Tuesday, April 30, 2013

All indices closed @ absolute high of the day....NICE !!!!!

Indices showed technical strength by closing @ the highest point in all major index, an absolute rarity.

S&P 500 @ 1597.57

RSI @ 61.63

CMF @ 0.249

Internals were :

UP volume led by 1.63 to 1 in NYSE & 2.12 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 2.02 to 1 in NYSE & 1.55 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 290 in NYSE & 125 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 1.39% @ 13.52

Oil @ $93.46

Gold @  $1472.10

Stocks which were UP 2% or more included BBRY AUY 
AAPL FB CLF SU GG EGO AEM SLW MA FSLR 
CCJ SINA IBN....

AH ER :

AUY Down 1.95%

FIRE UP 9.92%

AH Futures Mixed

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil Down 

AH Gold UP

About market, We are sitting @ absolute new high for S&P 500 both on intraday & closing basis. TAPE wants to go higher to make more highs. It is important not to get caught in euphoria & keep an eye on VIX & RSI for overbought conditions. To minimize risk booking profit is the logical thing to do. Chinese official PMI came in lower than expectations 50.6% vs 51.0% expected for April. I do not believe that it will affect US market & we may make a contra move UP to confuse skeptics.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

AUY misses on Sales & EPS on lower Gold prices & higher production cost.....

AUY is reporting the following :

Sales consensus $558.69 million
Sales actual $534.87 million

EPS consensus 18 cents
EPS actual 16 cents

AUY was able to increase its Gold production to 291,312 GEO ( Gold Equivalent Ounce) +4% YOY

All in Gold production cost is $856 GEO, cash cost is $383 GEO

Considering the pressure on Gold prices & sky high cost of producing Gold, this earning report is more than satisfactory. AUY  to control all cost in future quarter going forward.

AUY AH Bid $12.00 ASK $12.10

AUY closed @ $12.30.

Conference call @ 11.00 AM Wednesday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem


Indices green......NICE !!!!

Indices recovering from early weakness. They are green.

S&P 500 @ 1594.33, high 1596.78... it should do more than breathing @ all time high of 1597.35 but take it out today.

Internals are positive.

Oil Down $1.11

Gold UP $4.60

Canadian $ UP 35 tick @ 99.27, GDP came in better than expected @ .3% growth.

VIX Down 1.24% @ 13.54

In my portfolio :

Bought AUY @ $11.70

Portfolio EBAY HMC JCP BBRY AUY

Exposure 90%

AUY reports late AH, expectation is Sales $564.56 million EPS 18 cents, guidance expected Sales $611.83 million EPS 18 cents.......AUY is among the fastest growing gold company & have low gold cost.....how they are adjusting to low Gold prices will be highlighted in this conference call @ 11 AM on Wed or earnings report. I do expect them to meet expectations considering everything in Gold market.

Most stocks are UP

@ 2.11 following are red :

EBAY HMC JCP AUY KOG RDN 
MOS EXPE PCLN LEN BAC
TZA CF CMG M BIDU GG
JASO ZNGA MU SNDK
C MCD X STLD SLW
SPWR ECA MLNX
AGU....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, April 29, 2013

Indices closed UP .72% to .85%.....NICE !!!!

Indices closed UP on positive momentum.

S&P 500 @ 1593.61, high today 1596.65 missed new high by less than 1 point.

RSI @ 60.48

CMF @ 0.217

Internals were :

UP volume led by 3.59 to 1 in NYSE & 2.33 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 2.77 to 1 in NYSE & 2.21 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk high were leading by 220 in NYSE & 129 in Nasdaq

VIX UP .73% @ 13.71

Oil @ $94.50

Gold @ $1467.40

Stocks which were UP 1% or more included JCP,BBRY,
RDN COH LULU AAPL POT MOS AGU MON 
GOOG TCK CLF TCK CF SU YUM FFIV
JASO SPWR FSLR CRUS GMCR BRCM
JDSU NVDA MCD X STLD SLW 
SINA ECA MGA MS FCX

AH ER :

RVBD Down 6.67%

BWLD UP 1.24%

ESRX UP 2.12%

AH Futures Mixed

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil Down

AH Gold UP

About market, tonight IBD got the religion finally @ new highs & changing its market outlook to "market in confirmed uptrend". As you can clearly see that many desciple of IBD missed this run & joining the believers on month end. Market looks all set to take out highs & establish new ones.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem


Indices rallying on hope of ECB rate cut....NICE !!!!

