The above title is taken from a very upbeat song from Caribbean......
Why Upbeat ........."in the eye of storm"
Because the storm has already given its "one two punch"
Will there be another "third Punch"...@ worst MAYBE.....
If we take the third punch scenario...we are looking @ 70 NASDAQ point ... one more day of "knockout".....
But we have a very good chance of making a "V bottom".......
What is a "V bottom"...we go down 70 NASDAQ point in a hurry after open then go sideways till 3PM and a recovery by close........
This will give strong stocks to get deeply oversold.........hedgies will cover their short in a coordinated manner...as we all know they manipulate the direction of market by "banding together"...it is a fraternity & Jim Cramer is one of the band master.......
NASDAQ 100 is getting clobbered the-most...why ???it is easy to manipulate few of the 100 stocks.....by selling short.....
So IMHO...we are very close to the bottom........
So...if we all of us including Bruce can muster one more day of pounding of 70 NASDAQ point then I can "clearly see recovery from Tuesday"......
I know...I know....that is a very Bold & Dangerous statement to make...but...... the prediction is based on everything I have witnessed in the past 40 years in markets........
If you can "muster some courage for Monday....we all will live to congratulate each other for a bold stand"
Now......if YOU are really "gutsy to the hilt"...you will actually be buying some stocks on Monday and will make a decent $ by end of the week......imvho......of course all this is based on historical pattern in the markets.....
So what is a HOT,HOT,HOT sector.........
HOT is SOLAR
HOT is Agriculture
In solar the most undervalued stocks are LDK & CSIQ.......
In ag sector the most undervalued is AGU.....
So...let us do some FA and see why I am highlighting these stocks and compared with others in the same sector who are trading @ premium.......
By the way nothing is WRONG in buying premium...but I personally prefer undervalued in a hot sector................
FSLR Sales $807.86 million EPS $1.99 PE 123.41
STP Sales 2.31 billion..........EPS $2.05 PE 39.92
LDK Sales $1.04billion.........EPS $1.77 PE 25.66
CSIQ Sales $711.76 million EPS $1.32 PE 21.05
POT Sales $5.83 billion.......EPS $5.54 PE 25.75
BG Sales $47.83 billion.......EPS $6.08 PE 19.90
AGU Sales $5.43 billion.........EPS $5.43 PE 17.03
Now.....do you see WHY......I own LDK,CSIQ & AGU......because as Late Johnie Cochrane would say if he was a blogger....."Saleem show your cards & tell them WHY"....
So.. on a cloudy Sunday...in Toronto area...
I am looking ahead.......with great hope & imminent GAIN in my portfolio......
Worrying is only justified to some extent.......
Rest should be left to "hardcore analysis" as done above.....
As I always say "numbers NEVER lie...manipulators DO...because they have to......"
As a last thought.... TA catches UP to Fundamentals sooner or later !!!!
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell
Please do your OWN analysis & make your OWN decision...I am known to be overly OPTIMISTIC......this is a "Taurus trait"
Saleem
PS...I am enjoying all the postings in comment section..keep it shared & well informed !!
23 comments:
Hello all!
I was wondering if anybody was using the DAILY GRAPHS ONLINE service from IBD. I have been watchig the daily Daily Stock Analysis videos on their website and I must admit, I am very temped to jump in and pay for that service. Seems to me that it's a great timesaver to obtain key FA and TA informations about stocks.
Saleem... Got to love your optimism! It's contagious. I am impressed about the tone of your Blog. It's refreshing to see people talk about stocks in a very civilized and intelligent way.
I started reading One Up on Wall Street last night. I understand where you are cominf from when reading it. It's also nicely written.
Hi Frogvest,
Thanks for your compliment.
Knowledge is the base on which you set UP your investment strategy.
Successful investors develop their OWN uniquue way of trading.
we all learn differently...I have Never subscribed to any service ever.....never read any book by anyone either....
But do pay attention to different STYLE of investing & trading....
Have listened to many managers on TV & try to figure out what they are really saying...and take it from there.
Saleem
LDK Investors check this out, this is a must read.
http://www.kjworld.com/LDK/WhatISayAboutLDK.pdf
Good morning Saleem,
I appreciate your latest blog so much. It is great to be exposed to the inner thoughts of a 40 year trader. It surely beats my two. LOL... I am posting an IH pick that is a little unusual for them. The reason that I decided to post this one, is because it is considered a safe bet. There may be some people on the blog who would like a play that is rather conservative, given the volatility in the market, but want gains and not just dead money, protected. but with little upside. It is MO and it looks like some good money might be able to be made with this one. I love your solar and ag plays and I agree with you 100%. This is just one pick that plays well for conservatives. Here it is:
Play Date: 01/05/2008
MO (Altria Group--$74.90; -0.49; optionable): Tobacco
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mo.html
EARNINGS: Mid-January; has not confirmed the date
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. In this weaker market MO is always a good place to put some money as it can give moves in the $6 to $8 range; nothing flashy, just nice and steady. It has come back to the 50 day EMA (74.78) the past 5 weeks, testing a nice breakout and run in November from a large 8 month trading range. Good technical entry point; just want to see strong volume as it makes the move, and that should not be a problem.
