Market once again in control of Hedge funds on the short side........
What was so devastating news to give us a 228 dip on Dow ????
Most economist are in "full agreement that we are going to "skirt recession".....
Fed is committed to avoid recession.......
But.....if you look @ stock prices in any sector......
You will believe that we are in "full fledged recession already for many months"
I personally "not buying today's sell off..except that some hedge funds have decided to take the market down to a certain level"
Hedge funds have the know how & money to play with market @ whim......
So...we all WAIT ...AGAIN......
To see where their game will END.....
Fed delayed actions have caused all this damage to the market.....where shorts are the only game in town for almost 2000 dow points......
Again review what you have in your portfolio & determine if it CAN withstand a "slower economy".......or else switch to better pick based on FA......
Currently "no stock or sector seems to be holding"
Most of the stocks are down BIG.....especially in solar sector ????
Close today is of "great interest to me"
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
33 comments:
Hi Saleem,
Here it is again, strong selling into any rally, I've seen this action some time in the past but can't remember when. Can you remember it? This action is professionally driven. Retail guys just are not that sophisticated to drive down the market at a moments notice.
Standards
fewer posts on bad days as investors and traders stare at the tickers in disbelief, me included. I hope we turn around a little with some short covering today, but with the ever waning fear of a surprise rate cut, shorts may be bolder to let their winners run, down!
Hi Standards,
I have seen many many times from 2000 to 2002......same pattern NOW..
Then the reason was "bubble" NOW "fear of recession"
One day UP & ONE day DOWN is the NORM....unless fed comes into play with decisive move....
Saleem
Hi Doug,
It is another painful day...no matter how you slice it.....
Solar stocks are taking a "major hit"
I will NOT count on fed to come before their scheduled meeting decision day....which is another 15 days away.....
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
I've tried to post a couple of times but don't understand why I can't. When I enter my username and password, it never works. Once in awhile I'll see my son's name pop up or my user name and then I can send a message.
Sorry for the downdraft in the market and all the pain it's causing.
I've stayed remarkably safe considering some of my buys on Friday: FWLT, STP, EDU, FCSX, LDK, IMA...
The only one I've lost money on is LDK as I exited FWLT, STP and EDU before they sank (with gains on all three.) Exited ABK yesterday with a gain, but it is holding up pretty well here before the rate cut.
Big mistake was buying JRJC yesterday. I've got to quit buying that kind of stuff.
I think I'll exit LDK on the bounce and revist solars when they start to uptrend.
I've really come to appreciate not only IH but decision point. The latter has consistently called the trend in the market. I'm sure we'll see bounces in here, but they still have sells across the board (even in the ultra bearish camp.)
If I can, I'll gather some stocks they have buys on after tonight's close.
B
Appreciate your staying power Saleem. It kept me in certain stocks until I could get out at a gain.
Hi Beatrice,
Congratulation on quick profitable trades......
Always take profit...wherever you have always.....
My portfolio is in DEEP RED.....
Saleem
Saleem,
I'm about to leave but will read your response later.
What is going on at the solar conference today that might account for what is happening in this sector.
I don't visit MBs anymore and only saw references to it in Fly on the Wall.
Sorry again about what's happening.
B
well Saleem,
at least LDK is selling off on extremely low volume. I hope that means that hedgies will have plenty of room to buy it back up.
Hi Doug,
4.4 million shares is average volume on LDK.
I have NO clue what is going on in solar.....they are being clobbered.
Hope there is upgrades based on low valuation.....
Saleem
Saleem,
do you have any insight as to options exp this friday with LDK and how it may play into the end of the week for stock price?
My two plays of the week aren't doing too bad, even in this market : ORB and IBKR
I am very tempted by DKS...They raised guidance today... was a good daytrade... but I don't do that anymore...
I am glad I resisted buying STP yesterday...
Hi Doug,
Options on LDK goes with strike price....$35,$40
It is anybodys guess where this friday price will be.....
If MM wants to take it below $35 to make $35 to 0......
Then that is where it is heading most likely.....
Saleem
NAS -64.63
DJIA - 282.16
They're taking everything down...solar, tech...
Tough to watch.....just have to work the portfolio smarter/harder in 2008.
