Politicians got the "message of the markets" & started to do the job for which they were elected for. Market turned on a dime from losses to gain on optimistic tone for a deal.
S&P 500 closed @ 1359.88, low for the day was 1343.35.
RSI @ 31.10
CMF @ -0.188
Internals were :
UP volume led by 2.18 to 1 in NYSE & 1.67 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 2.86 to 1 in NYSE & 1.45 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 132 in NYSE & 147 in Nasdaq
VIX closed Down 8.78% @ 16.41
Oil closed @ $86.67
Gold closed @ $1714.70
Canadian $ @ 99.72
In my portfolio :
Added 30% JCP @ $16.43
Portfolio is APKT,AMZN,CF,JCP
Exposure 52%
Stocks which were UP 2% or more included AMZN,LEN,HMC,
M,EXPE,KORS,LULU,PANW,LVS,RIMM,COH,LNKD,
GMCR,FB,ARNA,SLW,ECA,MLNX,KOG,SNE.....
Next post by 2 PM Sunday
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
5 comments:
SALEEm
I have prayed for your sister ----I hope all is well
I am seeing a lot of action last week and I believe Friday was the tell in APPLE:
There was also other positive news on the stock Friday that could buoy sentiment on the shares as the news gets absorbed in the market. Among these positives were:
It looks like the company is trying to work out its patent war with Google (GOOG) and a possible cross licensing arrangement might be in the works. This would remove a huge distraction and cost for both companies.
It also appears a Google maps app is almost ready for the iPhone5 which would plug one of the few complaints about the smartphone. Nice to see the companies start to resolve their issues.
Speaking of playing nice, Apple has almost doubled sales in the iPad in China since it settled a trademark dispute. Bears on the stock forget that the company is just penetrating this huge consumer market.
In addition, Morgan Stanley issued comments stating it believes Apple will sign an agreement with China Mobile (CHL) next year as well as reiterated their buy rating and $714 a share price target.
Another huge new market that Apple may open up is TV and rumors came out that tests are going on with a major cable-TV player.
Finally, CNBC came out with an "Apple is a once in a lifetime" buy now call with Joe Terranova joining Doug Kass in pushing the buy button on the stock. I would look for more stories like this on the network next week. I especially think investors should pay attention to these observations from Kass "There's chatter that several hedge funds were over their skis in Apple," Kass said. "I know a number of hedge funds that have in excess of a 15% weighting." "It's been acting as ATM for hedge funds - a good way to raise cash." If accurate, this certainly could explain the price action in the stock over the last few weeks and bode well for a rebound in the near future.
Bottom Line: Apple is selling for less than 8 times forward earnings (subtracting net cash), growing revenues at better than 20% pace, with new markets to conquer and is giving investors a 35% discount to where it was trading just two months ago. Buying now could be the best Christmas present under the tree this year.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT:
Cramer said. While he can be a cheerleader when things are going up, but he has been around for a long time and doesn't sugarcoat things, especially the political process. Note that Pelosi came out and said something to the effect that they had to calm the markets in the short term. So everyone comes out smiling but they are still miles away from any kind of deal.
The market was due for a bounce and now the technical levels play an important role. The S&P may have even bounced to the 200 dma. Next week is a shortened week and historically there are rallies during this week, but unless the ball has been moved, I would expect the selling to resume when we get back for a full week.
I almost was ready to nibble at some divi stocks BUT?? no not yet
.. good luck to everyone.
c
Hey c,
Great commentary! AAPL got so cheap that even I had to buy some on Friday, which is unusual because I usually look for minimum 10%+ moves. Finally I feel AAPL can see this kind of upside in the shorter term and importantly is cheap enough to make the downside potential limited. The Google maps thing to me is a huge deal--it will definitely cause some holdouts to finally upgrade this holiday season. I am hoping for a possible special dividend prior to the tax changes at the end of the year--I give it a 20% chance.
Stocktrader
Hi C,
There is a "bullish " article in Barron this week..AAAPL to $800 it says.....
Thanks for your prayer.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
For the first time in a long time, I was up every day this week and had an overall weekly gain of 2.4%. The TZA was obviously the main driver (~10% gain and highly overweight) with some help from SPLK which had a nice gain of 6% on the week after a long down run. Here's the revamped portfolio as of Friday close:
ELOQ - 11.6%
GWAY - 9.8%
CRUS - 9.3%
GGC - 9.1%
AAPL - 7.2%
FIO - 7.1%
CF - 7.0%
PANW - 7.0%
SPLK - 6.7%
APKT - 6.6%
PFPT - 4.8%
APWC - 2.5%
(cash) - 11.2%
Along with selling TZA on Friday, this week was my chance to add to many both beaten techs (PFPT, FIO, PANW, ELOQ, AAPL, CRUS) and also some relatively strong performers (APKT, GGC, GWAY). I feel now I have a great group of companies for the future. I have my eyes on WPRT, TM, and PRU for potential buys.
As for the overall market, Friday seems to have been a very key reversal day with a new low set early in the morning, but rallying to near highs by the end of the day, and all on high volume. I realize this could merely have been short-lived short-covering, but it felt like there something was different. At worst, I believe some important stocks have finally bottomed (AAPL/tech), and at best, we may have seen the overall market bottom.
I realize that any final budget deal is likely a month away, but the tone from the lawmakers tells me they understand the seriousness of this issue and will actually bring a solution to market. As I mentioned in last week's recap, I expected the bulk of the potential declines to come this past week as people fear what has happened before in these types of negotiations. Also, since we've long known about this fiscal cliff, there are many market participants that sold out 1-2 months ago and have dry powder to deploy now. Bottoms always seem to happen sooner than we think they should. Granted there will likely be "scare" days, but I think the worst is behind us now.
Europe seems to have moved past the systemic risks despite Greece in the headlines still, but growth there remains sluggish. It may take longer than I thought for robustness to return there, so I am less constructive on European exposed-stocks. I believe China is nicely stabilizing, and although it won't bring massive outperformance anymore, I think taking the tail-risk of a crash off the table is helpful for market tone.
Overall, I feel the market has nearly or completely discounted the fiscal cliff problems and I want exposure to the future growth sectors of the US/World. I will selectively use my remaining cash to add to certain places and look forward to getting back to the individual company analysis instead of being held hostage to fears and macro moves.
Here's to the short week! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Very good thought process of this market & near term scenario.
I have a feeling that we are in a "sideways mode" until "real news comes out"
Saleem
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