down...so NO issue there.
MA showing initial weakness on their press about Hungary launching a formal probe of their fee structure.
MA has a good chance of going "green" very quickly.
Saleem
Saleem,
I am considering adding a little LDK while its down in the $31's. I was just wondering what you thought may happen around ER? I dont have experience with LDK as this is the first time Ive ever invested in it and was just wondering if you see a pattern to the stock, like a selloff after earnings or on good earnings, does it tend to be rewarded...? I truly am already overexposed but it seems like if there was ever a time to add, it may be now. I appreciate any insight you could provide. I will say that my gut says already overexposed, so do nothing...
Minaccess,
IH sold COIN at around 11:20 A.M. FYI. Here is the alert:
IH Alert - COIN $12.80 Volume:1M Pct Avg Vol:128% ( Play: Target hit=12.95 on buys at 10.38. Nice surge taking some of the 24.7% gain.
Hi Doug,
If you are overexposed then WHY...you want to add...
LDK ER will be in-line & guidance will be in-line also.....so arelief rally is a "possibility"
Stocks take off on BETTER than expected ER & BETTER than expected GUIDANCE.....
This market will reward "diversified in many sectors approach"
Never fall in love with stocks...human beings are a different story !!!!
Saleem
Thanks Saleem, You make great points. I am more stuck right now than in love. LOL. I will continue to hold with conviction. best wishes.
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