Last week was ugly........
IF you believed that indices will keep going UP
IF you believed that Fed will continue QE3 forever
Last week was bad......
IF you thought 10 yr yield will stay around 1.6%
IF you thought China will show growth again
Last week was good......
S&P 500 corrected 6.49%..which is extremely healthy
Gold tumbled to support around $1260 area..should gradually move up whole summer
For coming week.......
Technicians are bracing for a quick dip to 1550 then 1510...all in coming TWO weeks, Tom Fitzpatrick of Citigroup who is Global Head of FX Technicals believes all this....
Again...i do not believe this sequence.......
I personally believe that risk / reward ratio is among the-best in many months.....
World economies are expected to further dip in coming months...which IS a seasonal pattern......
US China India Brazil should RESUME their growth starting in Q4....
This summer there will be many chances to trade this market & position aggressively for Q4...
Lazy summer days should build a nice base in indices........
In summer months, i expect indices to trade in a narrow range.....my guess 1550 to 1650......that is the high & low in that range.......sometimes it could be 1580 to 1620......
Do not expect summer to give you the returns which you have been used to in first six months.....it is rotation & tight range in equities.
Good luck with your strategy & picks !!!!
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
I think we really have to wonder how badly damaged some of the non-US economies are right now. Credit crunches and civil unrest are not recipes for quick growth resumption.
I think the number of possible outcomes for the global economy in 3-6 months is widely diverse in strength and reliability, hence the uncertainty and volatility right now in the market.
I posted my weekly recap/outlook in the comments of your Friday PM post. I'm looking forward to a nice week in the spirit of window dressing! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Summer is a reset time for many economies....China, India, Brazil & Russia have been in a tailspin for a long long time....since 2008....hopefully they all will have a natural resurgence after longest slump..days of 11% 9% GDP growth is in history books for a long time.....
Saleem
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