S&P 500 has been @ current level since Oct 10......basing for more than 3 months.....
S&P 500 closed above 50 DMA 888.75 on Friday......
Slow stochastic is showing oversold reading....
1172 is the 200 DMA on S&P 500....
Nov 20 we closed @ 752.44.....so on a closing basis ..we are @ 890.35 ..137.91 or 18.32% ABOVE closing LOW.....
Why this stat IS important??
Because...there is "real FEAR" which has set IN...in the mind of MOST people.....about economy,jobs,credit,housing & FUTURE.......
If the above is an accurate indicator.......then pessimism is @ HIGHEST level........which IS just what stock market likes to see......to move UP working towards the end of this misery indicator...
Stock Market has a 'Very HIGH probability of making HIGHER HIGHS" in the next TWO weeks......
WHY???
There IS a new administration taking office following Tuesday....
President-elect Obama has done most of the legwork already..to shock this economy into high GEAR.......
Yesterday ...it was pointed out that Obama plan will create as much as 4.1 million job...which will more than compensate for 2.6 million jobs lost already plus additional 1.5 million new jobs....in next 23 months.....an ACCELERATING job creation commitment!!!!
Obama will DOUBLE alternative energy investment in 3 years....so a 33% KICK START for Solar & other AE......
Obama has understood the challenges of this economy BEFORE taking office and is "READY to CHARGE ahead"
So.....
What will stock market do in reaction to all the Obama plans for the economy......Market will look TOWARDS 200 DMA......which is 1172.09 in S&P 500..which will be a GAIN of further 281.74 or +31.6% for 2009.......Not a bad growth by the time 2009 is over......
NO..it is not an OPTIMISTIC scenario ...BUT a very REALISTIC projection....based on how market RECOVERS when there is serious commitment by President of US......
President Clinton had 7.3% unemployment when he took office...by the time he left it was 4% range..with budget SURPLUS.....
See...miracle CAN happen if US President is serious about Job creation...Clinton was & Obama IS....
I KNOW.....It has been ROUGH for most of US.....
BUT..it is time to LOOK AHEAD ..NOT in REAR VIEW mirror...imho
So .....here is my sector weighting based on Friday's close:
HEU.TO Canadian energy stocks ETF 6.8%
HMU.TO World mining stocks with heavy emphasis in gold ETF 40.7%
TAN Global Solar stocks ETF 16.8%
EGLE Dry bulk shipper stock 23.3%
URE Commercial real estate ETF 12.4%
Plus I am short US$........
Good luck in your OWN comfort level & analysis of current environment...Your OWN due diligence is very important in these tough times.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
4 comments:
Hi Saleem,
Woke up early and could not sleep thinking what I just read about your blog. This is the perfect time to get back into market.
Check out these stocks eme,osk,wlt,kbr.
Diane
Hi Diane,
Not able to sleep is a sign that you are contemplating big decision/change.
This time is going to be as perfect as any in recent memory to start investing...looks good going forward.
I will check stocks you have mentioned.
Good luck with your decision to BUY !!!!
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
BDI moving on up. Dry Shippers to benefit. Best to buy on pull backs to capture high yields. ATL gas $1.69 moving up. Traffic is horrid! Shoot me! Good hunting everyone.
Best Regards
Hi Standards,
Thanks for the update on BDI....
Markets are in a funk so far....
Gas is moving UP in Toronto area also....but it should be coming down based on crude today....
Saleem
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