SO...we have a new President Elect, his focus was well known to the market for months.
Ironically, President elect focus was very similar in infrastructure spending with second place finisher....
Win or lose it was infrastructure spending as core focus of last election....
Rest of the focus of President elect will be subject to major scrutiny by his own team and all the elected officials......
Trade issues will be tackled with great care and sensitivity, any adjustment to tariffs in terms of duties will be of workable arrangement, with consultations with China, Mexico and Canada......
Trade agreement may take about a year in terms of implementation, so nothing unilateral can happen in immediate future.
Issues with EU may not come into play @ all......a low priority in scope of issue.
On the positive side, election is over.....
- We have one party majority in house, senate and governorship......
- SO..whatever President proposes will get smooth approval.....
- No more Government shut down or threat of it......
- This could be a very positive environment for GDP & Jobs growth......
- Prosperity means higher disposable income ......
- All this bodes well for Stock market and indices.......
Beside infrastructure related stocks like steels, copper, cement & construction, there will be other related beneficiaries like trucks & Railroads.
Technology will also benefit with repatriation of billions from overseas @ low rates or even free repatriation, AAPL is a huge beneficiary plus GOOG, IBM, HPQ to name a few....
YES...new reality is different, but everyone will adjust to this reality.
SO...expect continued series of all time highs in all indices, as honeymoon with new President will continue till end of March.......
Markets have been extremely volatile with polls and its implications, but now it is going to overdo in celebration of new focus.
Change is good, adjusting to it takes time.
SO...rethink portfolio in terms of new President and his ability, to make many adjustments to bring everyone along.
I remain positive!
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
12 comments:
Hi Saleem,
The weekly numbers last week were shocking. The portfolio was +15.0% on the week, handily beating the averages (even the +10.2% Russell 2000). The biggest contributor was the +32.5% of the TNA, which is the portfolio's largest position. Other gainers were CNAT (+32.3%), AKS (+31.8%), TRIL (+14.3%), ZYNE (+10.9%), MET (+9.1% from purchase).
Portfolio: TNA(27%) MET(11%) TRIL(11%) ZYNE(10%) QRVO(10%) NEFF(9%) SPLK(7%) AKS(6%) SWN(5%) CNAT(3%), cash 0.0% (adds to 99% due to cumulative rounding errors)
I know I'll have to start trimming the TNA at some point due to the intrinsic decay within the vehicle, but as I expressed at the time, the 3x leverage is perfect when everything is going up nearly the same amount, and the small caps were the biggest beneficiary of the Republican sweep.
I hope everyone was able to take advantage this week, and I hope more is to come! :)
Stocktrader
Thanks Saleem for the detailed market analysis. I am looking for DKS, what is your take on this. Hi stocktrader, Your inputs are very much appreciated
Hi explorer,
I think DKS is poised to report a great quarter including heavy online traffic after they bought many of the bankrupt Sports Authority's online and physical assets. Thanks for reminding me of this--I had looked at it again over the weekend :)
Stocktrader
Hi Saleem,
Sold QRVO @ 53.41
It seems like the wrong kind of stock into year end especially after its second margin guide down. I like the stock into next year, but it may need to prove itself first.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
I think you have an excellent portfolio. I never thought that the market would react positively to Trump's victory. In fact I reduced my position to protect myself. I was wrong. You played very well with TNA and other stocks. Like Saleem, you are also an optimist. You guys always look at the brighter side of life. Keep up the good work. Thanks for sharing your trades. Good luck to everyone.
Joseph
Hi Stocktrader,
Your intense hard work and focus on next best strategy is producing outstanding results.
Your approach to constant research is unique.
" what luck got to do with this "
All hardcore ongoing analysis.
Saleem
Hi guys,
Thank you very much for the kind words. I hope posting my thoughts and trades can help others as well. I am not always right, but sharing different ideas can hopefully help us all come to good decisions :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Sold AAPL @ $105.374
Bought TCK @ $22.74
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
Good luck with the swap! It is hard to know when we will see some mean reversion on this ferocious market readjustment. I suspect the C$ continued weakness is hurting TCK also.
Stocktrader
Hi guys,
An interesting tidbit from ZYNE's release today:
"Management believes that the Company's available funds, including proceeds from the sale of common stock received through November 11, 2016, are sufficient to develop five Phase 3 ready programs and these resources are sufficient to fund operations and capital requirements into 2018."
This should mentally alleviate the biggest fear on the stock. Even if they decide to keep nibbling at the ATM offering, the lack of *need* to do so should allow the stock to continue the good run.
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
I heard TCK CEO over the weekend, he is very bullish on ZINC.....
Extremely optimistic about TCK prospect.
They do sales in US$.....they will benefit from CAD weakness.
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
Good to know that CAD angle--good luck with the position! :)
Stocktrader
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