Market was very nervous from 1230 PM and gave up all the gain in all indices......finally Dow was green,S&P 500 was unchanged & NASDAQ was red........
Markets are extremely unsure about anything...so they wait for the next report.....then another report......and goes nowhere but trending down......
Jobs report will be another non-event and we may get a minor rally as we are deeply oversold.....
Rallies will be weak & short lived...until we get clarity on sub-prime mess......
Banks & Brokerage earning reports will confirm the bad news and markets will go to oversold again......
I see Q1 to be painful for most investors...as markets maintains sideways movement.......
So....how to play it.......
Trade whatever is working........
Solar SEEMS to be bucking the trend......
Please make sure you know the FA & TA of each solar stock......
Not all solar stock are created equal.......
Some have earnings...some do NOT.......
Some have higher earnings ....others are working with very little EPS......
Some have high sales in Billions ....others have very little sales......
some have extremely High PE...some have lower PE......
Q1 needs to be traded or invested with KNOWING the stocks.......It is a stock pickers market...
Have low expectation from Q1....then if you exceed...you will feel better........
All economic data points to a slow Q1......so slow economic news will dominate wall street......
Thus...sentiments for wall street will be jittery @ best.......
In my portfolio :
I more than TRIPLED my position in CSIQ....based on FA/TA.......it had a confirmed breakout..next breakout point is $30.98 with an immediate target of $33.99.......CSIQ ended UP $1.23 @ $29.90.....
LDK was down $1.60......on negative bashing /rehash of Piper short thesis......I expect LDK to move sharply UP in short order.....LDK is presenting in Needham conference on 9th Jan......LDK next target is $58.86.......
BIDU was down $6.79...still feeling the after affect of CFO untimely accidental death.....should be ready to recover starting Friday as it is deeply oversold.....next target is $399.77.....
MA was down $2.56.....breakout point is $217.78...with a target of $231.03......
My portfolio was down 1.3% plus further loss of .4% from CAD short..total damage today 1.7%
Please do NOT be overly aggressive in Q1......as lot of negatives are affecting the markets.....highest OIL...highest GOLD...to name a few......
Techs are also in deep slump......strong stocks are "marking time @ lower levels"
Please do your OWN due diligence...as my opinions may NOT pan out......
Appreciate all the messages in BLOG to help each other out........
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Good luck on Friday the 4th.........
Saleem
7 comments:
OK. Been "playing" all night with Stockchart... People, you have to invest some time on that site: it's a goldmine of information about how to read charts (Chart school, glossary...)
Tonight SNCR still looks realy strong. Let's see if my skills are improving...
Is it only me or TA take longer than FA? Seems to be fairly "easy" to find solid numbers, but solid chart paterns are more difficult to spot... IMO...
LDK Holders,
The data below is from a website www.thebuylist.com. The information shows a list of purchases and sales of LDK by mutual funds as of 12/20/07.
Important info, in my opinion:
1. For the period ended December 20, 2007, mutual fund IGNAX purchased 1,408,300 shares of LDK. I believe the period = 2 weeks, but not sure. I did a little research into IGNAX. The fund is a very successful mutual fund with 1, 3, and 5 year returns, totaling 43.59%, 32.61% and 34.15% respectively. Looking at their current portfolio, it is the right areas.
As a LDK shareholder (21.60% of my portfolio), I am encouraged that such a PROVEN successful mutual fund recently purchased 1.4 million shares. From their short and long term track record they obviously know what they're doing......
2. - 8 fund managers bought a total of 2,111,600 shares.
- 2 fund managers sold a total of 12,235 shares.
LDK BUYS WERE 172.59> THAN SALES!
FROM THEBUYLIST.COM WEBSITE:
Fund Transactions for LDK Solar Company (LDK)
Date Updated: 12/20/2007 11:09:23 PM (Updates performed biweekly and monthly)
QUANTITY TYPE SYMBOL FUND NAME
61,700 BUY FLCSX Fidelity Large Cap Stock
Fidelity Investments
110,000 BUY FDESX Fidelity Adv Div Stock O
Fidelity Investments
115,300 BUY FMILX Fidelity New Millennium
Fidelity Investments
130,500 BUY FSNGX Fidelity Sel Natural Gas
Fidelity Investments
-9,059 SELL NEFSX IXIS U.S. Diversified A
IXIS Advisor Funds
1,408,300 BUY IGNAX Ivy Global Natural Res A
Ivy Funds
-3,176 SELL LAGRX Loomis Sayles Agg Gr Ret
Loomis Sayles
205,000 BUY DVIEX Diversified Intl Eq Inv
Diversified Investment
65,800 BUY FALIX Fidelity Adv Large Cap I
Fidelity Investments
15,000 BUY HNETX Huntington New Econ Tr
Huntington
BUY/SELL INFORMATION
sells: 1% buys: 99%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Shares of (LDK) Bought and Sold: 2,123,835
- 8 fund managers bought a total of 2,111,600 shares.
- 2 fund managers sold a total of 12,235 shares.
Any day LDK will be on its way!
Bruce
Hi Frogvest,
TA takes lot of effort in "knowing & interpreting"
In a neutral market charts are critical...to make money.....
This market is lifting "no boat"
I am glad you are spending the-time which is absolutely critical to know the good,the bad & the ugly chart patterns......
Saleem
Hi Bruce,
Thanks for digging deep in mutual fund & institutions pattern.....
Hey ...we are smarter than contra fund...we bought LDK before him.
LDK will "show you the money SOON...this no jamaica soon"
Saleem
May want to close my eyes and go back to sleep this morning, as it looks painful (at least in the pre-market)!
SALEEM:
THanks again for the excelent blog. WHat a joy to get such good analysis unbiased and knowledgeable.
I am looking to double up on CSIQ and maybe some more LDK looks liek a huge sell off coming due to low employment numbers. The Fed Reserve should have lowered the rates by 1/2 %, JMHO.
Peace to all...
Madmax
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