ECB rate cut hope has fueled a big rally for several days.

Indices are all UP from .84% to 1.05%....

S&P 500 @ 1596.03 breathing near record of 1597.35

Internals are positive by 2 to 1

Oil UP $1.20

Gold UP $13.80

Canadian $ UP 47 tick @ 98.76

VIX Down 1.47% @ 13.41

Portfolio EBAY HMC JCP BBRY

Most stocks are UP

@ 1.55 following are red :

YHOO AMZN EXPE LEN TZA LVS
ZNGA LRCX MU GG AEM MLNX

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sunday, April 28, 2013

Markets....where to ?

This week May will show its much dreaded start.

Let us see what is in store for this week & how it may play out :

-May 2nd is ECB rate decision

-Friday is Jobs report

Those are the key driver of this TAPE

ECB may give us the good news of rate cut, this will be a huge positive for worldwide stock market.

Friday's jobs report is expected to disappoint again......150 K is expected, we will be lucky to come close to this number...so Friday could be a down day.

TAPE is acting very erratic in many commodities like Gold, Oil.......

Some traders are resorting to gain by crook like tweeting explosion in White House......ironically no one is nabbed yet?

IBD still believes that "market is in correction"

My guess is, that we may look very strong & make new highs all over...then come Friday & we head lower.....

As i have said repeatedly, do not be fixated on S&P 500 or Dow or Nasdaq...focus on individual stocks & know their pattern well.

There is tremendous amount of money to be made in individual stocks...most of these stocks have been ignored by Wall Street.

There may be opportunities in non-sexy sectors like Gold,Silver,Copper,Coal,Iron ore, Steel, Solar to name a few.

SO you can be all fixated on "sell in May" BUT there is money to be made in many stocks.

Whatever gives you the profit should be the mantra of the hour / day / week / month.......

So get to doing some quality homework & benefit from weak TAPE as & when it comes.

Do not forget to lock profit, don't be greedy till October.

Good luck with your stock focus, let market do what it needs to do.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem


Friday, April 26, 2013

Indices closed mixed.......

US GDP came in lower than consensus which put downward pressure on TAPE. By close only Dow showed a small gain.

S&P 500 @ 1582.24

RSI @ 57.07

CMF @ 0.180

Internals were :

Down volume led by 1.88 to 1 in NYSE & 1.27 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 1.45 to 1 in NYSE & 1.66 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 128 in NYSE & 65 in Nasdaq

VIX Down .07% @ 13.61

Oil @ $93.00

Gold @ $1453.60

Canadian $ UP 24 tick @ 98.30

Stocks which closed green included EBAY,JCP,BBRY,
RDN,AAPL,LEN,FB,TZA,MA,JASO,SPWR,
ZNGA,LRCX,SNDK,SINA,MGA,WYNN......

Here is portfolio weighting :

BBRY 35.16%

EBAY 26.84%

HMC  20.63%

JCP  17.37%

Exposure 88%

HMC earnings was a beat & guidance was above expectations. Stock is technically set for a breakout again @ $40.96 for a target of $43.16 as per www.stockconsultant.com.......future looks very bright for HMC !!!!

Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, April 25, 2013

Indices closed UP .17% to .62%...NICE !!!!

Indices closed UP but below best level of the day.

