US market defied logic & hysteria which gripped Asian markets.
S&P 500 @ 1636.36, high 1639.25
RSI @ 52.03
CMF -0.010
Internals were :
UP volume led by 6.93 to 1 in NYSE & 4.36 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 5.53 to 1 in NYSE & 3.26 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 260 in NYSE & new highs were leading by 44 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 11.73% @ 16.41
Oil @ $96.69
Gold @ $1377.80
Stocks which were UP 2% or more included BBRY
LULU LNKD NFLX TCK MOS EXPE LEN
HMC CLF LVS BIDU MA JASO SPWR
CRUS GMCR NVDA SBUX X STLD
MGA MS MLNX Z GS....
Here is portfolio weighting :
AUY 36.53%
BBRY 30.81%
EBAY 24.02%
KOG 8.64%
Exposure 102%
AH Futures Down
AH Asian Markets UP
AH Oil Down
AH Gold UP
About market, TAPE reflected some updated Fed thinking that TAPER is not happening now or as fast as rumour. Fed may be signalling that they may TAPER in September from $85 billion to maybe $70 billion & watch how economy reacts. TAPE will remain hostage to Fed thinking which may be in limelight next Wednesday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
PS...i will be out whole day Friday, my next post is on Sunday by 2 PM. Hopefully stocktrader will do a recap of Friday's action, thanks in advance.
Saleem
4 comments:
Hey Saleem,
Bought INVN @ 14.07 at open. I've been watching this one for a while and new business momentum coupled with decreased risk from STM's lawsuit make the stock seem safer. A note today from Piper Jaffray notes they might be gaining AAPL as a client finally.
It is only about a half position, but that's all the cash I had remaining.
Stocktrader
Market Recap for Friday 6/14:
Indices ended DOWN 0.59% to 0.70%
An early attempt at followthrough from yesterday was thwarted when the Japanese yen started strengthening mid-morning. The market then traded in lockstep with the strong yen the rest of the day and ended marginally off the lows as traders were reluctant to take large positions ahead of the weekend.
S&P 500 @ 1626.73
RSI @ 49.04
(Not sure where Saleem gets the CMF number, sorry!)
Internals were:
DOWN volume led by 1.69 to 1 in NYSE & 2.29 to 1 in NASDAQ
Declining stocks led by 1.19 to 1 in NYSE & 2.56 to 1 in NASDAQ
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 53 in NYSE & by 54 in NASDAQ (from Marketwatch.com)
$VIX Up 4.51% @ 17.15
Oil @ $97.89
Gold @ $1391
Stocks which were DOWN 1% or more included DXJ WLT CLF KOG ETN F LULU JPM BAC PRU RDN AAPL CRUS SNDK PANW
Next post by Saleem on Sunday
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
I'm surprised the week turned out as well as it did with the portfolio gaining 0.54% versus the S&P's loss of 1.01%. Big winners included PFPT (+5.3%), TXTR (+6.2% from purchase), INVN (+4.1% from purchase), WLK (+4.0%), and MKTO (+7.6% before selling). The losers were BAC (-2.3%), AMCC (-2.3%), and SWC (-2.1%). Here's the portfolio composition now:
Enterprise Software: PFPT CERN RALY SPLK TXTR MODN MDSO
Financials/Housing: RDN BAC WLH
Materials: WLK SWC STLD
Special Situations: SODA HPQ AMCC TEAR INVN
Cash: ~0%
I did a lot of swapping this week trying to be opportunistic and it worked well. I sold MKTO and DXJ before some large drops (-16.0% and -4.9% afterwards) as well as moving out of F, APWC, and MSFT. The additions of TXTR, MDSO, TEAR, SODA, and INVN all saw gains after purchase of between 1.2-6.2% with only the purchase of HPQ lagging. This recent choppy market is good for trimming and adding as prices fluctuate as well as certain individual stories getting positive attention.
So far in the S&P we have tested and successfully held the 50 DMA, which is also rising and at 1613.54 now. The failure to break down below this moving average after two tries is quite positive. Also in the bulls favor is the massive shift in sentiment among investors. The sentiment indicator I follow has dropped from a bullish 55.2% to only 43.8%, the lowest since last November, from which we subsequently had one of the best 6-month rallies ever. I would say I echo this change in sentiment as before I worked on this writeup, which was surprisingly positive for the portfolio, I really felt like this week was rough and that any gain was fleeting--sometimes it's good to get perspective in just the raw numbers instead of the emotions of the moment.
Adding the technicals and sentiment together, it tells us the tilt of the market is probably higher from here. I don't like that call because it feels wrong, but maybe that's what makes it feel right?
The Fed meets for two days this week to discuss monetary policy. As we are in full summer mode now, this will certainly be the highlight of the week. Bernanke will probably skirt that fine line that tells the market everything is ok for now, but we seriously need to accept the fact that tapering is necessary and coming, especially if the economy strengthens from here. We've had enough weak data recently and inflation is so benign that the Fed will probably not signal much on this front now, but we must be prepared. A calmer Fed tone from this meeting will help bond rates and the $VIX settle down, both helping the market.
An interesting earnings report out of ORCL this week will occur on Thursday. Many people see this as a bellwether for IT software, but I'm not so sure. I think ORCL is losing battles on many fronts from large and small competition like CRM or CSOD.
Despite the worries about housing given the interest rate rise recently, there is such an undersupply of homes right now that I see very little chance the homebuilding activity falters. I'm not sure all homebuilders are good here given the high valuations, but many of the derivative plays are still inexpensive--I like RDN, WLK, TOL, and WLH, but many others will work too. The sustained homebuilding trend should also provide a GDP and jobs tailwind going forward.
Altogether, the necessary step back from the day-to-day market has given me perspective to see the good companies and the positives in the economy and market. I expect to remain ~100% invested with opportunistic moves given price fluctuations.
Happy Father's Day to all! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Thanks for your thorough, detailed & logical summary.
I am happy that your switches are timely & profitable.
We have entered a difficult phase in market.
Saleem
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