World markets are calmer & generally UP.......
Europe is all "green"
Futures are all UP.....
Is this for real ???
Yesterday tape gave me confirmation that selling may have dried up......
I am NEVER sure these days because of hedge funds...like GS.....they CAN trash the markets with their "short strategy"
If we end UP green today....then we can safely conclude that markets have even discounted "inaction by the feds & administration & have accepted the fact that the current issues faced by the economy is too complex and needs time to sort it out"
So....I am looking @ today's TAPE ...with great optimism.....
Will my "optimism show some real $"
My portfolio took a heavy pounding in last 2 trading days...down 10.6% from peak of last year..inspite of the fact that I got 4.7% from my Canadian $ short.....
Only close will tell......
Good luck on a "turnaround Tuesday"
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
20 comments:
Saleem, I am trying to take advantage of volatility this year. As with most retail investors, in the past I have always been too "all in" the markets, so when corrections hit, I would be fully exposed to the damage and then instead of making money on dips, I would just be in a recoup my losses mode. This year, I am testing to see if I can buy on dips and sell into strength. The only way that I can see accomplishing this is to always have cash on hand and make trades faster. I am looking to be more patient this year and wait for those buying opportunities, like MA or AGU yesterday as examples of great times to enter into a trade.
So, with swing trading, I cannot predict what my income will be. You just have to wait and see where everything came out at the end of the month. So, I am trying to make day trades now, so that I can have a weekly goal set to attain X dollars per month. I did two small trades yesterday, one for $300 and one for $255 after commissions. I plan on not forcing any trades on myself and take what the market will give me but I am attempting strategy of buying on weakness and selling into strength and be in cash at the end of each day or at least week, so that I can actually withdraw money from the account and pay bills with it. The idea of not letting a stock retreat past my buy point in order to control/limit losses and sell stocks on smaller moves up is going to require more work and more stress but I look at it as competitive stress and not typical unhealthy stress. It is more like a daily challenge, "can I reach my goal today of $300-$500 in trades? You and I have discussed this before. I believe that the main discipline in this strategy is to not push a trade when the timing is not right. In other words, patience to wait for dips on stocks, watching the tape and looking for small % gains on a decent amount of shares. I am also trying to only use 30-50% of my cash at any given time so that my capital risked is less and take gains off of that smaller risk. I very well may have to adjust this approach, if I find that goals are not being attained but right now it feels good to be ready to step up and buy on down days, strong stocks that have decent volatility and decent daily volume. Flea on the back of an elephant strategy...
As far as your personal life, If you would have been driving a Bentley and had a flashy personal life, You would not be who I have pictured in my mind. Your humble and mild mannered interactions with people match up to your "not so Hollywood" lifestyle. This blog and all of your efforts to help folks, show that you have mountains of wealth in your heart, the best place to store a gold mine! I do wish that my annual dollars needed was in your range but because of Private school for two kids, two cars, house payment, now paying for private health insurance, braces for two kids teeth...I need to make several thousand per month just to make ends meet. I still cant thank you enough for being so gracious with your time and sharing your accumulated knowledge with all of us. It is exciting to see the blog come so to life as it has. I do not even post to message boards anymore as your site is WAY more productive, civil and I have learned to trust you and that makes all of the difference. I will let you know how my strategy works and I will be honest and first to admit if this trading does not work. As you have said before, for each of us to find a personal style or strategy that we are comfortable with. I hope the best for all of us. Doug... p.s. I realize that you are not crazy about what I am trying to do with trading (unrealistic dollar gains expectations) but its one of those things where I have to try to find out for myself wether or not I can do it. I know you understand.
Saleem and all,
Here is what IBD was saying about the Market yesterday... :
"Volume edged higher across the board on a volatile day for the market.
The market’s comeback in the final few minutes of trading suggested resilience after several days of strong selling.
But look a little closer and that last-minute rebound starts to lose its luster. Leading stocks, under pressure all day, failed to bounce back in step with the market.
[...]
When leading stocks bank big price gains on a quiet day for the market, we call that a stealth rally, indicating underlying strength. When leaders fall hard on a day when the major indexes close nearly unchanged, you get the opposite effect — a stealth sell-off.
The market remains in a correction. "
I have noticed, with momemtum investing that if your timing is off, you can get burned realy quickly (I know, it's kind of obvious...) . That's also what makes the CANSLIM way of trading very tricky.
Analysing trades made by people on this Blorg you your take on the market will, I hope, help me get a sense of how to go about trading.
Here is an idea for anyone who is looking for a potential opportunity: full disclosure, I do not own. Doug...
Upside: Still looking upside as money shifts to the medical/health defensive areas as well as continues to find its way into energy.