S&P 500 @ 1585.16, high of the day 1592.64

RSI @ 58.27

CMF @ 0.210

Internals were :

UP volume led by 1.99 to 1 in NYSE & 1.97 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.86 to 1 in NYSE & 1.70 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 286 in NYSE & 141 in Nasdaq

VIX UP .07% @ 13.62

Oil @ $93.64

Gold @ $1462.00

Stocks which were UP 2% or more included RDN,CLF,
COH,KORS,DNKN,AMZN,POT,CF,M,WYNN,
LVS,BIDU,FFIV,JASO,CRUS,LRCX,X,SLW,
SINA,KOG.....

AH ER :

Negative reaction :
SBUX -2.56%, AMZN -3.20%, EXPE -5.34%, BIDU -8.13%

Positive reaction CSTR UP 8.18%

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil Down

AH Gold UP

About market, TAPE showed weakness before closing but internals remained strong. Q1 GDP is expected to be 3% which may not be attainable. There is still a ECB bid in the market. Earnings were weak tonight & may impact TAPE.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices UP .61% to .91%.....NICE !!!!!

Indices are near high of the day & getting close to record level. Jobless claims were better than expected.

S&P 500 @ 1592.23

Internals are positive by 2 to 1

Oil UP $1.90

Gold UP $39.70

Canadian $ UP 59 tick @ 98.04

VIX Down 3.23% @ 13.17...watch for 12 level for pressure on equities.

In my portfolio :

Added 20% JCP @ $15.25

Portfolio EBAY,HMC,JCP,BBRY

Exposure 88%

HMC reports before open Sales expected $27.12 billion EPS expected 61 cents....guidance expected Sales $26.52 billion EPS 84 cents...this Q is end of fiscal year in March....expecting a beat..HMC @ new 52 wk high today.....

Most stocks are UP

@ 2.09 following are red :

EBAY,BBRY,LULU,GOOG,TZA,YUM,ZNGA,
BRCM,SNDK,QCOM,FSLR,
CCJ,MLNX,IBN....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem




Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Indices closed mixed......

Indices closed almost flat on the day.

S&P 500 @ 1578.79

RSI @ 56.41

CMF @ 0.251

Internals were :

UP volume led by 2.24 to 1 in NYSE & 1.56 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.93 to 1 in NYSE & 1.29 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 259 in NYSE & 81 in Nasdaq

VIX UP .96% @ 13.61

Oil @ $91.43

Gold @ $1423.70

Stocks which were UP 1% or more included BBRY,
YHOO,AUY,RDN,COH,LULU,POT,MOS,AGU,
TCK,BAC,CLF,CF,SU,YUM,LVS,WYNN,
PANW,JASO,FSLR,SPWR,GG,EGO,SLW,
AEM,CRUS,GMCR,ZNGA,LRCX,BRCM,
C,SNDK,NVDA,MCD,X,STLD,CCJ,
SINA,MGA,KOG,IBN,FCX...

AH ER:

Negative reaction :
QCOM -5.76%, MLNX -6.19%, ZNGA -8.93%, CTXS -11.32%

Positive reaction :
LRCX +2.84%, WDC +3.97%, CLF +4.34%, AKAM +17.70%

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, TAPE has new life as ECB is all set to cut interest rate to give boost to European economy. Bad economic news is taken as good news & better news is taken as great news, that IS the current environment. There was a major shift in sector preference, commodities, Solar,Oil, Base metals & Precious Metals was the flavor of the day. Ironically IBD still thinks "market is in correction"...while we have moved UP almost 2.74% from recent low.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices are mixed.....

Indices are mixed as US data was weaker than expected.
European markets closed on a strong note again UP .40% to 1.58% on ECB rate cut hope.

S&P 500 @ 1579.65

Internals are mostly positive

Oil UP $1.79

Gold UP $13.80

Canadian $ Down 11 tick @ 97.33

VIX Unchanged @ 13.48

Portfolio EBAY,HMC,JCP,BBRY

Most stocks are UP

@ 1.33 following are red :

JCP,KORS,AAPL,EXPE,PCLN,LEN,TZA,
M,BIDU,FFIV,LNKD,MU,JDSU,CIEN,
FNSR,ECA,MS.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Indices closed UP 1.04% to 1.11% ....NICE !!!!!

