Indices were struggling on low volume.
S&P 500 closed @ 1380.03
RSI @ 33.86
CMF -0.055
Internals were :
Down volume led by 1.27 to 1 in NYSE & 1.05 to 1 in Nasdaq
Declining stocks led by 1.13 to 1 in NYSE & 1.17 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 24 in NYSE & 68 in Nasdaq
VIX closed UP 10.37% @ 16.68
Oil closed @ $85.57
Gold closed @ $1730.90
Stocks which closed UP included BIDU,APKT,
CF,YHOO,CMG,TCK,PCLN,LULU,FCX,TZA,
RIMM,COH,LNKD,MA,GMCR,FB,LRCX,
BRCM,CIEN,C,ARNA,X,CCJ,SINA,MS,
BJRI,GS.....
AH Futures Down
AH Asian Markets Down
AH Oil & Gold Down
About market, TAPE has been weak & needs capitulation. Internals have been weak but needs an extreme negative ratios to qualify for capitulation. Currently there is still hope & optimism that many are predicting a "move UP on a daily basis". I think we test 1373.03 in S&P 500 and go lower. This analysis is based on historical trend. A flush out & then recovery. IF i have to take a guess...it looks like Thursday may be an UP day.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
8 comments:
S
\
wow an ugly prediction of the future
Yeks
I am down lots--I sold ERF for a 50% haircut
Oh Well
Best to all
Thursday --Hmmmm
Oh thanks for the blog
C
Hi C,
It is tough for everyone.
This downtrend is severe.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Bought FIO 21.71. I've been waiting to get into this name because I feel even in a bad scenario the downside is limited at these levels, and now it's gotten upgraded two days in a row now--today from sell to buy at a brokerage--important change of heart.
This buy is helping me get closer to neutral positioning.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good luck with FIO......
Upgrades should help.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Bought PANW 53.1164. This leading edge firewall security company has been on my "to-buy" list for a while but I was hoping for more like $46-$48. I like the fact that the subscription model smooths out the bumpiness we may experience this quarter.
I currently have room for one more stock if I don't sell any of my TZA negative positioning. My targets are APKT and GGC, with a lean towards GGC unless CSCO says some really positive things tonight.
I also feel like I don't have enough exposure to an improving emerging markets landscape, but am not really comfortable with any of the names I follow. I also still wonder if we are really seeing re-acceleration or just stabilization.
I struggle to ignore the message the $VIX is telling. I feel like people are too optimistic about a quick fiscal cliff resolution and that we'll see all rallies evaporate eventually, but maybe this is climbing the wall of worry?
Trying to figure things out...
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good luck with PANW.
I sold BIDU & bought CF.
I have to add one more..but in non-CSCO impact stock.....
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
They key for CF to me is sustainable earnings (food needs growing/low nat gas) and massive cash flow (allowing for opportunistic buybacks/dividends). I am glad both you and I own it! :)
As for BIDU, ever since I really got burned on some Chinese stocks a year or so ago, I have sworn them off. It is too difficult for me to judge the changing competitive landscape in China and there's always the chance for unexpected government intervention. I may miss some opportunities by not investing directly there, but I feel more secure in my investments, and also realize there's plenty of US companies with Chinese-based revenues for me to participate if I choose.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Thanks for your analysis on CF.
BIDU TAPE broke down today..thus my exit.....
YES..Chinese stocks are highly volatile......& unpredictable based on changing competitive landscape.
Saleem
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