Markets are showing resiliency.......
830 AM economy read will set the tone again.....
Markets are getting in the habbit of ignoring weak numbers...thursday should be no different..I hope !!!
AH AAPL lit the fireworks by confirming their sale of 10milion iphones in 08.....UP$8+
AH SEED is getting killed on ER...Down $3++
In my portfolio :
CSIQ rating 100/90 target $23.59
CMED rating 35/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $57.31 for a target of $62.88...ER AH Th....
GS rating 40/45 target $190.48
LDK rating 50/70 rated for a "breakdown" @ $25.82 target $19.07 if NOT then 1st target UP is $32.52......
RIMM rating 20/30 target $118.17
In other stocks :
SNE rating 40/30 target $51.09
AGU rating 20/30 rated for a "breakout" @ $75.04 for a target of $82.31
Most technology stocks were strong including GOOG,BIDU,AAPL JNPR,FFIV,CSCO,BRCM to name a few.....
All solar stocks are showing "sustained weakness...some are hitting new LOWS"..Analyst have been relentless in their negative take on their prediction for HIGH & LOW polysilicon prices...so they are downgrading many solar stocks because their cost will be HIGHER due to high silicon prices used for PV cells...but Wafer makers like LDK & WFR are being sold off because Wafer prices will be coming down in 2009 ??? I thought we are in 2nd month of 2008 ???
I believe that hedge funds are behind this massive selloff in Solar stocks no matter what they produce wafers or PV cells.....just does NOT make sense.....no matter how good or bad the ER are...they are taken down as if they all have warned for next 2 years.....??? i thought I have seen it all...but the solar selloff is totally out of my league & understanding ????NO FA or TA IS working ???
This should reinforce my point about being in Many stocks instead of one concentrated position.....that IS the-reason I am NOT adding to my LDK position.....no matter how LOW it goes...will NOT sell any either.....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
19 comments:
Saleem,
Thanks for posting your take on Solar sector. I do hope that further selling lets up but thanks for saying "do not add" because we dont know how low it may go. Have a good night.
Hi Doug,
All LDK holders are hoping for the day when this negative tape reverses.
I am patiently waiting for that....REVERSAL will come with an equal force...because @ some stage serious buying will come from somewhere...I hope !!!
Or the selling has to dry UP sooner than later.....I will take whatever comes FIRST ..I hope !!!
Saleem
Saleem,
Thanks I will hold as well LDK and look for something that will go up soon, I don't need more lead balloons at the moment. Eventually LdK will rise.
Thanks
Diane
Hi Saleem,
Just got back from Richmond VA, No recession in sight. Spoke with fellow travelers heading in multiple directions. No one had seen any signs of recession. Hmmmmmmmmmm. Sorry about LDK and AG's. No rime or reason for it. FA + TA = future $$$$$.
Standards
Hi Diane,
This IS very similar to what we went through with CMED 2 years ago....
So... I will keep LDK and keep trading other good stocks which I have in my portfolio....
Diversification WORKS all the time..even when I was struggling with CMED.
Try to Cheer UP !!!
Saleem
Hi Standards,
Well there IS always one stock like LDK to keep US sharp & in PAIN....
Such is the story on wall street.
I am glad you do encounter optimism....Markets are looking beyond current malaise.
I did not own any Ag today !!!
One LDK is enough punishment...
Saleem
SALEEM;
Good Morning to you my friend!!!!!!!
I am hoping for a strong lean and green market....
My APPL is up and ruinning away hurray...
Lets hope for more GS take off, and that solar gains favor, Go LDK , Go CSIQ
Madmax
Saleem,
I have no agenda in this question, other than to try to understand better and I would like your opinion. I keep coming across information regarding the dollar tanking, if not crashing in the near future. What do you think? Is this what happens in a bear market, where bears try to scare the crap out of people or do you see weakness that could actually lead to a real catastrophe? I don't have many people to ask this question to, that I would value their opinion, you are one who I would. I would also like your opinion on the Amero? Please google it if you are not familiar with it. Thanks for any thoughts.
Hi Madmax,
Good morning
Yes AAPL is flying UP another $3 in pre-market.
LDK IS showing sign of LIFE in pre-market also.....
GS has broken the downtrend..it is NOT in anybodys radar YET.....