Indices closed near high of the day.

S&P 500 @ 1578.78

RSI @ 56.40

CMF @ 0.304

Internals were :

UP volume led by 4.19 to 1 in NYSE & 3.33 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 4.01 to 1 in NYSE & 3.27 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 239 in NYSE & 104 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 6.32% @ 13.48

Oil @ $89.18

Gold @ 1408.80

AH ER :

AAPL Down .54%, VMW Down 5.87%,PNRA Down 6.34% 
JNPR Down 6.39%, CREE Down 7.44%

YUM UP 4.46%, BRCM UP 5.82%

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, TAPE followed Europe lead in moving UP as data worldwide was mostly weak. There is speculation that on May 2nd ECB will cut interest rates to stimulate European economy, same is being talked about China. When easing starts anywhere stock market takes off. US markets have been the-best performing in developed world. IF European markets takes off it will be an added boost to US stock market.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices UP .90% to .97%....NICE !!!!

Indices are UP as European markets are on a roll UP anywhere from 2% to 3.58% on interest rate cut hope.

S&P 500 @ 1576.54

Internals are positive by almost 3 to 1

Oil Down 29 cents

Gold Down $10.40

Canadian $ Down 5 tick @ 97.43

VIX Down 5% @ 13.67

Portfolio EBAY,HMC,JCP,BBRY

Most stocks are UP

@ 2.20 following are red :

JCP,AUY,TCK,MOS,FB,TZA,CF,CMG,YUM,
GG,SLW,AEM,EGO,MON,X,ECA,KOG,
AGU,FCX....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, April 22, 2013

Indices closed UP .14% to .86%....NICE !!!!!

Indices struggled initially but closed green.

S&P 500 @ 1562.50

RSI @ 51.66

CMF @ 0.217

Internals were :

UP volume led by 1.62 to 1 in NYSE & 2.58 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.40 to 1 in NYSE & 1.09 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 105 in NYSE & 29 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 3.87% @ 14.39

Oil @ $88.76

Gold @ $1421.20

Stocks which were UP 1% or more included JCP,BBRY,
YHOO,AUY,TIF,LULU,AMZN,AAPL,POT,MOS,
EXPE,PCLN,LEN,TCK,SU,PANW,LNKD,GG,
EGO,AEM,CRUS,ZNGA,QCOM,FSLR,KOG,
SPWR,FCX.....

AH ER NFLX UP 24.65%

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil Down

AH Gold UP

About market, TAPE was half decent @ close. This TAPE will be news / event / earnings driven. The minute it feels stable any bad news can derail this TAPE. Many traders & hedge funds know the seasonality risk & are extremely jittery. This TAPE is good for swing trading / daytrading. Any investment thesis will face  tremendous risk till October.

Chinese flash PMI came in @ 50.5 in April compared to 51.6 in March. This is slightly better than Feb of 50.4....@ best its a slow grind above 50.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices green......NICE !!!!

Indices are green after being down earlier. Economic data was weak from US.

S&P 500 @ 1561.84 @ high of the day, low today 1548.19

Internals are mostly positive.

Oil UP 58 cents

Gold UP $30.00

Canadian $ Down 9 tick @ 97.36

VIX Down 1.80% @ 14.70

Portfolio EBAY,HMC,JCP,BBRY

Most stocks are UP

@ 2.13 following are down :

EBAY,HMC,RDN,COH,KORS,DNKN,
GOOG,TZA,CLF,CF,CMG,BIDU,MA,
V,SNDK,C,MCD,X,STLD,MLNX,
AGU.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem


Sunday, April 21, 2013

Will AAPL earning report start a downtrend......

All eyes are fixated on AAPL earning report on Tuesday after close.

AAPL upcoming earning has been microscopically analyzed by many who know everything about this company.

