Indices were weak @ close.
S&P 500 @ 1785.03, low 1783.38
RSI @ 52.87
CMF @ 0.124
Internals were :
Down volume led by 2.11 to 1 in NYSE & 1.45 to 1 in Nasdaq
Declining stocks led by 1.92 to 1 in NYSE & 1.17 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 77 in NYSE & highs 45 in Nasdaq
VIX UP 2.59% @ 15.08, high today 15.38
Oil @ $97.38
Gold @ $1231.90
AH News :
JCP Down 3.62%, RALY Down 11.55%, ULTA Down 17.95%
FNSR UP 6.02%
AH Futures UP
AH Asian Markets Mixed
AH Oil & Gold Down
About market, it is all about jobs report @ 8.30 AM, i am expecting 200K+++ which may trigger selling. Friday may not be the day to "buy the dip". This Taper is signalling a "change in direction" for interest rates, 10 yr is already @ 2.875% which closed near high of the day of 2.88%. As we have seen that good news about economy is bad news for market, this new focus may take longer to digest. We have been down for five straight day's, there is a chance that we may not stop @ six in going down.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
15 comments:
Hey Saleem,
That Piper analyst ended up downgrading RALY this morning, lowering his PT to $26 from $28 citing valuation and slower seat growth. I think he'll end up being wrong, but it will probably take the next earnings report to prove that, leaving the stock sluggish for months unless they get bought out. I'm not selling, but am prepared for poor price action. I was thinking about it more overnight, RALY won't likely eclipse a 30% growth rate, but should grow at 20-25% for a long time, and there's value in that also, especially when they're the best at what they do.
At least I have juggernauts like TXTR doing well. Based on selling AAPL yesterday, TXTR became the #1 stock in the portfolio.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Sold SODA @ 53.502.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Bought MS @ 30.668.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
I sold SODA due to a downgrade based on poor channel checks and a positive note on GMCR about their Keurig Cold being CO2 canister free. Of course the stock is hitting highs...
Bought MS based on expectations of better market and economic activity leading to better earnings.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Sold KORS @ 79.81 based on sluggish sales at many retailers, and despite how much I like KORS's ability to generate growth so far, I think the potential exists for sentiment to be poor until earnings are reported.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Added to MS @ 30.406 and SB @ 7.797.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Added to RALY @ 19.34. Besides the fact that I think the read is wrong by many people (possibly one of those traders upsidedown move like what happened in TXTR post-earnings), it becomes a very attractive takeover target at these levels.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good moves in selling SODA & KORS...
Good luck with RALY,SB & MS...
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
I had a tiny bit more buying power, so just bought a few more shares of SB @ 7.70. Even based on the poor year in bulk shippers, SB is nicely profitable, and lines up for large outperformance should the recent moves up in the $BDI persist or extend.
Stocktradert
Hi Stocktrader,
As you may have noticed that SB
Is in my stock to buy list.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Yes. I know you like the profitable ones :).
Also, just found this on RALY which pretty well matches my own perspectives:
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Rally+Software+%28RALY%29+Estimates%2C+PT+Lower+at+Needham+%26+Company+Post+Q3/8954546.html?si_client=st
Note that his FY15 estimate is still under the company's preliminary conservative guidance, so I think there's room for positive catalysts going forward.
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
I also think TRLA is interesting here from an earnings and takeover perspective, but it has the challenges of year-end selling for tax reasons or portfolio dressing. It's definitely one I'm watching though.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
I do not understand who is negative on RALY & why?
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
The Piper (first post) and Needham analysts are the only two commentaries I've seen. I think the large decline is a product of this note earlier this week:
Rally Software shares should be bought ahead of earnings, says JMP Securities
JMP Securities' checks suggest that Rally continues to take share from its competitors. The firm notes that the stock has dropped 25% since September 17, and it keeps a $32 price target on the shares. :theflyonthewall.com
Incorrect trader positioning has left us with a washout day of sorts, similar to what happened with TXTR when it reported--runup into earnings and exacerbated selloff when the revenue beat and guides were not hugely positive. The story is intact based on what I read and heard from the company, so, besides year-end issues, I see the stock as nicely undervalued right now. RALY did everything right, beat this quarter, guided next quarter higher, and guided next year higher. I will note that RALY has consistently guided conservatively also, so I think a future miss is highly improbable unless business conditions dramatically change intra-quarter, of which we are over a month in already.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Thanks for your detailed reply about RALY....Incredible volume ...it has recovered $1.30 from low already...
Saleem
Post a Comment