Volume: 11.11M Avg Volume: 10.306M
BUY POINT: $76.31 Volume=12M Target=$85.95 Stop=$74.65
POSITION: MO CO - Mar. $75c (54 delta) &/or Stock
Saleem, what do you think is a good entry point for AGU? Thanks much for your thoughts. Doug...
SALEEM and FROGVEST:
SALEEM You are so generous-thanks for the blog--you have taken the time to explain your self so elegantly--CNBC talks way to loud and fast so that you CAN NOT get a clear concise picture of what it is thats really important and what is BS. J. Cramer sure is full of himself, and again never fully discloses his true analysis of or reason to buy or sell, he is a shrill, he rants and raves about stocks and causes one to have a head ach!
You my friend are kind and gentle and expalin you self very well. thanks. I can follow your analysis.
As for IBD, do not pay up till you have read the various books about the IBD system, if you DO NOT get what it is that they are offering and how his system works you may chase stocks and only to lose you hard earned money. IBD NEVER get you in at the front end of a run on any stock --there system is back-ward looking. The same is true as to when to sell. So please reconsider paying for the service.
As SALEEM says, some of the best things in life are free.
I hope that this helps about your decision for paying up, for IBD servics.
Madmax--Peace to all
Hi Doug,
Before I answer your question...it is "very important to understand..that strong sectors are NOT as much impacted by even BEAR market"
So I always say & practice buying in "hot sectors only"...thus todays theme.....
What is hot ,HOT,HOT....
Solar & Ag.....where I am overweight....
AGU is a strong buy @ current price...
Buy the strong & red hot sectors only ....
Saleem
Thanks for reply Saleem. I understand what you are saying. As you know, I am in LDK, ESLR, BG and SOHU. So, 3/4 of my stocks are ag and solar. I want to take your solid advice and hold 5-6 stocks, so I may add some AGU tomorrow. I am thinking about a little MO just because I think that scaredy cats may put momentum behind it. It would only be a trade for me. I was surprised to see IH pick MO. Usually they are in stocks that have more explosive moves, hence my intrigue with MO. Psychologically, it makes sense to me. I would probably take the first buck and leave the trade anyway, full disclosure. LOL.
Saleem, I hope that you can see that I am blending your great guidance and coupling it with IH picks that match your outlook, so that I can have their intra day guidance via email alerts and match to your sector picks and other advice. Its not every day that a guy can be blessed to have a 40 year trader as a mentor. I do look at you as a mentor.
Looking forward to tomorrow. Never shy to say thanks. Doug...
Hi Doug,
Thanks for your appreciation of my BLOG & my take.....
I like your portfolio whole lot if you add AGU.....
5 to 6 solid bets is a great way to benefit from a long-term trend...which is Solar,Ag & search in China......
Good luck !!!
saleem
Hello Madmax,
Thank you for your input but I think I should clarify something.
I do understand that the CANSLIM system has its flaws. I use mainly IBD (their online publication) to get ideas. I must also admit that reading their editorials makes me cringe most of the time (a bit on the right side for my taste…) . Their Stock Checkup service is useful but I would never base my decision on that tool only. Usually, I use it to weed out the ugly ones. After I find something that looks good, I leave IBD and do my own FA and TA (thanks to Saleem and Stockchart…).
The IBD service I am talking about (Daily Graphs Online) is not a buy or sell recommendation service. It's a research tool. I don't know if you have ever watched their DSA videos (free service on their main page), but that's the tool they are using. I am tempted by that service because all the info is there in one place (earnings for the last 8 quarters, quarterly sales, ROE, mutual fund ownership...). I must admit that their chart service is not as nifty as Stockchart.
Right now, to find all the info I want on a stock, I have to check at least 6 different websites. It's more a question of saving time doing FA. I still want to make my buy and sell decisions by myself; I just want to do it more "quickly" and efficiently.
That's the reason why I was wondering if anybody ever paid for that service. I would like to know, for example, if it is as complete and user friendly as it seems or what about data accuracy and all.
One again, thank you for your input.
Hi Madmax,
Any info/knowledge is a great asset...
There is LOT of info given by IBD & others for a small fee....
we all need to know how to make your OWN personal decisions...based on all the info which is out there.
Copying any system 100% will NOT give the returns ...we all aspire to.....
Thanks for your appreciation of my efforts in my BLOG......
I am encouraging FA 70% TA 30% after FA.....
Hope I am being successful....
Saleem
SALEEM
Any comment as to what you consider a good ebnrty point for AGU???
I like AGU a lot, EPS, $46.09
IBD:
Earnings Per Share (EPS) Rating Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating Industry Group Relative Strength (Grp RS) Rating Sales + Profit Margins + ROE (SMR) Rating Accumulation/ Distribution (Acc/Dis) Rating
95 98 A+ C B
It has an RSI of 65.53 and target price of $91.
