2015 TAPE has been extremely weak so far.
Friday close gives us hope for a follow through rally, but that rally may not last long....
Oil is in driver seat now, if its higher we rally, if lower we go down in a hurry......
Russell 2000 is looking extremely weak struggling with 200 DMA and may lead us lower, so keep an eye on RUT as it may be the leading indicator after oil..
SO..what is wrong with this market ?
It is all about Oil as a leading indicator for sluggish world economic picture as it stands now, many layoff are happening in Canada and in Texas, Texas is extremely vulnerable as is Alberta in Canada.
Volatility has spiked up in many sectors, be it US$, Swiss Franc or Euro.....something is simmering in the background.....
The only beneficiary is Gold, it is becoming a safe haven bet for all the craziness which is happening around the world.
There are many blowups in currency trading FXCM is not the only one, many hedge funds are taking on the chin with Stocks, Currency and with their exposure to many risky bets.
SO....beside Gold, look for stocks which are showing relative strength in this crazy TAPE, some of them are NXPI, LULU,PANW to name a few
Another strategy could be to buy beaten down stocks with 30 RSI, this group is swelling in ranks on a daily basis MU, AKS, GPRO ......
SO..its not clear cut in terms of direction or price movement, it has become a two day TAPE both in UP move or Down move.....
Earnings may not be any help as they are all guiding down which may escalate downtrend......
Caution is the buzzword for 2015 US market.......
Do not rely on your own interpretation of this TAPE, follow the money is the best way to minimize losses or making some headway this year.
Good luck with a shortened week in US, world markets are open including Canada on Monday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
3 comments:
Hey Saleem,
Another interesting week with the portfolio -1.06% versus the S&P -1.24% and $RUT -0.76%. Big gainers were RUTH and GLD. Big losers were YELP and AAL. Losing trades of PFPT and FB didn't help either.
I am still holding the large gold position (31%), but have cash of 17% to deploy. The stock positions remain unchanged from last week's YELP SPLK RUTH AAL KSS AEMD.
I feel the need to get more invested as it seems the selling momentum has faded. Unfortunately, when I look around at my choices, I'm not sure where to go--it seems you can find flaws in almost every company's earnings potential...
Stocktrader
Hey Saleem,
Trimmed YELP @ 51.31 due to poor a poor chart. It is back down to equal weight with other positions in the portfolio.
The charts of YElP and SPLK both look pretty terrible. I'm considering selling the entirety of them both to try and catch a buyback lower.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Chart of many popular stocks are weak, tough to show conviction.
Good luck with your Rethink.
Saleem
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