Saleem
DOUG
Good Morning to ya
I looked at AMERO--IMHO, that merger will never happen. Canada maybe. Mexico is still 3 world and really hurting on qualtity of life issues!
As for the dollar, I really would like to see our US Treasury start a policy of bolstering the currency.
But I do not see a crash.
Good Luck today
Madmax
MAX,
thanks for your input. I was up late last night, reading a bunch of stuff that stuck in my head. LOL. Probably brain fatigue.
Hi Doug,
Good Morning
US$ is like any other currency goes UP & DOWN on budget surplus/defict.....
There is NOTHING alarming about US$...it IS the most DESIRED currency in the world.
Oil,Gold,Commodities are all priced in US$......
Every elected government uses its PRIORITIES/judgement in creating surplus or deficit.....
With new President the priorities will SHIFT which will turn deficit into surplus in next 8 years....
And as the story book ends....US$ will gradually turn NORTH AGAIN...just like US market.
Euro IS a reality...so why you think AMERO cannot be a reality in next 10 years.....
I will NOT be surprised about Amero......
US,Canada & Mexico actually like each other while Europe killed each other for centuries and they could agree on EURO.....
Enjoy your morning Cappucino !!!
Saleem
Saleem,
thanks for putting it into perspective. There are so many bear arguments out there floating around that if you don't have enough sleep, you can actually start to wonder if they are telling the truth. LOL. Your clarity this morning was a fresh perspective that I needed to hear.
Saleem,
Just wonder what your thoughts are on CMED ER? I want to buy this morning but wanted to get your opinion??? Thanks.
Saleem,
Sorry, I just read your take. No need to reply unless anything has changed. Thanks.
Hi Doug,
CMED ER as I have stated will be good.....
I do NOT know how much of that is priced IN....
Buying on ER day is a bit RISKY especially after this move UP today also.
Saleem
Thanks Saleem. Good advice as ER for companies has been very unpredictable at best, in terms of WS reaction.
CMED earnings for all to see:
unaudited Condensed Consolidated Statements of Income
For the Three Months Ended
December 31,
2006 September 30,
2007 December 31, 2007
RMB RMB RMB US$
(in thousands except for per ADS information)
Revenues, net (1) 161,509 214,896 265,133 36,346
Cost of revenues (44,259 ) (82,687 ) (97,643 ) (13,386 )
Gross profit 117,250 132,209 167,490 22,960
Operating expenses:
Research and development (9,271 ) (8,096 ) (11,577 ) (1,587 )
Sales and marketing (4,252 ) (6,618 ) (8,490 ) (1,164 )
General and administrative (13,538 ) (20,929 ) (24,154 ) (3,311 )
Total operating expenses (27,061 ) (35,643 ) (44,221 ) (6,062 )
Operating income 90,189 96,566 123,269 16,898
Other income 2,624 — 3,033 416
Interest income 11,115 7,785 7,136 978
Interest expense - convertible notes (5,160 ) (9,920 ) (9,755 ) (1,337 )
Interest expense - amortization of convertible notes issuance cost (1,046 ) (2,011 ) (1,978 ) (271 )
Interest expense - other — (1,180 ) (1,181 ) (162 )
Income before tax 97,722 91,240 120,524 16,522
Income tax expense (9,294 ) (13,855 ) (22,723 ) (3,115 )
Net income 88,428 77,385 97,801 13,407
Earnings per ADS - basic 3.30 2.95 3.73 0.51
- diluted (2) 3.24 2.88 3.52 0.48
Weighted average number of ADS - basic 26,765,505 26,210,004 26,238,264 26,238,264
- diluted (2) 29,175,363 30,989,602 31,080,129 31,080,129
Notes:
Saleem,
FYI and all CMED holders -
Source: Briefing.com
10:27AM China Medical Tech beats by $0.14, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY08 EPS guidance, revs guidance (CMED) 55.60 +0.14 : Reports Q3 (Dec) earnings of $0.60 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.14 better than the First Call consensus of $0.46; revenues rose 75.4% year/year to $36.3 mln vs the $36.6 mln consensus. Co reaffirms guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $2.03-2.07 vs. $1.52 consensus; sees FY08 revs of $117.9-121.3 mln vs. $125.61 mln consensus.
Nice looking except for the "sees FY08 revs of $117.9-121.3 mln vs. $125.61 mln consensus"...maybe why the stock is not flying right now.
Regards to all my blog friends.
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