I will try and buy some on Monday, and again thank you for your help and being a friend.
Madmax
Thanks to all bloggers for their opinions. I really enjoy coming to this site and reading them.
Thank you Saleem for including me in the same sentence as you, regarding our respective portfolios. I wear that as a badge of honor!
To all: I have been in the market for 30+ years and have made my share of mistakes. Everyone who is in the market makes them so don't be too discouraged...just keep trying to learn.
As previously noted, I will continue to hold LDK, AAPL and JEC. They may all take a tumble next week and I'm currently in my lotus position chanting my mantra to prepare myself. However, all three of these stocks will recover quickly once the FED announces another rate cut (50 basis points, I hope) and President Bush announces additional economic stimuli shortly.
As always, the question that goes through ones mind is: do I sell tommorrow and get back in at a lower price?...or do I hold on? As I discussed above, all three of my stocks will recover any damage done to them quickly. As I do not know the date and time of the FED and the President's impending announcements, it is my opinion that if I chose to sell on Monday and then try to get back into my stocks, I may end up paying a price for them higher than what I sold them for. Therefore, I am going to stay in my lotus position and chant away.
Just my opinion!
Bruce
Hi Madmax,
I am NOT very good in picking bottom on any stock.....
If I like something....I buy it...
If it goes down...and if I have extra cash or selling something..I buy more.....
I am more focussed..on the UPTREND & sector strength.
Saleem
Bruce,
I really liked your humble response to Saleem. I appreciate your participation on the blog, as well as all others here. Birds of a feather flock together and all of you folks are being true Ladies and Gentlemen here. I love it and dig it! To escape the message boards and move from having to sift through an ocean of crap to find an occasional pearl, is just absolutely refreshing. This blog not only has a seasoned trader and a Gentleman as its leader, but it possesses all of the good folks without the mean ones and ones that try to fool or lead astray. Finally a site that can actually help to make us all money!!!
Bruce,
You made me discover JEC. I spent last night looking at their numbers: very impressive IMO. Chartwise, if it falls to its 10W MA and gets support there, looks like a good buy. I also looked at CBI (same sector) and it is also very attractive on the FA side. Money seems to be shifting toward that sector. It’s worth keeping a close eye on. I won’t dare telling what to do tomorrow with your portfolio but I think I can safely say that you are in better position than the majority of traders…
Looking forward to see what your move will be. Cheers!
Hi Bruce,
I CAN always spot experience...whenever a person talks or writes.....
Your strategy was talking LOUD & CLEAR about your trading expertise...so had to direct the entire BLOG towards you....
We all need "experience vs opinions..."
That is the biggest KNOCK I have against MB...too many one liners...no facts or reason given WHY....
Your strategy is pretty close to mine.....
I tend to play with FIRE more often & mostly come out with only little finger "scalded"
Saleem
Hi frogvest,
I use Daily Graphs Online and it does help because the FA numbers are all in one place (including eight years of EPS). In fact, there is far more FA than I use. It's not expensive, only $100 a month, so you should "drive it" for one month to see if you like it. If not, discontinue it.
I also used their top 100 stocks which they email me after the market closes on Friday, and the Industry Groups.
Their top 100 list shows the additions and the stocks moving up.
The Industry Groups list all 197 Groups, but I hunt for trades in the top five groups. Solar is Group #1 at this time, and it lists all the Solar Stocks. I open a seperate file for each of the top groups on StockCharts.com, and review them nightly, looking at the RSI and the Full Stochastic to see which of the top stocks are oversold and turning up.
Since I started using TA (Saleem's knockout 2007 convinced me) along with the IBD FA, my results are looking like they belong to a professional trader (which I am not).
Hope this helps
Mainer3
Thanks a lot for your input! Yep, for 67$ a month, I can have access to the Daily Graphs Online and at least try it. The other services don't appeal to me right now (Screen Wizard and all)
I will let you know my commentaries once I sign up. Thanks again.
Saleem,
Do you have a take on Pinetree Capital? It seems like a good way to invest in the exployers of Uranium, Gold, base metals and oil without having to pick them.
Hi Stktrader,
No I do NOT know pinetree capital.
I personally believe all those sectors are overvalued right NOW.
WAIT a month then go "overweight on all those sectors"...just my opinion !!!
With 30% TA focus...I try to ride momentum...on the way UP..not DOWN $$$
Saleem
Saleem
IMVHO....you are right on with your prediction. The overseas markets are playing follow the leader and diving in unison with the DOW. Could there be a play here? Right now futures are showing green, could change by morning though. Every time I read your blog I become more enlightened. Thanks
Standards
Hi Standards,
I got up early @ 430 AM to see what the news flow is.....
LDK has a positive minority stake in a supplier nearby.....
Futures are all green Nasdaq UP 10..
China was UP also....
Looks like my two punch theory may be OK.....
Sometimes OPTIMISM is GOOD !!!
Thanks for your appreciative comment for my BLOG contents.
Saleem
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