Funny thing happened on the way to Jobs report, Jobs report was stronger than expected & every pundit & blogger was proven wrong in terms of reaction to stronger jobs report.......guess what....it was taken as good news for the market........
S&P 500 is eight points away from establishing a new all time high, which could come when we open on Monday.
On thing we all have to learn is not to believe in our own analysis all the time, sometimes the best of us are given a surprise by the TAPE.
Friday's TAPE is all the more confusing IF we look @ investors sentiment from Wednesday which is giving a read of Bulls @ 57.1% & bears @ 14.3%....most optimistic reading in decade or more, this normally foretells a major pullback of 10% or more ?
BUT December has its own history of extremely bullish TAPE, it will be interesting to see how this cross-current plays out.
As we all have learned on Friday, not to predict where market will go, it IS more important to follow the strength of certain stocks which IS showing renewed strength.
As we all have learned the hard way not to bet on laggards, it is important not to repeat this mistake going into December or into 2014.
New 52 wk high list is a great place to hunt for ideas......
Technicians are a firm believer in trends, strength begets strength & weakness to be ignored.
When stocks are breaking out they generally have multi-year uptrend with many digestive phase. AMZN is a great example of "disbelief & impossibility" based on traditional PE analysis.
IF i can highlight one thing from my own experience of 2013 strategy, that i should have invested in strong stocks.
As 2013 is ending in less than 3 weeks, it IS important to position for 2014.
Good luck with your OWN strategy & a prosperous ending to 2013.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
4 comments:
Hey Saleem,
I think the market would have rallied no matter what on Friday based on everyone's fears and the multi-day decline going into the number. I'm not sure we can read much into it specifically other than better economic news of late.
Like you, I reflected a lot on my portfolio this weekend, especially given RALY's decline. It seems so easy just to buy stocks above their moving averages, yet we always put too much thinking into it and find some reason not to buy those stocks, and then they go higher still. Then there is the opposite where stocks in obvious decline have the allure of "cheap" which often doesn't work. I definitely have some work to do myself in recognizing those signs, and hope I just get it right more often than wrong...
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
It is good to go back to drawing board & learn from our own mistakes.
Because of our detailed portfolio outlay for everyone to see where we are going with our ideas & how often we stumbled, gives us a collective learning.
I am trying very hard to contain my tendency to go with underdog ....that has hurt me badly in 2013.
We all live & LEARN.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
My portfolio is crazy today--6 of my 11 stocks are either up or down 3%+.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
I am batting 1/5 today.....
Saleem
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