BUT same analysts were trying to outdo each other with their ever increasing earnings & targets, highest back in September was $1111.......stock did go up to $705.07 in September 2012.....which came within 37% of that magical number of $1111 .....

Now we are @ $390.53 down $314.54 per share or 44.61%

Option is predicting that there will be a 7.5% move in either direction in AAPL share.....so AAPL could be either @ $419.20 or $360.80

Many smart buyer are waiting to buy AAPL around $350 area.....

Now the big question is IF AAPL bad earning or lousy guidance will tank this market or start a downtrend just in time for "sell in May & go away" crowd......

S&P 500 is sitting above key support @ 1555.25 & looks extremely vulnerable.....

BUT many pundits are predicting S&P 500 above 1600 by mid year.......

74% of money managers are extremely bullish which is all time high going back 20 years......this is "never a good thing" from contrary point of view........

SO...AAPL or not indices are in borrowed time.......be it this Wednesday or next Wednesday this uptrend looks to be in serious jeopardy......

Knowing this is more important, because it controls temptations to be fully exposed or be too confident in your exposure......

Booking any profit should be the biggest focus going forward.......

Buying strategically for quick trade is the mantra till October....

It is WISE to adjust to seasonality........

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, April 19, 2013

Indices closed UP .07% to 1.25%.....NICE !!!!

Indices rebounded from some selling pressure & closed green.

S&P 500 @ 1555.25

RSI @ 49.38

CMF @ 0.246

Internals were :

UP volume led by 2.91 to 1 in NYSE & 2.74 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 2.69 to 1 in NYSE & 2.29 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 124 in NYSE & 23 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 14.75% @ 14.97

Oil @ $88.01

Gold @ $1395.60

Canadian $ @ 97.38

Stocks which were UP 1% or more included HMC, BBRY,
RDN,DNKN,GOOG,EXPE,LEN,BAC,CMG,LVS,M,
V,GMCR,MU,MON,FSLR,SBUX,EGO,MGA,MS,
MLNX,WYNN......

Here is portfolio weighting :

BBRY 35.06%

EBAY 28.96%

HMC  21.92%

JCP  14.06%

Exposure 85%

Next post by 2 PM on Sunday

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, April 18, 2013

Indices closed down .56% to 1.20%....

Indices pulled back again due to weak data.

S&P 500 @ 1541.61 low today 1536.03, 50 DMA 1543.04

RSI @ 44.84

CMF @ 0.193

Internals were :

Down volume led by1.36 to 1 in NYSE & 3.13 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 1.25 to 1 in NYSE & 1.56 to 1 in Nasdaq

New 52 wk highs were leading in NYSE by 9 BUT new lows were leading by 30 in Nasdaq

Oil @ $87.73

Gold @ $1392.50

AH ER :

ISRG Down 3.01%

IBM  Down 4.3%

LSCC Down 5.67%

GOOG UP 1.42%

MSFT UP 2.67%

CMG   UP 3.54%

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Oil & Gold UP

About market, we had 3.84% pullback in S&P 500 in five trading days which should hold for now. Earnings tonight is better than last few days which should give a boost to positive TAPE action. It is important to find your own niche in this jittery environment. Friday is Option expiry for week & month BUT it may give boost to upward momentum.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices down .55% to 1.21%.....

Indices are weak today on weaker data.

S&P 500 @ 1541.65, low today so far 1541.05,  below 50 DMA of  1543.10

Internals are negative

Oil UP 87 cents

Gold UP $8.70

Canadian $ UP 7 tick @ 97.46

VIX UP 4.60% @ 17.27...this is near high end of trading range looks good for a turnaround for equities

Portfolio EBAY,HMC,JCP,BBRY

Most stocks are down

@ 2.08 following are UP

JCP,AUY,COH,POT,CLF,CF,SU,GG,
JASO,LRCX,X,STLD,EGO,SLW,
AEM,ECA,CCJ,AGU,IBN,FCX......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem


Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Indices closed down .94% to 1.84%.....

