Option expiry & weak earnings report took Nasdaq down. Dow was in green.
S&P 500 @ 1838.70, low 1835.23, high 1846.04
RSI @ 56.49
CMF @ 0.227
Internals were :
Down volume led by 2.11 to 1 in NYSE & 1.80 to 1 in Nasdaq
Declining stocks led by 1.34 to 1 in NYSE & 1.39 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 155 in NYSE & 145 in Nasdaq
VIX Down .72% @ 12.44
Oil @ $94.37
Gold @ $1251.90
Canadian $ @ 90.39
Stocks which closed green included JKS AUY
OTEX TWTR BBRY MGA M EXPE MS
AMZN KORS ARUN RVBD SNDK
LVS V SPLK EGO SLW AEM
CSOD WYNN GS YELP
MLNX....
In my portfolio :
Sold SINA $74.89
Bought MU $22.46
Here is my weighting :
JKS 42.45%
AUY 20.54%
MU 19.84%
KOG 17.17%
Exposure 138%
Next post by 2 PM on Sunday
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
3 comments:
Hey Saleem,
A volatile week ended nearly flat with the portfolio gaining 0.59% versus the S&P's -0.20%.
Notable Winners: CLDX (+16.1%), SB (+8.1% from purchase), YELP (+7.1% from purchase)
Notable Losers: SODA (-21.9% upon sale), X (-4.4% from purchase), CELG (-3.2% buy/sell)
YTD Info:
Portfolio: -0.08%
S&P 500: -0.52%
It helped to start the week with 31% cash because Monday was a big down day. I spent Monday and Tuesday deploying the majority of the cash, and also dealing with the fallout from SODA's preannouncement. The rest of the week I was exchanging old ideas for new ones. Here's the composition of the portfolio now:
Largest Weightings (11.6-10.4%): AAPL FDX
Middle Weightings (7.9-7.2%): AAL CSOD FCX SWKS
Smallest Weightings (6.7-4.9%): SB YELP RALY JKS X CLDX QUNR CRUS
Closed Positions: SODA
New Positions: SB YELP CRUS AAL X SWKS
Add-ons: CLDX(Mon) JKS
Trims: CLDX(Thu) FCX
Buy/Sell Intraweek: CELG LRCX
The market is strangely sluggish and volatile at the same time. We are lacking any real catalyst for the general market, yet we are squarely in the midst of earnings season and therefore have huge catalysts for individual stocks. I think this theme will dominate again next week with one of the biggest chunks of earnings ahead. The only portfolio name reporting this week is FCX on Wed morning. I expect a great Q4, but guidance is worrisome given Indonesian's new export tax.
The economic data is mixed and often confusing. We see so many retailers warning on earnings, yet retail sales beat expectations. We see good jobs numbers from ADP and weekly claims, yet the NFP number was very weak. Some of the factory data comes in nicely, some comes in poorly. The service sector that has been a huge strength throughout this slow recovery suddenly posted one of its weakest numbers in a long time for December. I can't really remember a time when the economic picture was so muddled. Although almost everyone agrees that we are in an upward path, the trajectory of that ramp is up for debate. The discussion at the Fed meeting later this month should be interesting, but most people still expect another taper announcement.
A wildcard in the world economy is once again China. After seeing a nice second half to 2013, some indicators are showing slowing again as a materials' restocking phase nears the end. Worries about the shadow banking system and reforms there are also contributing to strange spikes in Shibor almost every week. A recent effort by the government to reallow IPOs after a long hiatus, which had been trying to support existing markets, was again put on hold as fears resurfaced about that huge pipeline of deals stifling markets. Overbuilding in housing continues to force the government to impose restrictions, although they are careful not to push too hard. I'm not sure any of these really amount to anything now, but it is important to understand where risks to the world economy exist. China's big group of economic data comes out Sunday night (GDP, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment) and all is expected fine.
A positive factor in the recent flat market is the working off of the overbought and overbullish sentiment. The S&P 500 RSI stands at 56.49, indicating relatively neutral conditions. The Investors Intelligence survey is finally coming off multi-year bullish highs with some moderation this week, and the AAII survey has come all the way back to nearly neutral. Although this does not necessarily mean we move up again, it does provide a better balance such that good news in markets or individual stocks can have a positive impact.
I am worrying less about the overall market and focusing more on individual stocks right now. I look forward to the earnings season that helps shape the portfolio for the next three months!
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
We are hosting a birthday party tomorrow so I figured I'd do this a day early :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
You are beating S&P 500 handily again which is a great start for 2014.
Yes China has turned lower in economic growth which is a problem.
Enjoy birthday function with family & friends.
Saleem
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