We all are struggling with current market conditions.....which will remain volatile with an UPWARD bias......
We all have our own way of investing & trading......
This market has "tested our patience" and have forced all of US to RETHINK what IS a better approach......
Buy & SLEEP is NOT working...
Buy & take LOSS is NOT working...
Buy & take profit when it comes IS working....
So...it will be SMARTER for all of US to recognize this NEW REALITY of market....
So how do we create funds to reposition ?????
Add more of our savings into stocks.........
Take LOSS in our existing position and redeploy funds into better stocks......
Or put additional funds into existing losing position.......
Guess what...I have used the above two approach with "reasonable success"
This has allowed me to create profit even in this difficult market.........
What you have to realize that MANY stocks are currently out of favour.......
So you have to "de-leverage from those stocks and position into new strong stocks"
In order to identify "new strong stocks" you have to DO homework......
Homework which includes FA , TA plus tape reading......IS critical......
As you can clearly see MOST stocks are below 200 DMA....and some stocks are either hitting new highs or are above 50 DMA......
Your investment savvy is determined if you are ABLE to SPOT strong stocks before they HIT new highs......so please go back to DRAWING board and give yourself a BIG wake-UP call......
Market are in the process of ascending HIGHER........
Ensure that you are adjusting to NEW REALITY of current strong stocks.....
Taking loss must not be a painful process.......
Market has CREATED many LOSS situations......so why NOT you take INITIATIVE of booking some LOSS and CREATE a BETTER portfolio.......
Being STUBBORN in this or any market does NOT work most of the time.....so why try it....
Think...this weekend as the first day of your investing strategy......
Look @ your pool of funds and ask a "simple question"
Are YOU in RIGHT stocks or NOT......& be HONEST.......
If you are NOT...then when are you going to OPTIMIZE the remaining EQUITY !!!!!
I know it IS TOUGH for most of you to ACCEPT REALITY....but you will be WISE to be super CRITICAL & create a NEW action plan which comes into effect IMMEDIATELY......
Please go into a well defined strategy of what IS working in a DIVERSIFIED mode......
Good luck on your first day of becoming a "BETTER Investor/Trader"
I am always happy to answer any question which may help you & many other readers of my BLOG......
Saleem
22 comments:
Hi Saleem,
Business has kept me away from the market for now. What I can say is this. Although I am busy in my wood flooring business in So. California, most are not. I have individuals calling looking for work from other companies. Two large distributors with 60 years in business have filed for bankruptcy and closed the doors without an explanation; one on the East coast and one on the West coast. Not even in the brutal 1989-1993 recession did distributors close this way. They found a way to make business work. We are not even formally in a recession and the floor business is imploding. The latest Hardwood Floor Magazine's theme is "times are challenging". Really! That is a mild way of saying it, imo. I am busy because I work for the ultra rich. But regular America has stopped spending disposable income; therefore the tax rebate. Which most will use to pay bills; I bought a LCD tv. The worse may not be over and this could be the wrong time to be buying stocks unless one is a nimble trader. In and out on a daily/overnight basis. I am not one, so it is cash for me until I see a blow off in the next move down. I do own two stocks underwater and one up; Pinetree Capital.
Hi Stktrader,
Nice to see your post again.
Yes...everybody IS different and have to do what feels RIGHT.
What you are describing in your wood flooring business is a reflection of housing bust & slowing economy.
Market IS a discounting mechanism and it generally forecast 6 months out conditions.....
Timing the market IS an impossible pursuit...I certainly do NOT attempt @ it.
Risk/reward is what we all have to evaluate....and in my books after 5 months of drubbing ...stocks FINALLY are looking like a very good bet !!!!
Good luck with your strategy.
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
You pose some good questions about what are the best stocks to be positioned. I intend to sell two of my positions soon waiting for some news that will minimize potential loses. I am still over weight in CMED and think I should take some profit because it will be overbought here soon and pull back. I just own it at $27.50 and would like to ride three quarters up to $81.00.
I hope I am not being greedy but the fundamentals suggest holding.
What is your take? I plan as soon as I can transfer funds to buy agu and I also have thought gs because they are about making money.
Are you continuing your over weight solar? I am going to buy more ldk and average down I know it is my next years cmed.
Diane
Hi Diane,
Nice to hear from you.
First about your question re solar.....
I can safely say that Solar IS where CMED was @ $19.....
I have two approach in my portfolio.....some to trade & some to recover & profit from.....
I am deeply underwater like a submarine on my LDK but NOT adding as I am already overweight $ allocation wise.
CMED has been a dream ride for many.....I am a very willing passenger on its ride UP ..but DO get off @ my destination.....
ER will be very good for CMED & they MAY RAISE their guidance for the year....this IS what tape is telling ME...but I will stay disciplined & follow MY plan.....
Do whatever feels RIGHT.....
GS will be a very good choice as I own it myself.
Saleem
Saleem,
Thanks, five more days and I am retired from my job. My March training has participants and I am taking a vacation after its completion. Since I already live in Florida it is so beautiful I may just go to the beach.
Life is very good I just don't buy all the negativity about the economy. Florida is where alot of the problems exist. My son is an engineer and has his own company in the building business. He just bought a huge home. The economy is slowing down for sure.
I work in the ghetto and people are finding jobs. Employment has dropped from 94% to 84% of participants working in drug treatment.
I guess I compare the 70's and 80
's. I have seen people stand in lines for a half a mile to get food stamps I use to certify them so I think the tail is wagging the dog.
Does anyone thing the 11,000 Dow drop is going to happen? It appears we are building a base now.
Diane
Hi Diane,
Five more days........to having complete control on your own schedule.....That IS nice !!!
We all NEED to enjoy every MOMENT............
