Indices went into overdrive with massive short covering due to
positive news out of Europe.
Markets have been hostage for last six months,
fixated on European debt day after day.....
S&P 500 closed @ well above 200 DMA in high volume, which is a good technical indicator, RSI @ 65.12
Reaction in worldwide markets was jubilant.
Stocks may have to build another base for few weeks after
huge run today, 8% to 16% run in one day is not a norm.
Pundits are too giddy now which needs to be tempered, euphoria
is too high now which is a contrary indicator in short term.
I may be locking profits & trade frequently......
Internals of the market were as follows :
UP volume led by 19.23 to 1 in NYSE & 7.31 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 7.51 to 1 in NYSE & 5.16 to 1 in Nasdaq
New 52 wk highs expanded to 161 in NYSE & 107 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 14.74% @ 25.46...this was NOT down enough ?
Oil closed @ $93.96
Gold closed @ $1747.70
AH ER were greeted as follows :
CLF UP 8.40%
BIDU UP 7.49%
LVS UP 3.96%
AH Futures Down
AH Asian Markets UP
AH Oil, Gold Canadian $ Down
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
19 comments:
Today was a total winner! I have NYSE:FRO and I am looking at doubling my position in it, when do you think is a good time to do that? Should I wait a few days? do you think it will go down or will it continue to go up? It usually sits around $20 and it is currently at $5.84.
Hi Bert,
I do not follow shipping sector @ all.
C & Stocktrader can give you some guidance on that.
Saleem
Hey Bert,
I also have FRO but it is a highly speculative stock given the company's stressed business situation currently. Given this, I would probably only add into strength (confirming the bullish thesis), which I would characterize as a break above the three recent tops at $6-$6.20, so maybe something like $6.40.
Stocktrader
SALEEM
welcome back to us--I missed your comments --I do hope that your friend in the hospital is FINE!!!!
I was up HUGE yesterday! Biggest one day gain since the dot com days.
My guess we will consolidate for a week! ??
I am still looking for a buy here something speculative.
Bert
Shipping stocks are way speculative right now
there is a glut in ships! FRO is a diversified SHIPPING company--which I like, but do NOT own.
The dividend may be in jeopardy and that is not good. Take a look at CSX!
Best to all
Hi C,
Thanks for asking about my friend, hopefully will recover soon.
I am glad that you had a very good day.
My stock gain was only 4.22% just average..BUT my Canadian $ hedge was UP 12% on top of 4.22%..then it became a great day with gain of 16.22%...
Saleem
Stocktrader
If you like CLF, you should like X too, it is trying to breakout
Hey Up,
X's chart does look primed for a breakout! I don't play steel stocks because I don't believe in their story due to structural overcapacity problems, but the business outlook going from poor to neutral can create great stock returns (especially due to heavy short interest in the sector!). I try to set up a portfolio with strong long-term theses such that if something happens to me, the portfolio can be ok even if no one looks at it for a while despite my propensity for high-beta stocks.
Good luck with your trade--it looks very appealing! :)
Stocktrader
Hey Up,
After a bit more thought, I think you can potentially make a case for a good longer term story based on a rebound in housing and resurgence in autos and considering that new steel plants are unlikely to be built any time soon. I guess my disinterest in the trade is more from lack of following the sector due to my previous thoughts, and I feel an underinformed trade can lead to poor and/or emotional decisions when a pullback happens.
Currently, I'd still prefer to play a steel rebound with iron ore (CLF) due to a more favorable supply/demand dynamic, but steel might be on the verge of a longer term inflection point. I'll look at it more over the weekend.
Thanks for the heads up! :)
Stocktrader
Stocktrader
We just finished an operation in Libya, and Middle East is not stable, China and India is growing. They all needed material to build. Dollar is weak, short interest is high, plus X is one of the wall street favorite, so i think all point to a better future with this company. Hey i might be wrong.
Hey Up,
One other point currently is that I already am 100% invested and would have to sell one of my other positions I like and actually have a lot of materials/commodity exposure already.
The breakout looks to be in play--I'm sure your profits will look nice :).
Stocktrader
For Saleem: Sorry to take up so much space on your blog explaining some of my personal thoughts and situations.
HEY ALL
COPPER is the play IMHO.
I like POT and MOS.
If CHK make the deal on sale of some Shale acreage
that will be a catalyst for a nice pop
Good luck in al your decisions.
c
Hi Stocktrader,
I want you to put your logical step to trading as often as you want.
Your analysis is superb, it is of great help to many including me.
Saleem
Hey c,
Despite putting forth the thesis on FCX at $33.90 when you asked about it, I didn't personally act and missed out on the great run (but of course participated with other commodity exposure). I never thought I'd see FCX move that fast--I hope you made some crazy money! :)
Hey Saleem,
Thank you for the kind words. I am glad I can be of help and return the favor for the great insight and analysis I have received from you and others.
Stocktrader
STOCKTRADER
I am seldom right about a stock
But copper has been wonderful:) it is not over yet, IMHO.....
I did real good with FCX and SCCO. Sold FCX!
As for steel --X, fast money does not like it at all
J Cramer likes NUE and I do to.
I did get some IP . A paper play..
I do hope that you got some Oils shale play I was way to soon in CHK but my EVEP is back again. I will see at $75.50 for my 5 round trip.
thanks for your blog postings and please keep them coming.
C
Hey c,
You've got lots of great ones there!
As for shale, I like KOG, but I'm not in at this moment as other stocks have priority given that KOG has now doubled since the lows last month.
Stocktrader
Saleem,
Did you buy anything today as your plan or you just wait for a pull back? LVS did great. Thanks.
Michael
Hi Michael,
I did buy POT @ $50.60..ER came out yesterday which was so so in terms of guidance..but POT has build a nice base in last two months....
It should be on an uptrend now....
Have all the stocks from before, as they are doing better than market.
Saleem
Hey c,
X is a better play than NUE in an upturn because it has it's own iron ore production and therefore doesn't get hurt as much by higher iron ore prices giving it pure leverage to steel prices.
Stocktrader
Saleem,
I bought POT at 50.2. Short term target 55. POT has been underperformed compared to material in this run up. It should be running soon. Thanks.
Michael
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