Futures were looking good in pre market but @ 830 jobs number went way below the lowest number on the street, 74 K is all she wrote. I am sure there is a "higher revision coming next month".....S&P 500 & Nasdaq had the second highest close after 8 trading days ago.
S&P 500 @ 1842.37, high 1843.15, highest close 1849.44 ( 8 trading days ago)
RSI @ 64.03
CMF @ 0.227
Internals were :
UP volume led by 2.12 to 1 in NYSE & 1.61 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 2.56 to 1 in NYSE & 1.30 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 198 in NYSE & 155 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 5.82% @ 12.14
Oil @ $92.72
Gold @ $1246.90...GLD ready to take out 50 DMA only 30 cents remaining...we all know what happens when 50 DMA is taken out....a breakout towards 200 DMA.....last time GLD was above 50 DMA it was back in October 2013......FWIW
Canadian $ @ 90.83... a 4 year low against US$.......you have to pay only US 90.83 cents to get 1 Canadian $......
Stocks which were UP included JKS KOG SINA AUY
LULU MU FB LNKD TRIP MGA SLW EGO GG
AEM BIDU KORS TSL CSIQ LEN SU ARUN
X RVBD LRCX SPLK CSOD TRLA Z AGU
WYNN YELP......
Here is my weighting :
JKS 38.65%
SINA 28,47%
AUY 17.70%
KOG 15.18%
Exposure 138%
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
I don't have my usual complete stats based on the hard drive failure this week, but here's what I do have:
YTD Info:
Portfolio: -0.66%
S&P 500: -0.32%
Notable Winners: CLDX (+5.6% from purchase), RALY (+2.7% from purchase)
Notable Loser: QUNR (-7.9% from purchase)
Based on my outlook from last weekend, I sold all my stocks on Monday. This worked for some of my stocks but not for others. It definitely cost me potential gains in AAL which closed out the week nicely, and SB/BALY which rallied big intraweek before closing at lows on Friday. As the markets continued to develop through the week, I felt a change in tone and the technicals did not confirm a breakdown despite many intraday selloffs. This prompted me to buy back my favorite names in what seems to be a stock-specific-based rally. Here's how the portfolio looks now:
Major Weightings (11.5-10.6%): AAPL FCX FDX
Minor Weightings (7.6-4.7%): CSOD CLDX RALY QUNR JKS SODA
Cash: ~31%
It is important to look at the composition of this week's moves. Monday was the worst day, probably a product of many investors/traders reading the situation like I did last weekend with the extremely poor technical setup. Tuesday was a rebound but with a late-day selloff as many institutions continued booking yearly gains and also fear ahead of the Fed. The tone changed on Wednesday with intraday selloffs, but rebounds into close. It was this action, especially on Friday's poor jobs number, that makes it clear the market has rested enough and is ready to move higher. This might seem like a flip-flop from last weekend which seemed so dire in prediction, but the subsequent market action dictated a chance in stance to more bullish.
The real market leaders right now are stocks with "stories". Some of the biggest gainers this week were social and cloud, Chinese internet and solar, and biotech plays where high growth is expected in the coming year, like YELP (+21.5%), WUBA (+13.3%), and PCYC (+24.8%) It is good for a market to be led by growth leaders, and the exaggerated moves in some names, while somewhat disturbing, shows the real appetite for exposure to these plays.
The economic data is somewhat mixed and even down. A blast of cold weather in December and early January is keeping economic activity subdued including retail sales and possibly construction. Although we may see weak numbers in coming weeks, the market may be able to look past these given the short-term nature of them. The way the market acted on Friday is a good example.
The Fed on Wednesday showed that they are really ready to continue the tapering moves, but the market was able to take this in stride. It will be interesting to see the effect of the jobs number from Friday on the Fed decision late this month, and with any further weak data, might cause the Fed to pause? I'm not sure, but it's something to watch for, and certainly might get reflected somewhat in the market. That would help the commodities the most I'd imagine.
China is displaying more moderation signs and is something to watch in the future. Some stocks like coal and steel are already reflecting this, and it will be interesting to hear the commentary from some multinational industrial companies during earnings season. Despite the weakness in some commodity stocks related to China, the internets and solars continue to do quite well.
Altogether, I have changed my stance to bullish, but selective in the companies based on the chances for improved earnings and/or outlooks during this earnings season. I have plenty of cash to deploy in names I feel could move the portfolio further, and will be watchful as this week really starts us off with 2014 guidance.
Good luck to all this earnings season! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good recap of all your moves & what you have observed.
Keeping an open mind is the key to adjusting to current reality.
Fighting the TAPE never helps unless one takes a very long term view.
Saleem
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