Life IS what you make of IT !!!
Some people by genetics are forced to look & worry about the dark side of life.....
I do NOT know WHY ????
There IS so much to LIVE for !!!
So much to be THANKFUL for !!!!
I guess being Taurus helps me being an eternal OPTIMIST !!!
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
I have put more capital into the market and have seen some fruit for it. Thanks.
Can you give me your take on BUCY? It has come way back and looks strong. May go much higher on FA. I'm tempted to buy into the momentum and ride.
Standards
Hi Standards,
BUCY #3 on IBD 100.....
Based on EPS growth rate......it CAN see $130+
Looks very GOOD from TA...near 52 wk high !!!!
Saleem
Good morning Saleem,
I want to put one or two more trades on today. I'm looking at AGU, MON, ADM, DSX, TKC and OTEX. If you get a minute, could you provide your opinion as to which would be your top two picks for a play? My current portfolio is LDK, CCC, CSX and BABY. In order to stay diversified, I dont have an Agri or tech stock right now and thats why Im looking at these particular stocks. Thanks for your thoughts...
Hi Doug,
Good Morning,
I am looking @ these stocks TODAY for any changes in my portfolio.
NVDA my top choice(Tech)
BUCY my 2nd pick(Machinery for all drilling)
In Ag you can decide between AGU or DBA
I MAY also add to my current GS position.....
If I have thrown you in confusion with totally different picks than what you are looking @........please ask any pointed question.
Saleem
No confusion Saleem. I am appreciative of you sharing your DD. I think today may be AGU for me, although BUCY and others do look good. I will post later if I add another stock. Good luck with CMED today. I bet it will keep running. I sure do hope that LDK reports strong earnings and gives Solars a lift today.
Hi Doug,
Good luck with AGU....it IS a very good buy.
LDK will have good ER & good guidance.....
We should be looking @ a nice POP in AH.....
I will listen to their CC and post my take.
CMED wants to RUN after breakout friday.....
COULD be a very productive day by AH....
Good luck on your 2nd choice...look @ IH list...they are GOOD !!!
Saleem
Sorry, I meant give Solars a lift tomorrow. It would be nice to see some LDK buys going into ER today though.
Saleem,
about IH, the stocks that I listed in my first post this morning, are all IH picks. They have ADM on their buy watch list and I was considering buying in early and taking a chance. You know how they wait for a stock to break through before they make their first entry and sometimes it has worked for me to buy ahead of IH entry, as it is easier to sell for a profit...What I do sometimes is buy and if it is not looking strong on the tape, I will just dump it and try something else...but if it does cooperate and take off as IH thinks it might, then my entry is a couple of dollars less than them and I can get out quicker with a profit. I know that I have discussed that before with you. If I end up doing ADM or TKC, ahead of IH, I will let you know if it worked or not for me. I'm not afraid of trying several attempts each day as commissions are only $7 and I keep track of profit less commissions. So if I spend $56 dollars on trade attempts but I make $400, its all ok with me!!! LOL... Always nice talking with you and I'm never taking for granted the work and time you put in to help others.
DOUG pleas take a look at PWE:
PWE they are only in the drilling business (than sell the oil &nat. gas to other companies) with a proven reserve life of over 10 years. PWE is THE LARGEST oil trust in Canada thanks to resent mergers with a couple other companies. And with oil at $100 a barrel and natural gas at about $9.00 they are making tons of money.
I alos like here is AAPL and RIMM. I will have to look at SALEEMS suggestions. Also consider here GS.
It is a coiled spring IMHO
Madmax
Hi Doug,
If you ask me......
IH is a great source for you to make money....
You have used their system wisely with your own TWIST to enter & exit.
As long as you are ahead of the game by end of the day....it does NOT matter how you got there.
Saleem
Thanks for the thoughtful post MADMAX. I try to stay with IH picks as they provide me with nightly guidance for each stock that they are in. It gives me more conviction to trade along side of them and it has been working for me pretty consistently. For BRUCE, I do agree that AAPL does look good here but Saleem had really good points for Bruce to have his money work for him by letting go of some AAPL right now (he is holding at a loss right now). As to your take on drillers... IH is loaded with oil plays right now, so I think you are right on track. Good luck today.
Saleem,
I made my last post before I read yours! LOL. That is great that you bolstered my IH use and we had posted at the same time, with me commenting to MAD that I stick with IH. LOL..............
SALEEM
Top of the Morning SALEEM.
I like your suggestions to Doug.
Any thoughts as to what you may sell or are close to pulling th etrigger on
Have a great day! the market looks mixed today AGU and CMED are up strongly
Madmax
Hi Madmax,
I will see how my trading stocks do today.....
What are my trading stocks.....
GS,AGU & CMED......I have to watch the tape against the market on these and see which ones are looking better than others...then pull the trigger accordingly.
Solar I am keeping all until $$$ are made...patience & conviction is @ play there......
Saleem
DOUG
BUCY is awsome
IBD says A++.
BEST OF BREED:
Competition
Bucyrus International BUCY
Joy Global Inc JOYG Manitowoc Co MTW
Terex Corp TEX
Caterpillar Inc CAT
It cost arounf $102 that is a little rich but I guess you got the bucks.
I REALLY like its ranking,as follows:
IBD SmartSelect® Corporate Ratings
Earnings Per Share (EPS) Rating Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating Industry Group Relative Strength (Grp RS) Rating Sales + Profit Margins + ROE (SMR) Rating Accumulation/ Distribution (Acc/Dis) Rating
99
98
A+
A
C+
C+ on accululation is Good, I alos like the 98 for price strength
Good luck
Madmax
SALEEM you may enjoy this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBjUh-gZuws
Madmax
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