Indices reacted to poor earnings report & fear of slow growth.

S&P 500 @ 1552.01

RSI @ 47.88

CMF @ 0.211

Internals were :

Down volume led by 10.08 to 1 in NYSE & 5.67 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 3.44 to 1 in NYSE & 4.37 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 42 in NYSE & 39 in Nasdaq

VIX UP 18.27% @ 16.51

Oil @ $86.68

Gold @ $1382.70

AH ER :

SNDK UP 1.31%

EBAY Down 2.62%

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil & Gold Down

About market, IBD tonight is changing its market outlook to "market in correction". TAPE has turned negative all over. Nasdaq is below 50 DMA which may be telling us that other indices to go below 50 DMA also. All this negativity can push indices lower in a hurry BUT it may complete this pullback also. I am expecting jittery market until October. It is how you benefit from it is the issue.Many stocks will outperform in this weak season, it is important to find them & show conviction.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

EBAY beats on EPS but guides below consensus....

EBAY reported Q1 :

Sales consensus $3.77 billion actual $3.75 billion

EPS consensus 62 cents actual 63 cents

Guidance :

Sales expectations $3.95 billion guiding $3.85 billion

EPS expectations 66 cents guiding 62 cents

Stock trading @ bid $54.90 ask $54.99 closed @ $56.10

Will listen to conference call @ 5 PM.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices down .83% to 1.73%......

Indices are pulling back on poor earnings report.

S&P 500 @ 1552.87, low today 1543.69, 50 DMA is 1542.45

Internals are negative by minimum 4 to 1

Oil Down $1.83

Gold Down $11.90

Canadian $ Down 52 tick @ 97.43

VIX UP 18.70% @ 16.57

In my portfolio :

Sold BAC

Bought EBAY @ $56.20

Portfolio is EBAY,HMC,JCP,BBRY

Exposure 85%

EBAY reports tonight, expecting a beat & higher guidance.

Most stocks are down

@ 2.36 following are green :

BBRY,HMC,LULU,KORS,JASO,LRCX,
MOS.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Indices closed UP 1.08% to 1.50%......NICE !!!!!

Indices reversed course today & went UP.

S&P 500 @ 1574.57

RSI @ 55.46

CMF @ 0.245

Internals were :

UP volume led by 6.37 to 1 in both NYSE & Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 4.57 to 1 in NYSE & 3.43 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 41 in NYSE & 15 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 19.17% @ 13.96

Oil @ $88.72

Gold @ $1387.40

Stocks which were UP 2% or more included BAC,JCP,
EBAY,EXPE,LEN,TCK,SU,LNKD,V,CRUS,
GMCR,ZNGA,LRCX,MU,BRCM,C,
SNDK,MON,FSLR,STLD,SPWR,
MGA,KOG,WYNN,IBN.....

AH News :

INTC UP .71%

YHOO Down 4.12%

CRUS Down 10.84%

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Oil UP

AH Gold Down

About market, TAPE was impressive today. This market has defied many seasoned old timers who keep insisting on being short for a long time. It is important to have a very good feel for this TAPE or else you will be fighting an uphill battle with each position or entry. As we have all noted that lately correction has been less than 3%, it is important to look for an opportunity to get in for a nice trade. I believe that volatility will be a part of this market until October, embrace it instead of fighting.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices UP .89% to 1.31%...NICE !!!!!

Indices are UP after reacting to data & news yesterday.

S&P 500 @ 1571.24

Internals are positive by  minimum 3 to 1

Oil UP 10 cents

Gold UP $26.00

Canadian $ UP 43 tick @ 97.89

VIX Down 17.72% @ 14.21

Portfolio BAC,BBRY,JCP,HMC

YHOO reports tonight, expecting a beat & in-line guidance. CEO needs to focus more on mobile strategy which is holding YHOO back while GOOG, AAPL & FB are ahead in that arena. Currently she is into user interface mode.

