Indices closed mixed in anticipation of upcoming Fed decision on Taper.
S&P 500 @ 1775.32, low 1772.45
RSI @ 45.85
CMF @ -0.083
Internals were :
UP volume led by 1.08 to 1 in NYSE & 1.21 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 1.31 to 1 in NYSE & 1.48 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 57 in NYSE & highs leading by 20 in Nasdaq
VIX UP 1.31% @ 15.76
Oil @ $96.60
Gold @ $1234.60
Canadian $ @ 94.47
Stocks which closed green included JKS QIHU AUY
MGA MU EXPE FB TSLA AMZN MS SNDK
TWTR YUM LVS MA V GMCR CIEN X
PANW MMCD AEM SPWR CSOD
BBRY TRLA Z WYNN AGU.....
Here is my portfolio weighting :
SINA 32.58%
JKS 30.85%
QIHU 14.42%
RALY 12.85%
AUY 9.30%
Exposure 130%
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
It turned out to be a great week with the portfolio gaining 2.77% versus the S&P's -1.65%.
Notable Winners: AAL (+16.3%), SB (+15.8%), TRLA (+17.7% from purchase), TXTR (+6.5%), BALT (+4.9% trade)
Notable Losers: RALY (-12.5%), CLDX (-6.8% upon sale), OMED (-3.6% upon sale)
YTD Info:
Portfolio: +61.85%
S&P 500: +24.48%
The week started slowly with the market gaining on Friday jobs followthrough but many of my beta stocks underperformed. This effect became more pronounced on Tuesday as more investors started to worry about taper fears ahead of the Fed decision. I had an uneasy feeling and ended up selling ~50% of my portfolio by close that day.
On Wednesday the market saw some of its worst action in months. The selling was vicious enough that day that I actually started buying a few stocks again. On Thursday as the market struggled but was no longer freefalling, I added more names to bring my allocation back to 100%. Friday was my day to take some profits in the dry bulkers that had done well and position for a potential non-taper due to late-week economic data in jobs and inflation. Here's how the portfolio stands:
Heighest Weightings (12.9-11.7%): TXTR AAL MS
Middle Weightings (9.2-8.6%): RALY MHK
Lowest Weightings (6.2-4.4%): WUBA CLDX KOG SB FCX TRLA
Negligible (1.8%): GRPN
Cash: 10.2%
Positions Closed: CELG CSOD EXPE OMED DRYS
New Positions: WUBA GRPN KOG MHK TRLA FCX
Sell/Buyback: CLDX TXTR
Buy/Sell: BALT
Size Reduction: SB
My gut served me well in both market timing and stock selection this week. Selling half the portfolio a day before a large selloff was helpful in both saving money as the market fell, but also allowed me to buy good stocks at nice prices. Also, stock selection really helped propel the portfolio with the four largest positions as of Friday morning (TXTR AAL MS SB) all up on the week, most nicely so, and the speculative TRLA pickup performing well immediately.
This week's focus is almost certainly the Fed in what would have otherwise been quieting down ahead of the holidays. Speculation is rampant on both sides about taper or no taper. Although I think the underlying economy is slowly strengthening, there's probably enough question marks in jobs/spending data along with very benign inflation in order to keep the Fed at status quo this meeting. This assumes the Senate gets the budget agreement passed by Fed decision time. In the event they haven't, the Fed almost certainly remains on hold.
Given the uncertainty leading up to the Fed, it's definitely possible we start the week sluggishly as new money is reluctant to buy prior to the big event just days ahead. This trading would make the market poised to rebound shortly after the Fed decision is digested. A taper probably means a large initial selloff and then we bounce from the lows nicely. A non-taper likely means a large rally. One thing to watch however, is for a fade on subsequent days as the market looks toward the next Fed meeting and the next taper decision.
My goal of last week to find the "magical stocks" worked surprisingly well. Other than RALY (which I'm stuck in because it's much too cheap despite the price action), the biggest weighted stocks all did well, and some speculative stocks provided performance boosts also. Currently, I have a good mix of recent outperformers and underperformers with both groups having chances to move higher from here. I'm mostly pleased with the portfolio composition right now, and only see minor changes necessary at this moment (although there's definitely a possibility that Fed events or major stock moves could shift ideas).
Good luck to all as the year winds down! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Your portfolio is doing better & better & 2013 look like a "huge winner".....
Saleem
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