Hi Bruce,
This a major meltdown in solar ???
No NEWS ???
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
What an ugly day. I'm down more than $5000 and it really hurts and I dont know whether I should sell or hold for tomorrow. I used to be a happy guy but last 3 months is killing me.
Saleem and other users if you don't mind me asking, can you tell how much are you guys investing in the stock market?
I have $80000 in stock right now and planning to take half off before market close today.
Thanks.
Hi Rimm,
Do whatever feels right.
You can alway's come back to invest more......
It is all.... about how you feel about your stocks & markets...
I have almost double in the market....but it is dwindling past 2.2 week....
Saleem
RIMM,
I'm working with about $100,000. Down YTD 12%. Total bummer as the hedgies make big profits shorting us all to Hades.
Rimmtrade,
You have gotta know GS is lovin every minute of this, as no doubt they liquidated a TON of the securities in their portfolio before they announced the recession the other day.
As whether to sell or not, I think it depends upon your time frame. In other words, do you need the money now or can you get by without liquidating. Only you know that.
I sold my WM today at $13.92 at $1.20 per share loss. I just felt there was too much risk for me to handle at this time and this market. My AKNS, AAPL, LDK and SEED, I am holding, even though all of them are getting a royal buttkicking today.
You know what, I like the market more when it goes up than when it goes down.
If this market doesn't push the FED, Congress, Treasury and President into some serious policymaking nothing will. Get off your butts and do your JOBS!!!!
Sorry, had to vent
Bruce
INTC is down $3 AH looks like more bleeding tomorrow.
INTC... Well, that tops the cake. Just went on the INTC board... like watching a car wreck...
INTC DOWN 16%+ IN ah. Like I said before, they are bringing the whole market down....'till there is a capitulation/blood on the street.
Saleem,
Forget my prior post asking about a solar conference.
Turns out they were talking about the Photovoltaic Tech Show that ended yesterday.
Fly reported that OPCO "believes new polysilicon entrants will likely fall short on their objectives, lending support to spot prices, a positive for outperform rated WFR and FSLR." That came out this morning - didn't do much for either stock.
My question is what came out of that show that might have contributed to the sell-off in solar today? If you can elaborate on the above Saleem and extrapolate a bit, I'd appreciate it.
Thanks,
B
Hi all,
Watching Intel get hammered after hours is torment. What a great earnings improvement in the 4th qtr. The Intel chief says they see no recession either??!?!?!? We know, neither do we. So what gives with the huge loss AH?
Standards
Well the one possible good thing to come out of this bloodfest, is that there will be many good stocks around at prices where serious $$ will be made. (Oh...one small problem....need cash to buy those bargains.)
Portfilio (with a litlle levity):
AKNS - 18.97% - akeena think it was destroyed today!
AAPL - 7.07% - beaten to a pulp today!
LDK - 19.59% - 10th degree sunburn. Burned beyind recognition!
SEED - 14.37 - withered due to a drought...need buckets of water to revive!
Cash 39.79% - sold WM today to raise more cash. I wish I could change the 39.79% to 99.79%!
I look forward to another day much the same as today...unfortunately.
Better days are ahead!!
Painful as it is, we'll all get through this!
Bruce
Hi Bruce,Mad,Standard,Rimm,Beatrice,Frog,Saleem, and all others...
Bruce, you are correct that there will be better days. The temptation to sell for huge losses can feel like a relief but it is patience that will make dolars. Even though I know this to be true, I almost sold today. I read a piece on trading recently and the point that hit me was that discipline in trading/investing is an every day, consistent thing. You cant go with emotions that change daily. We are all hurting but it is times like this that we need to help each other strategize in order to win in the end. I am hoping that all here will share any insight so that wwe can try to navigate this together. My call is to stay put and wait it out. Please feel free to opine! LOL. Thanks, Doug... p.s. I was glad to hear that B sold EDU before today.
Doug,
I do not know your financial situation but I agree with your last blog..it is extremely difficult to maintain your conviction and restrain yourself from reacting on a minute to minute basis when your getting jerked around by the market. Unfortunately more pain is ahead in the short-term but like Saleem has said many times, you have to take a longer outlook to be suscessful in the market (i.e. what will your stocks look like at the end of the year....11+months from now. I am confident ALL of my stocks will be significantly higher then than now!!!)