BAC reports before open, expecting a beat & ongoing improvement in their business & loan loss provision.

Most stocks are UP

@ 2.03 following are red :

YHOO,COH,KORS,JDSU,CIEN,FNSR,
SINA,ECA,GS.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Monday, April 15, 2013

Indices tumble 1.79% to 2.38%.......

Indices were in freefall as fear gripped traders.

S&P 500 @ 1552.36

RSI @ 47.93

CMF @ 0.192

Internals were :

Down volume led by 14.10 to 1 in NYSE & 17.42 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining Stocks led by 7.19 to 1 in NYSE & 7.86 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs led by 2 in NYSE & new low led by 5 in Nasdaq

VIX rocketed UP 43.20% @ 17.27

Oil @ $88.71

Gold @ $1361.10

AH Futures UP

AH Asian Markets Down

AH Oil & Gold Down

About market, IBD is changing its market outlook tonight to "uptrend under pressure". S&P 500 has lost 2.82% from its absolute high to low of today. This is similar to pullback @ end of February. IF you look @ internals, it is among the steepest in a long time. Today was a capitulation day for many which may start a new uptrend. It is a good time to start many trading position.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices down 1.10% to 1.64%........

Indices are taking a beating after Chinese GDP came in @ 7.7% which is below consensus.Official target is GDP growth of 7.5% for 2013 ?

S&P 500 @ 1565.79, low today so far 1564.08

Internals are negative minimum 3 to 1

Oil Down $2.46

Gold Down $134.70

Canadian $ Down 86 tick @ 97.83

VIX UP 20.40% @ 14.52

Portfolio BAC,BBRY,JCP,HMC.....

Most stocks are down

@ 1.53 following are green :

BBRY,LULU,C,MLNX,IBN......

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Sunday, April 14, 2013

Technicians target for S&P 500 proving to be too conservative ?

Technicians are confused about S&P 500 strength in Q 1......

68% of technicians / strategists falling short in their year end target, first time this happened since 1995

75% have already seen their year end target completed in 4 months

Mid year S&P 500 target already completed for 27 out of 28 strategist

SO..the bottom line is that S&P 500 target for 2013 was too low by most analysts & their time frame was back end loaded which has proven too conservative....

SO.....most analysts are busy coming up with new multiple for S&P 500 to increase their target.

1660 is the magic number for S&P 500 for 2013

The best pullback we had so far in 2013 was 2.8% in late February

This week is Option Expiry on Friday & VIX is expiring on Wednesday

Generally there is more volatility in the week of Option Expiry...

IF we get a day & half pullback, it may provide a good entry for trade.

They way i see it, till end of September, it is time for opportunistic trade & be involved with trades that are working.

VIX @ 12.06 is a reason for some kind of pullback in market.

One bear is predicting a fast 8% to 10% decline.....

Biggest bear Robert Prechter keeps on harping that we are going well below 2009 low ?????
He has used this thesis since 2009 & keep insisting its imminent every 3 months.......he does not care that he has been proven wrong by market for over four years..something everyone should learn that never be married to your own conclusion IF market has proven you wrong....NEVER FIGHT THE TAPE

Here is my weighting :

BBRY 33.69%

BAC  31.70%

HMC  21.48%

JCP    13.13%

Exposure 82%

In conclusion, this TAPE is proving most of the pundits wrong. 

This TAPE is also proving that many star stocks are taking it on the chin.

Stock selection & high conviction is the key.

Start fresh with new ideas which is working better.

Never forget to book profit.

Seasonally we have entered a "weaker period"...recognize this but look for opportunity to make money.

Remember.... you are buying individual stocks not S&P 500, they may perform way better than index, even in weak periods.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Friday, April 12, 2013

Indices closed down.......

Indices fought its way for better close.

