US GDP came in lower than consensus which put downward pressure on TAPE. By close only Dow showed a small gain.
S&P 500 @ 1582.24
RSI @ 57.07
CMF @ 0.180
Internals were :
Down volume led by 1.88 to 1 in NYSE & 1.27 to 1 in Nasdaq
Declining stocks led by 1.45 to 1 in NYSE & 1.66 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 128 in NYSE & 65 in Nasdaq
VIX Down .07% @ 13.61
Oil @ $93.00
Gold @ $1453.60
Canadian $ UP 24 tick @ 98.30
Stocks which closed green included EBAY,JCP,BBRY,
RDN,AAPL,LEN,FB,TZA,MA,JASO,SPWR,
ZNGA,LRCX,SNDK,SINA,MGA,WYNN......
Here is portfolio weighting :
BBRY 35.16%
EBAY 26.84%
HMC 20.63%
JCP 17.37%
Exposure 88%
HMC earnings was a beat & guidance was above expectations. Stock is technically set for a breakout again @ $40.96 for a target of $43.16 as per www.stockconsultant.com.......future looks very bright for HMC !!!!
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
3 comments:
Hey Saleem,
This week definitely started stronger than I expected and the positioning from last week's close had to be unwound throughout the week. By the end, the portfolio saw a small loss of 0.74% versus the S&P's 1.74% gain. The biggest helps were gains in CLF (+11.6%), PFPT (+10.7%), RDN (10.7%), and MCP (+4.1%), while the biggest drags were SRPT (-12.1%), TZA (-7.4% before selling), MRIN (-5.2%), and MODN (-4.5%). Hopefully, I have a better portfolio for next week consisting of the following:
Industrials/Materials: AXLL CLF FCX KOG MCP APWC
Software: PFPT MODN CSOD SPLK RALY MRIN
Financials: RDN
Biotech: SRPT
Cash: ~6%
So far earnings season has been good to the portfolio with CLF and PFPT moving higher afterwards. This week sees RDN and KOG report and I expect good results from both, although RDN could see a "sell on the news" reaction after such a great runup. Another stock I'm considering now is WPRT, and it also announces earnings this week.
A lot of the upward push this week came from weak data in Europe which prompted speculation that the ECB might lower rates at their meeting Thursday morning. I expect the market to trade up ahead of this event, but I'm not sure whether the ECB will really do anything.
In addition to weak European data, many of the US data points showed weakness also. This provided a backdrop where the Fed will likely remain accomodative for the forseeable future, and they should indicate this at their meeting Wednesday.
I have been really surprised at some of the impressive earnings reports in the face of a relatively weak global environment. If Europe or Asia start to improve at all, it will really drive profitability in our very lean US companies. Of course I continue to like the enterprise software companies as the best secular growth story for years to come.
In summary, the move this week surprised me, but I was quick to recognize my incorrect positioning and hopefully averted more underperformance. I get the sense that many areas of the world are finally troughing in terms of economic activity, and the great US companies are ready to capitalize on future stronger growth. This week should see good moves early on month-end markup and anticipation of accomodative Central Banks, with maybe a pullback late as gains are digested.
Looking forward to warmer weather! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Another excellent recap of macro & your portfolio.
We all learn from our mistakes & get better with future summation & selection.
My bet is that ECB will cut.......
I am doing lot of touch up @ home & working on my lawn to improve it....
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
We have landscaping touchup, lawn work, and garden all to do this spring--should be busy!
Stocktrader
Post a Comment