Play Date: 01/07/2008
CPHD (Cepheid--$26.83; +1.11; optionable): Testing systems for molecular diagnostics used in medical, industrial, and biothreat industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cphd.html
EARNINGS: First week of February
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice volume the past two sessions as CPHD breaks higher off the 18 day EMA (25.59). This is actually the first test of the mid-December breakout from its 8 week base, and the first test is one if not the favorite entry point for us. Nice breakout volume, nice low volume test, nice resumption of the breakout move on strong trade. Very nicely formed base using the 50 day EMA and 90 day SMA as support, showing plenty of institutions using the test to buy just as they are buying now. Ready to move in as it continues higher to a new all-time high.
Volume: 1.549M Avg Volume: 984.086K
BUY POINT: $27.31 Volume=1M Target=$32.95 Stop=$25.58
POSITION: QHY CE - Mar. $25c (66 delta) &/or Stock
Hi Doug,
Thanks for your detailed thesis on your life,expectations & my focus on important things like happiness which has "no linkage with $"
Now... to your strategy & my lack of enthusiasm for any goal.....
See...goal is accomplished when you understand the pitfalls and position accordingly....
I definitely see a more pragmatic approach to your trading.....
You are risking LESS capital(Max 50%) and trying to position better with each trades......
See... I could have said yes to your previous strategy of "euphoria & unrealism"...instead I forced you to think deeply & come up with a better plan.....
You DO have a better plan thanks to your committment to being pragmatic/risk focussed & locking gains quickly.....
If you stay on this course in a disciplined way...I do SEE you coming closer & closer to your goal.
You are definitely focussed with a practical plan to ensure a SANE strategy.....
I have a feeling...that you are going to make it in 2008.....
Yes...your expenses are generally justified..but..try to control some expenses wherever you can....
Save everything till end of the year...then celeberate !!!
I am alway's here to answer personal & trading issues with integrity...
You can always count on it !!!
Saleem
Saleem,
You definitely made me think very deeply about this strategy. The wisdom to push me to rethink and rethink again reminds me of a College Professor or Teacher of some kind as that is what leaders and teachers tend to do, challenge one to think. Were you a Teacher before retiring? Thank you SO MUCH for your encouraging words this morning. Doug...
Hi Frogvest,
Thanks for your post re IBD take on markets.....
Market do look UGLY @ bottom....
Momentum stocks have given me serious money last year....
Just need to focus on new sector which will give the return in 2008.
I will suggest...you should start nibbling..based on your research.
Minimum 4 stocks preferably 6....
We are always here to help.
Saleem
Here is one more trading idea for blog participants. Doug...
Play Date: 01/07/2008
IMA (Inverness Medical--$57.89; +0.37; optionable): OTC in vitro diagnostic products (pregnancy, fertility) as well as professional diagnostic testing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ima.html
EARNINGS: Late January
STATUS: Cup. IMA is forming a 9 week cup base, bottoming at the 90 day SMA (55.80) the past two weeks. Volume surged Friday and Monday as IMA moved off of this level, clearing the late December interim high. It is still down in the lower half of its base (November high at 65 marks the peak), but this is a solid stock with good institutional backing. Moreover, this is the kind of market that really benefits the medical stocks. And it can give us a great gain without having to plow a bunch of new ground. Very nice and looking for a strong break above the 50 day SMA (58.08) to give us the entry point.
Volume: 1.339M Avg Volume: 818.119K
BUY POINT: $58.24 Volume=1.2M Target=$68.95 Stop=$55.78
POSITION: IMA EL - May $60c (48 delta) &/or Stock
Hi Doug,
I have "impacted many many people ..no matter where I was"
Some people are send with a "purpose"......
My purpose has been to point to a reasonable plan for health/happiness/prosperity...
I have been blessed with knowledge of many many things because I read a lot and always looking for great mentors......
I have also been blessed with fame as a sportsmen of a very high calibre.....
I have been told by many that I have unbelievable charisma to change/impact people.....
I am a believer in what I DO & SAY...
I have an infectious enthusiasm for living.....
Helping/guiding gives me the-most happiness.....
I am all heart...never done anything unless I believed in it...
Extremely choosy about friends...but extremely loyal to them....go out of the way to CHEER them UP......
Never cared much for being an employee......
Always wanted freedom from 9 to 5...
Was District Manager of a region for hospital dietary services....
Managed $20 million worth of contract sales.....for Marriott.
Extremely focussed on numbers in life & stocks.....
There you have it ......
Saleem
Very interesting past Saleem. I will share a little, as an attempt to bolster our friendship. I was a Pharmaceutical sales rep/trainer for 12 years and then a managed care contracting manager for two years. I covered seven states and was gone from home constantly. I hated the travel as I am a family guy and did not like the seperation from my wife and kids. So I started buying apartment buildings and walked away from a six figure income and started my own managment/ownership of apartment complexes. I owned 132 units at my peak. I did that for 6 years. I lucked out and sold my buildings in one sale (6 buildings) with the intention of fixing up and flipping small homes one at a time. But after I sold, the housing market turned and I found myslef not having a job, a business or income. I sold my job. LOL. So that is when I decided to try investing/trading from home. I am 46 years old. I started two years ago with your typical subscription to Cramer and I lost my ass the first year. Then I tried penny stocks and once again got eaten for lunch by the markets. Then I found IH and Saleem. Those two things, along with strong desire to succeed and a not give up attitude (along with the luck of not losing all of my money) have changed my results dramatically. That is just a little background on me so that as we interact on the blog, you will have better picture of who I am. LOL.