S&P 500 @ 1588.85, low today 1579.97

RSI @ 64.59

CMF @ 0.277

Internals were :

Down volume led by 2.13 to 1 in NYSE & 1.54 to 1 in Nasdaq

Declining stocks led by 1.54 to 1 in NYSE & 1.46 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 131 in NYSE & 70 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 1.47% @ 12.06

Oil @ $91.29

Gold @ $1501.40

Portfolio BAC,BBRY,JCP,HMC

Stocks which closed green included BBRY,
YHOO,LULU,DNKN,AMZN,PCLN,
LEN,CMG,YUM,LVS,WYNN,BIDU,
SINA,LNKD,NVDA,SBUX,MCD,
MLNX......

Next post by 2 PM Sunday.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Indices closed UP .09% to .42%....NICE !!!!

Indices managed to closed green.

S&P 500 @ 1593.37, high today 1597.35

RSI @ 67.28

CMF @ 0.308

Internals were :

UP volume led by 1.70 to 1 in NYSE & .86 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 1.59 to 1 in NYSE & .98 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 368 in NYSE & 158 in Nasdaq

VIX Down .97% @ 12.24

Oil @ $93.51

Gold @ $1564.90

Stocks which were UP 2% or more included HMC,JCP,
COH,KORS,LULU,PCLN,FFIV,FSLR,SPWR...

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets Mixed

AH Oil & Gold Down

About market, internal picture is mixed @ best.I was not expecting A / D line to be so weak today. In any bull market near highs it is important to be fixated on internals to get a handle on any imminent weakness. Please take this as a negative divergence after such a strong run yesterday. Comfort level needs to be very high @ this juncture. Monitor your stocks TAPE for relative strength or weakness. As long you are making money overall then your strategy is a sound one.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Indices are mixed.....

Indices are mixed with Nasdaq being red & S&P continuing its record highs.

S&P 500 @ 1592.08

Internals are mostly positive

Oil Down 98 cents

Gold UP $5.50

Canadian $ UP 34 tick @ 98.93

VIX  UP 1.78% @ 12.58

In my portfolio :

Added 10% BBRY @ $13.87

Portfolio BAC,BBRY,JCP,HMC

Exposure 82%

Most stocks are UP

@ 2.03 following are red :

BBRY,BAC,AAPL,LEN,TCK,CLF,CF,
CMG,SU,LVS,PANW,BIDU,GOOG,
RVBD,CRUS,ZNGA,MU,BRCM,
C,SNDK,QCOM,NVDA,X,
STLD,GG,EGO,SLW,CCJ,
KOG,FCX.....

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Indices closed UP .88% to 1.83%....NICE !!!!!

Indices had a major breakout today.

S&P 500 @ 1587.73, high today 1589.07

RSI @ 65.62

CMF @ 0.319

Internals were :

UP volume led by 3.44 to 1 in NYSE & 7.08 to 1 in Nasdaq

Advancing stocks led by 3.12 to 1 in NYSE & 3.78 to 1 in Nasdaq

Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 304 in NYSE & 156 in Nasdaq

VIX Down 3.74% @ 12.36, 52 wk low is 11.05 reached on March 14, 2013

Oil @ $94.64

Gold @ $1558.80

Stocks which were UP 2% or more included RDN,EBAY,
COH,AAPL,EXPE,PCLN,FB,CMG,PANW,LNKD,
RVBD,CRUS,GMCR,LRCX,MU,SNDK,CIEN,
FNSR,C,MS,GS,IBN,QIHU,BIDU,QCOM,
MGA,WYNN.......

AH Futures Down

AH Asian Markets UP

AH Oil Down

AH Gold UP

About market, IBD is changing its market outlook tonight to "market in confirmed uptrend". Internals were strong which is a very good sign @ breakout in S&P 500. This TAPE is very difficult with different stocks taking center stage.IF you are in them then you are happy otherwise you are stuck with your pick. Today was the first day in months when technology stocks were strong. IS tech the new leader going forward only time will tell.Based on RSI there is room to for more upside, BUT after 70 it is going to be tough.

BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.

Saleem