TAPE was under severe selling pressure as Dow & S&P 500 went way below 50 DMA. Reason for this sharp selling was credited to trouble in emerging market & with their currencies namely India, Turkey, Argentina, Brazil & South Africa.
S&P 500 @ 1790.29...Dow ,Nasdaq & S&P 500 closed @ absolute low of the day....a rarity...
RSI @ 36.82
CMF @ 0.071
Internals were :
Down volume led by 11.29 to 1 in NYSE & 5.16 to 1 in Nasdaq
Declining stocks led by 6.40 to 1 in NYSE & 5.88 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk lows were leading by 49 in NYSE but highs were leading by 7 in Nasdaq
VIX UP 31.74% @ 18.14
Oil @ $96.64
Gold @ $1264.30
Canadian $ @ 89.38
Stocks which closed green included LULU OTEX LNKD SBUX AEM....
Here is my portfolio weighting :
JKS 38.25%
AUY 21.95%
MU 21.82%
KOG 17.98%
Exposure 138%
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
In a week that caught many people flat-footed, the portfolio lost 3.54% versus the S&P's -2.63%.
Only Winners: RALY (+2.7%), AAL (+1.3%), AAPL (+1.0%), SWKS (+0.8%), CSOD (+0.3%)
Notable Losers: JKS (-16.1%), QUNR (-13.1%), YELP (-7.7%), SPLK (-5.4% from purchase)
YTD Info:
Portfolio: -3.62%
S&P 500: -3.14%
This week I made moves mostly to rid myself of commodity exposure and pick up stocks with company or industry tailwinds. Here's the look of the portfolio now:
Highest Weightings (12.1-10.3%): AAPL AAL SWKS FDX
Middle Weighting (7.8%): CSOD
Lowest Weightings (6.7-5.1%): RALY NUAN YELP CRUS SPLK CLDX JKS QUNR
Cash: ~0%
Closed Positions: SB FCX X
New Positions: NUAN SPLK
Add-ons: AAL SWKS CRUS
Although many people have been expecting a pullback for a while now, the voracity and timing of this one caught many people by surprise. A weak flash PMI number out of China coupled with some late week currency problems started a snowball effect. In the span of just two days we dropped almost 3% on the S&P 500 and nearly 500 Dow points. The question is what happens next?
The first thing to realize is that we dropped too fast, likely exacerbated by a Friday weekend-fear trade and lack of liquidity. My expectation is that barring new concerns surfacing, we should rebound on Monday as investors pick up bargains created in their favorite stocks.
Beyond this, the outlook is more uncertain, but I believe individual stock stories can still work. Certain areas of technology are seeing increased spending for the first time in a while, while broader trends of cloud, mobile, and social are still in growth modes. Some areas of energy are coming back, while biotech continues to innovate. Also, many companies are continuing to add earnings power through cost-cutting and other initiatives, a feature that will likely persist for many years. So, although materials, industrials, and financials may be experiencing some pain due to cyclical worries, other trends are still alive to provide some balance to the market.
This week sees many more earnings reports. Portfolio names include AAPL (Mon PM), AAL (Tue AM), and CRUS (Tue PM). Some names I watch include X (Mon PM), F (Tue AM), YHOO (Tue PM), FB (Wed PM), LRCX (Wed PM), BTU (Thu AM), UPS (Thu AM), GOOG (Thu PM), and AMZN (Thu PM). I am excited to hear so many results and outlooks from interesting companies. The market's reaction to these is anyone's guess though.
The Fed's two-day meeting this week is the last under Bernanke's tenure. There is definitely more debate possible about tapering, but it is likely the Fed continues on its path. The risk the policymakers could see is inflation well below target. Specific mention of this might bring confidence to investors as they realize the Fed is vigilant in creating an economic backdrop conducive for growth.
Overall, I expect a somewhat positive week. Despite macro fears, I feel the individual strengths of companies will shine through on earnings, and the Fed will show investors they are still supportive. My biggest fear is that I don't have much fear right now--I like my companies and portfolio. Does that mean there's still too much complacency around? Time will tell...
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
You are positive & i am negative for Monday.....one of us will be 100% correct....
Hopefully market may find support this week.......
Saleem
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