TAPE @ open was met with a job shocker both in US & Canada, US had 88 K gain (expectation+200 K) & Canada -54 K (expectation +12 K).
S&P 500 @ 1553.28, low today 1539.50
RSI @ 52.71
CMF @ 0.304
Internals were :
Down volume led by 1.07 to 1 in NYSE & 1.68 to 1 in Nasdaq
Declining stocks led by 1.08 to 1 in NYSE & 1.56 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk high in NYSE 54 but new 52 wk low in Nasdaq by 4
VIX UP .22% @ 13.92
Oil Down @ $92.60
Gold UP @ $1575.90
Canadian $ Down 38 tick @ 98.37
Stocks which ended green included BAC,JCP,
KORS,DNKN,CMG,EXPE,LEN,LNKD,
GG,SLW,AEM,CRUS,C,GS,MS,NVDA,
MCD,STLD,FCX,ECA,FB....
Here is my portfolio weighting as of close :
BBRY 35.98%
BAC 33.99%
JCP 15.13%
RDN 14.90%
Exposure 82%
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
Well it feels like I sure missed a lot even though I was only away for a day and a half. The portfolio was down 4.9% this week versus the S&P only down 1.0%. Major losers included AXLL (-10.0%), CSOD (-8.0%), MRIN (-8.0%), and STLD (-7.7%), with many others down 3-6%. The only stock up on the week was APWC (+3.5%). Here's the portfolio currently:
Positions: RDN MRIN APWC
Cash: ~83%
I did major selling on Thursday after mounting economic evidence indicated a slowdown rather than a pause. Subsequent to my mini-vacation depature, news from FFIV and Friday jobs number really added to this thesis. Given the large declines in some stocks prior to Friday, that day itself seemed to find bargain hunters and short covering. I am carefully evaluating the final portfolio positions for strategic sale.
Given such a dramatic falloff in March numbers, I am much more worried about the earnings season than just a week ago. The majority of my fear stems from what is likely to be company commentary about deterioration in the back half of the quarter coupled with very conservative guidance. This is a bad combination for fresh bullish moves in the market especially after such a great overall first quarter market gain. Many stocks are still well up on the year even with last weeks' pullback.
I am also concerned about the deployment of IT budgets. It seems there is a major shift in where companies want to spend, and this trend from hardware to software might cause general sluggish IT spending especially in an uncertain overall economic environment. FFIV's warning has major implications for many parts of tech, including what was supposed to be nice spending by telecoms in their upgrading of networks. I don't see a reason to be involved in many of my traditional names ahead of earnings because Q2 guidance will likely be conservative.
Another potential market pitfall is a disorderly drop in the yen. I'm not sure the real likelihood of this given the yen tends to see some inflows in times of global economic slowdown, but it's something I'm watching because it could hurt many non-Japanese companies or worse, precipitate greater global tensions among the political side of governments (most global *economic* committees reluctantly agree that this is Japan's best offense against deflation for now).
Calculations by the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) put job loss this year from the both the sequester and non-extension of the payroll tax holiday at over 1.5 million jobs, the sequester part only being felt now. To be honest, I brushed off these figures previously as the market continued its climb, but it really is staggering if you think about it. Additionally, I think the new healthcare laws are really impacting small- and medium-size companies hiring decisions, making them want to wait as long as absolutely possible before hiring or even causing them to replace a "person" job with some kind of software.
In summary, there are many worrisome factors right now from certain stocks' price action to economic slowdown fears to earnings/guidance question marks. I'm not sure the impetus for money managers to go out and buy stocks right now, and they may need to even lighten up more, so I'd rather play from the sidelines for now, waiting to see the developments.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Welcome back !!!
You have touched on many cross-current facing markets in coming weeks & months.
When market goes negative it takes many stocks towards 52 wk low....
Saleem
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