All eyes are fixated on AAPL earning report on Tuesday after close.
AAPL upcoming earning has been microscopically analyzed by many who know everything about this company.
BUT same analysts were trying to outdo each other with their ever increasing earnings & targets, highest back in September was $1111.......stock did go up to $705.07 in September 2012.....which came within 37% of that magical number of $1111 .....
Now we are @ $390.53 down $314.54 per share or 44.61%
Option is predicting that there will be a 7.5% move in either direction in AAPL share.....so AAPL could be either @ $419.20 or $360.80
Many smart buyer are waiting to buy AAPL around $350 area.....
Now the big question is IF AAPL bad earning or lousy guidance will tank this market or start a downtrend just in time for "sell in May & go away" crowd......
S&P 500 is sitting above key support @ 1555.25 & looks extremely vulnerable.....
BUT many pundits are predicting S&P 500 above 1600 by mid year.......
74% of money managers are extremely bullish which is all time high going back 20 years......this is "never a good thing" from contrary point of view........
SO...AAPL or not indices are in borrowed time.......be it this Wednesday or next Wednesday this uptrend looks to be in serious jeopardy......
Knowing this is more important, because it controls temptations to be fully exposed or be too confident in your exposure......
Booking any profit should be the biggest focus going forward.......
Buying strategically for quick trade is the mantra till October....
It is WISE to adjust to seasonality........
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
15 comments:
Hi Saleem, I always like reading your comments to take cue of the market. I am in a dilemma today. I am heavily invested in Apple. Right now from a technically point, I think Apple is oversold and it is looking for rebound. But so many analysts are trashing the stock, that I am uncertain at this point. I like to know your take of the stock.
Appreciate you comment
cong
Hey Saleem,
Interesting post this weekend--I expected more bullishness but instead I think you nailed a lot of the concerns dead on.
To me, AAPL has been independent of the market for a while, so I'm not sure it can make or break it now. In fact, I almost think an up day for AAPL could be negative for the market, is that possible?
The smartphone upgrade cycle seems to be lengthening due to feature saturation which is negative for all the mobile players and supply chain. Additionally, AAPL is unfortunately facing fiercer competition than ever likely causing a multi-year slow decline in margins. How much of these are factored in, I don't know, but I feel like there will be upcoming catalysts for rise versus the dead silence we've heard of late from them.
Stocktrader
Hi Cong,
Thanks for your note & your visit to my BLOG.
As you can see from my range given from Options...downside is limited to $360 area......
There is a strong chance that AAPL may announce a special dividend with earning report...which may soften any downside.
Only other suggestion is that you may want to write covered call on weekly options to recover your loss..it may take several months..but you may be able to narrow your losses.
Hopefully this feedback is of some help to you.
Saleem
Hi Stocktrader,
Last several weeks i have highlighted many reason for seasonal weakness in Indices....
It is really not about AAPL but May to October factors.....
Market is bigger than thousand of AAPL's......
Just my view.....
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
SRPT initiated with $57 PT today by Needham. Now I have to decide if I want back in...
I'm not as comfortable in the story given my only recent look at the sector and company, but many analysts seem to like it and it looks to have great upside with patience.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
You follow these companies closely.
I hope you are well diversified as i am not familiar with most of them.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
I bought the opening print @ 33.90. I'll be more patient this time holding! :)
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Oops on the entry for SRPT! Anyways, also sold half my TTPH @ 9.30 after a huge run. I'm not sure the other half will sell or not there.
Market is definitely interesting this morning.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Booking profit is the right approach.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Given that both pieces of economic data were weaker today, the market is holding up extremely well. I may have to get more positive on the market if this continues.
Finished selling the TTPH @ 9.10 and feel duped by SRPT!
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Bought RDN @ 10.637. It has consolidated for a month and a half in this range and relative strength is good compared to the rest of the financials. As I mentioned previously, but ignored myself, even if the housing market lulls some, their portfolio should not deteriorate, they'd just have a harder time finding new business. It would take a major economic shock to actually break down their book.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Market will give many ways to make money even in a downtrend.
I think market will be sloppy going forward....based on seasonality.
SRPT...do not worry too much..it may come back & move higher......
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Bought some more TZA @ 40.93 as protection. A lot of the small caps I follow/own just have no action even as the market bounced nicely off the lows. It makes me think they are vulnerable to decline.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good analysis....
Good luck with TZA...
Saleem
Thanks Saleem for your respond and advice.
cong
Post a Comment