RUT UP 3.50%
Dow UP 7.52%
S&P 500 UP 11.4%
Nasdaq UP 13.40%
Bonds UP 23%
Most genius on Wall Street missed Bond rally......
Many retail were stuck in Russell 2000 which produced measly 3.50%
Oil Down 46%
Silver Down 19%
Gold Down 1.51%
US$ gained 10.73% against Canadian $
US$ gained 11.69% against Euro
NOW...the question is what may happens in 2015...
US will dominate positive news in 2015, with strong employment gains and GDP gain above expectations.....
Europe still struggling and no sign of growth even in Germany.
China is hitting deceleration and may not stop until 7% GDP downtrend
India is poised to resume above 5% GDP growth and may exceed expectations due to Oil windfall.
Canada is in serious trouble with Oil & commodities taking it on the chin, Alberta, Saskatchewan may be severely affected with lower employment & deficits, thus continued weakness in Canadian currency.
Oil is headed lower to $40 area and may hit $37 as major support.
Interest rates in US is expected to go up in 2nd half of the year.
US$ will continue to move higher despite effort by China, Russia, Iran & Middle East to trade in non US$...
US Markets had 6 year of consecutive gains, 2015 may be in less than 5% gain for the year as interest rate worry will keep this uptrend in check.
SO...how to invest or trade.....First know that it is going to be the first tough year to make money in 7 years, so expectations needs to be gain of 3% area........
Buy & Hold what is in uptrend or risk losing money in 2015...
With Oil in continued slump to $40 area, many oil dependent economies will slow down big time, this includes Middle East, Canada, Russia that will reduce demand for many US based product & services......
SO...do not celebrate cheap oil, it is coming with serious implication for worldwide economies, i do not expect Oil to resume its uptrend until 2016......
I have highlighted serious issues for many world economies including US, approach investing & trading with extreme caution & with great conviction. IF you do not know a stock inside out, do not buy and reduce exposure for 2015, its not business as usual.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
4 comments:
Hey Saleem,
I managed to eek out a small gain of +0.20% last week thanks to AAL, some good PANW trading, and my extremely small, speculative stock (which rose 35%, boosting the overall portfolio by ~0.15%). The full year ended with a +6.81%, right in the middle of the S&P's and Russell 2000's gain. I'll take it!
I have a feeling this year could be huge, with the Fed being forced to remain on hold due to sluggish world growth and low inflation, but then world growth stabilizing/turning in the second half as easy monetary policy takes hold.
I like the freedom that the beginning of the year brings--you can try out some beaten down stocks if you think they have potential in 2015 without the heaviness of year-end tax selling and portfolio manager avoidance.
I go into 2015 fully invested and optimistic for markets! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
January to September very challenging..October to March 2016 super strong.
Saleem
Hi Stocktrader,
Added 13 percent EGO @ $ 6.45..
Gold may shine in 2015.
Saleem
Hey Saleem,
Good luck with more EGO. You might be right about gold. I may consider a position.
Stocktrader
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