Indices closed @ best level of the day, this despite CNBC guru's skepticism about this rally or any news.
S&P 500 @ 1633.70
RSI @ 67.36
CMF @ 0.279
Internals were :
UP volume led by 1.94 to 1 in NYSE & 3.86 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 1.73 to 1 in NYSE & 2.07 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 301 in NYSE & 170 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 4.11% @ 12.59
Oil @ $96.04
Gold @ $1436.60
Canadian $ @ 98.89...Canada's job growth was less than expected 12,500 vs 15,000....all full time govt jobs.....
Portfolio weighting :
AUY 36.55%
BBRY 31.38%
EBAY 24.47%
KOG 7.60%
Exposure 102%
Stocks which closed red included AUY,
AAPL POT MOS FB TZA CF SU
LNKD GG SLW AEM Z WYNN
AGU FCX......
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
I'm not sure the Canadian holiday schedule, but we had a great weekend with out-of-town guests for Mother's Day!
As for the portfolio, it was an underperforming week due to a variety of laggards including AXLL (-3.0% before selling, largest position as week started), PFPT (-3.5%, 2nd largest position as week started), MODN (-3.5%), and RALY (-5.1%). Some good gainers included OCN (+8.1% from purchase), SWC (+5.1% including a sell/buyback gain), KOG (+4.7%), FCX (+4.0% from purchase), RDN (+3.9% before sale), and SPLK (+3.7%). Overall the portfolio gained 0.67% versus the S&P's +1.19%. Here's what the portfolio looks like now:
Software: PFPT CSOD MSFT SPLK MODN RALY
Materials/Industrials: FCX KOG SWC WPRT APWC
Financials: PRU OCN BAC
Cash: ~8%
Some of the most crucial trades I made this week were selling AXLL and MRIN as soon as I heard bad news from the earnings calls. AXLL ended up dropping an additional 10% from my sell price and MRIN dropped an incredible 31% further from my sell. It goes to show how important the "homework" is for each stock. Other than earnings, I made some moves adjusting my housing/financial exposure, taking profits in RDN and Z (and AXLL) to buy OCN, PRU, and BAC which may have more upside here. I also swapped MRIN for MSFT and BTU for FCX, thinking in both cases that the new stocks had interesting stories right now that pointed to undervaluation.
We get a lot of April economic data this week although I doubt the market will care much unless they point to accelerating deterioration, which is not expected. Very few earnings reports are scheduled although CSCO will be closely watched for indications of tech spending. I personally believe the appetite for hardware is quickly waning in favor of software solutions, and I think CSCO will talk more about this trend as they endeavor to catch up to the nimbler competition.
We finally saw an uptick in bullishness in the sentiment survey I watch to levels not seen since February. Although a small uptick in bearishness accompanied this, we should be leary of the market getting too far ahead of itself. The S&P's weekly RSI stands at 72.86. The last time we reached here was early March which caused a choppy upward consolidation for 6 weeks before finally breaking out two weeks ago, although in early March the sentiment was much less bullish. Prior to March, the weekly RSI last hit 73 in February 2011 which prompted a wide consolidation range for 6 months before crashing that August. I don't believe we have similar circumstances, but this is worth knowing.
Even if we get a long consolidation, we are now in a stock pickers' market and many individual stocks will do quite well. One thing to watch over the summer is the strong dollar as our economy strengthens, and this could put pressure on some commodities, but could bode well for consumer spending. I don't have any true beta plays ready for purchase right now, but M might be a good start and it reports earnings before the bell Wednesday.
Overall, I'm cognizant of potential pullbacks and am tending to always take profits on large moves and keep cash on hand for sudden bargains. Otherwise, I'm trying to find those stocks ready shift into overdrive with the accomodative world policy and a potential inflection point in growth. Many stocks with high short interest that are seeing improved outlooks can move hard and fast--just look at TSLA, GMCR, and MCP this past week. I hope to find some hidden gems in coming weeks.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Many holidays are common in Canada with US..like Mothers & Fathers day,Christmas,labor day & New Year..rest is different.Canada has more holiday than US every year.
I am glad you are staying with positive return even when some stocks are not working out.
I am super bullish for this week$$$$
Saleem
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