Hi Doug,
Thanks for apartment loaded success story......
Now all you have to do is duplicate the same success in your trading .....
Your trading start...was not an organized approach.....and the result speak for themselve...
There is NO quick way to success on wall street.....lot of singles & few home runs in a disciplined mode.....
Risk needs to be understood for all times.....
Now back to real estate......
I have great enthusiasm for design & architecture.....
Built my first home with my personally designed plan...from scratch to finish....made 400%....
Bought & sold many houses in toronto area...10 to be exact....
Now settled down in my 11th house for 9 years.....
Previous to this ...lived in a huge house 4400 sq ft with a walk-out from basement level which was another 2200 sq ft......it was an architectural marvel....atrium & all....lived for 10 years....
Now happy with 2000 sq ft for two of us 4 bedroom....one bedroom I have converted into my den...basement still unfinished which has 1000 sq ft of additional storage area....it is an organized ,neat storage for us.
Good luck today $$$
Saleem
Hi Saleem. I very much enjoyed your response to my last question. I too try to live a simple life. I don't care what other people have and do my best to take care of what I own. I am married with one 9 yo boy. My wife is my best frined as well. We will in a home built in 1923, nice but modest. I am a physician and live well below my means. I save over half of my take home pay. Most importantly to me, my son is raised in an environment similar to what I did. My dad was a steel worker. Not much money, but we spent a lot of time together. That is better than any amount of money. You are a truly special person to share with us like you do. Peace
SALEEM
and Blog Board:
I feel deeply moved by your out pouring of personal experiences.
I just knew that I found some one special when Saleem showed up. He has never ridiculed any one and has been a mentor and friend this past year.
Doug I am glad that you opened up and shared your history.
For me I put 30 years in the military and 20 yrs in Civil Service Federal Government as a Contracting Officer. I have had to relearn all I ever knew this past year to trade stockes. I lost my behind! So I had to relearn. IBD and Shartchart were my first 2 purchsed items to help me make better decisions. I am getting better. Saleem is getting more focused.
It is my opinion that I now have a better idea on how to make money $$$ for 2008. I know that I have a ways to go as I have a goal of suppliming my forced retirement by making income in the stock market. I considered an annuity for income but did NOT like the return. So I will endevor to put aside money into preferred stocks and high yield stocks for my income. With the balance I wish to continue to trade and learn.
Thanks to all of you and SALEEM, my friend I truely appreciate your efforts to make me a better trader and thinker.
MADMAX
Mina, Mad, Saleem and others,
Very interesting backgrounds. I suspected that we had a group of competent people on this blog. Thanks for sharing. Best wishes to all. I bought a little CPHD this morning. I sold my ESLR for a quick trade but will buy it again today if the opportunity presents. Doug...
HELLO ALL
AKNS seems like a buy here. Huge sell off. SOLF is also selling off, what to do is SOLAR still a safe bet?
Comments appreciated.
madmax
Hi Madmax,
Always go with the winners in any sector...
LDK is the stock in solar.....
Saleem
Saleem,
You know that I am looking to exit SOHU. Do you think this is the right time/right price to getout or should I give it a little more time? Thanks for your thoughts. Doug...
Hi Doug,
Based on chart...I say put an order GTC for $54...just below 50DMA
Saleem
Thanks much for the guidance my friend.
Hi Minaccess,
Thanks for sharing your personal detail & priorities....
I am oldest of 8 children...I loved my father very much....but he died very young @ 46....I was 19 and had to figure out a way to support my 7 younger brothers & sisters plus my mother....
My father had no life insurance and a small amount in his pension fund....
The love which my father gave me resulted in one purpose in life ...to bring my entire family to the level my father would have been proud of me.....
So me & my wife decided not to have any kids...and focus our entire energy on raising my 4 brother & 3 sisters..plus fulfil all the desires of my mother.....
Result is that all my younger brothers & sisters are all minimum college graduate & married and living happily in US.....
My mother got the best gadgetry like a Bosch fridge ,Philips oven ,26" colour TV..all shipped to her from Frankfurt back in 1970...
While I had an 18" color TV till 1985.......
what is life without bringing the best smile on someone else's face !!
i know you wanted to do something for your nieces...I am sure you will make their life.....happier !!
My father spent lot of time with me.....which even as I write brings ters to my eyes.....
Love is so precious.....priceless!!!
I am sure your son & your wife is very proud of all your accomplishement & the love you shower on them......
Physician in US is a big deal...& you carry that with great humility.
Saleem
LDK
Told you yesterday that this one looked tasty :-) Up stronger than STP.
Watching the market very closely...
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