Jobs report came in above consensus @ 203 K, but good news about economy was not bad news for stock market, a change from last proclaimed theory....that is what wall street is all about...similar news can have different reaction in 24 hours.
S&P 500 @ 1805.09, high 1806.04
RSI @ 61.56
CMF @ 0.226
Internals were :
UP volume led by 2.97 to 1 in NYSE & 1.97 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 2.57 to 1 in NYSE & 2.04 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 45 in NYSE & 134 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 8.55% @ 13.79
Oil @ $97.65
Gold @ $1229.00
Canadian $ @ 93.37
Stocks which closed green included SLW GG BIDU MU
AMZN LUV MS PCLN GOOG GMCR LRCX C
SNDK BRCM JDSU LEN DNKN CMG LVS
EBAY LNKD LVS WYNN FFIV MA M
PANW MCD CSOD MGA Z GS
MLNX.....
Here is my portfolio weighting :
SINA 33.79%
JKS 31.33%
QIHU 15.50%
ARUN 9.82%
AUY 9.56%
Exposure 125%
Next post by 2 PM Sunday
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
3 comments:
Hey Saleem,
Despite losing 2.69% this week, in the last two weeks I'm only down 0.28% versus the S&P's +0.02% during that time.
The portfolio has changed a lot since I left for the vacations, with TXTR, AAPL, and AKS being big winners (AAPL and AKS sold this week), and RALY eating up much of the overall gains with the huge drop on Friday along with some losses in OMED and SODA. Here's the current portfolio as I get back into full swing:
Highest Weightings (12.5-10.8%): TXTR MS LCC RALY
Middle Weightings (9.9-9.1%): CSOD SB CELG CLDX
Lowest Weightings (7.2,4.9,3.8%): EXPE DRYS OMED
Many of the my changes made this week involved themes. I sold all my retail including KORS, RL, SODA, and even AAPL (although for non-retail reasons). The environment around retail has been challenging so far this holiday season, and I felt I could find better opportunities in other sectors.
The major additions were biotech (CELG, CLDX, OMED) and dry bulk shippers (SB, DRYS). Biotech has been a strong performer this year and I thought this would continue into year end. The dry bulk shippers are attractive based on rising $BDI rates and nicely based charts for a move higher. I also sold my material, AKS, and added a financial, MS, in order to better prepare for higher interest rates.
It is always tricky to game the year-end action as volumes tend to drop and moves get muted, unless you pick exactly the right stocks, in which case you see huge moves. I've tried to select stocks that I think could make aggressive moves into year end and really charge the portfolio.
Besides some potential huge winners into year end, I think subtle positioning for next year's taper will come into play. The economic environment looks to be one of better growth with interest rates moving slowly higher. Most intuitively this favors the financials, and should help most growth sectors, but action could be choppy as the market alternates between cheering the good economic news and fretting over the rising interest rates. It is important to know how your individual stocks could be affected.
The sentiment indicators are bothersome with Investor's Intelligence showing very extreme levels of high bullishness and low bearishness. This is something to watch carefully as a true negative catalyst could unwind many market gains in a blink. Barring that, I think the market can drift into year-end, but I worry about some January problems when everyone's year gets reset and actually selling stocks proves less troublesome for portfolio managers.
Altogther, I'm probably working my portfolio too hard right now. It's in my nature to strive for returns, but stumbles can hurt the portfolio at a time when things should be simpler. I'm hoping to find a group of stocks that I can ride into year end--I've almost finished assembling them but need some fine tuning still.
On the hunt for year-end winners! :)
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Forgot the YTD info:
Portfolio: 57.49%
S&P 500: 26.57%
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Nice recap of your rationale for changes.....
You have done extremely well for 2013 which accounts for your hardwork, analysis & perfect timing.
Saleem
Post a Comment