By the time market is in a bull mode, I will have no or little money to benefit from the bull market ;).
Why not stop the bleeding and wait couple more days or weeks or months and get into market when things are clearer. While am I saying, I still have $70k in the market lol. I think I am addicted to pain;)
for us solar investors, there is an encouraging article on msn site by Jim Jubak. It was written today, Here is the link but you cant click here, you'll have to type it in.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Inv...
I bought some QID after hours just to hedge my account. Looks like nasdaq is going to tank tomorrow unless FED cuts the rates again.
Hi Everyone,
Here is an old proverb that is true.
That risk may cause failure, but success can not come without it.
With all the selling going on, the money is accumulating on the side lines waiting to come back in. Where else can they get better returns than the market????????
Cash accounts are paying puny sums. IRA's, Roths, 401's, etc. are all being funded right now before April. That money is going to be invested in stocks sure as the earth is round.
Saleem is right, have some conviction with your purchases. Hang in there!
Standards
Cheer up note.
Anyone needing some cheering up go to
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Index.htm
and read the big picture story at the bottom. Real data.
Article in Wall Street Journal on Friday, 52 economists surveyed, only 2 predict recession. Duh!
Standards
Saleem Bloggers,
One of the e-mails, I signed up for. I think it's assumptions regarding the market tommorrow are reasonable.
______________________________
You have received this by requesting "Weekly Wizards," a weekly email publication by AdviceTrade featuring our newsletter writers as well as selected managers, analysts and traders. View the html version of this report at http://www.advicetrade.com/Wizards/ . Removal instructions are at the bottom.
Fed to the Rescue?
Q&A with Jay Matulich, Septos Capital Management
What a tough market of late. Thoughts?
This has been quite a traumatic experience for investors since the last week of December. Just before New Year's and then rolling into the new year, we've had a number of triple-digit down days and a couple of up-days with lethargic volume on the upside. It is definitely trying investors' patience, but there is a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace with a number of issues. The sub-prime mess is looking to leak down into the derivatives market with these credit default swaps. Investors are wondering in the counterparty trades if the counterparties are going to be able to make good on these payments. They wondering in financial stocks if there's more carnage to come. And now you've got the high-end consumer companies with earnings coming out that are not meeting expectations. That's following what happened to the traditional retail stocks over the last six months. So, you've got bad sentiment out there for owning shares, and the market just cannot get any momentum going to the upside. It just seems like there's constant selling coming in, which has a lot to do with these quant funds, which quite frankly are backward looking. Once their models say to sell, they sell.
Are we near a climactic bottom?
I think we could get that tomorrow. Intel (INTC) just reported a miss on their earnings and light guidance on their revenues. That means their gross margins are probably down. The stock is off in the aftermarket right now upwards of 15%. All of the ETFs -- the SPDRs (SPY), the Q's (QQQQ), and the Russell 2000 (TWM) -- are all off significantly, so we could open down 200-400 points tomorrow, and that may get us to some type of bottom.
Today the TRIN indicator, which detects overbought and oversold levels of the market, closed out at over 4.3, which is super high, and we're going to get that easily, I believe, at the opening tomorrow morning. It could be a brutal opening. The question is: Do we crash from there? I think that's a legitimate question to ask yourself. With the momentum that's been in the market over the last 2 1/2 years, is there a possibility that we crash tomorrow? One thing I'll be watching for is the market going up on bad news rather than everybody waiting for good news for it to go up. That's the wrong recipe. I think we do need more bad news to see how the market reacts. If it reacts favorably, then we could be in for a rally. I do think we're in for a rally, and I do think it goes into March. Right now it's a question of when.
Could the Fed take action?
Yes, I think it may tomorrow. If the Fed is going to cut ahead of the Jan 31 scheduled meeting, I believe that they'll act tomorrow. Cut the discount rate and the Fed funds rate. I just think that the market anxiety and panic could possibly dictate that. It would be before the market opens.
So you see the market crashing unless the Fed acts prior to opening?
That's right.
___________________________________
We'll see. Make sure you put your seatbelt on tommorrow, it's going to be a rough ride!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Post a Comment