Many are looking at January indicator with great concern, here is the result of first 5 days of January trading in S&P 500 which is the biggest indicator of 500 stocks, the result is :
S&P 500 close Dec 31st, 2014................2058.90
S&P 500 close January 8th, 2015............2062.14
Net gain in 5 trading days of January..........+3.24 points
So far so good for first 5 trading days of January
BUT..now we have to watch, how we end the month of January.......as they say.... as goes January, so goes the year....
2015 will be a tough year as was evident @ the start......first 5 days barely UP & first 6 days we are down as we closed @ 2044.81 down 14.09 points......
BUT 2015 will be a stock pickers dream, buy emerging story and stick with it, gains could be substantial.
Major indices including Russell will zig zag until September, then we move UP sharply from October to March 2016.....which used to be seasonal pattern of strength.....NOT this year......
2015 will dictate a diversified portfolio in many sectors as they will rotate and take turns until September......
Oil may find stability around September also.....
Fed may have increased interest rates by .25% by September also...
Europe may turn UP by September also.....
India & China may see strong GDP growth by September also.....
Until September Gold may rule, with all the uncertainties in the world.
SO.....a crystal ball is looking @ many things in 2015, either you follow some , all or none is based on what makes you comfortable.
We all may need luck in 2015, as dart throwing approach may have come to an end......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
It is a bit of a confusing time right now. I feel lucky only losing 0.26% last week versus the S&P's -0.65% and the small caps even worse. Good gainers were PANW NXPI TWTR, but I've sold all those now. Big losers were AKS AAL ETN WLK, keeping only AAL.
Gold was my big purchase this week comprising 29.5% of my portfolio now. The rest is cash(18%), YELP(15%), SPLK(11%), AAL(10%), RUTH(9%), KSS(8%), AEMD(0.5%).
My current thesis is that deflation fears will intensify, upping the chances the Fed will remain on hold, and bringing gold to the forefront as all central banks go easy. I am uncomfortable shifting away from my usual 100% invested in individual stories, but the market is trying to tell us something with crashing commodities and extremely low 10-yr yields. We can't be complacent right now.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Good strategy and it is a wise one.
Saleem
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