Goldman bogus call of recession in US got a "thumbs down" from markets.......
Market rallied strongly from 230PM until closing bell....closing @ the highest level....how is that for a stupid recession call from a "highly paid employee of GS"
Do you know ...why this GS call was made today......
To TIP the markets below august level and S&P500 support of 1370.....
Then GS would have have declared a "bear market ..by their market technician"...that was plan C......
So Plan A= GS shorts heavily......
So Plan B=GS calls for recession...to tip the market into bear territory...
Then Plan C= GS market technician comes out and declares "bear market"
But someone "smarter than GS plans...decided to maintain their entire position...and actually recommended holding all positions...plus encouraged buying/nibbling @ these levels since yesterday......
Guess who WON...NOT mighty GS but small investors ...who are much SMARTER than GS manipulation......
So...a BIG congratulations to all who KEPT their FAITH in their homework/dd.......
In my portfolio :
AGU UP 63 cents..1st target $73.06 ...2nd target $76.66
MA down $1.27..1st target $207.07...2nd target $217.96
CSIQ down 57 cents...1st target $27.69..2nd target $29.59
LDK down 51 cents..1st target $52.37..2nd target $56.16
AKNS down $2.31..........selling 8 million existing shares sold in the last two shares offering to be offered @ $11++...no increase in Total Outstanding Shares which remains @ 27.89 million shares.....
Lot has been made of two pre-planned sales by CEO totalling 400,000...who holds 8,213,000 shares as reported on jan 2nd,08.....
Insiders of AKNS holds 46% shares...
52 week low is $1.90...so every management team which has worked hard for many years has a right to sell shares in a pre-planned manner submitted to SEC........
AKNS is a very good speculative play for me...which has 6% of my $ allocation.....Troy I hope this satisfies all your concern....
My portfolio was down 1.58%...expecting some gain from my Canadian short....which was down again ...thus reducing my loss...I know this gain around 8.15 PM..after I post this BLOG...
In other stocks :
SOHU was UP $1.18...1st target $54.55..2nd target $55.69..trade rating 95..looks good for Doug $$$
SOLF down $2.08..1st target $37.94...2nd target $39.02...trade rating 95..looks good also $$$
FMCN down 8 cents...1st target $59.28...2nd target $62.18..overall rating 85......
AAPL was among the strongest tech UP $8.15......Bruce must be happy $$$
IFN UP $3.20...Doc is happy.....
EWY UP $1.37..another Doc fav
GOOG UP $21.52......
FSLR UP $3.75
RIMM UP $2.11...
CMED UP 48 cents after hitting all time high of $52.10 on heavy volume of 1.4 million shares.
Thursday COULD be another strong close...as BB will have soothing words for the markets.
Please buy stocks with "conviction"which comes after doing FA & TA analysis......Always be ready for "surprise"which is known to the markets but NOT small investors (AKNS offering)
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
32 comments:
Saleem,
I am thoroughly enjoying trading and having you and your blog along side of me each day. I sincerely mean that THIS IS GREAT! I already have a habit now of opening your page, first thing in the morning and minimize, pull up, minimize, pull up...all day now. I feel very fortunate to have you to defer to when I find myself in a tough situation or need a read on market activity or to discuss trading strategies and honing skills... Thanks Man. Doug... p.s. thanks for the update on SOHU targets.
Hi Saleem,
Nice blog. Hey did anything happen in that last hour to drive the market up? Just a hunch, that the word is out that BB is going to be extra kind to the markets.
Best Regards
Standards
Hi Doug,
Life is a journey....and you do MEET few people who DO leave a mark.
I am glad that I am able to give rational view of what is going ON.
Markets CAN be horrifying @ times...more than what we are ready for.
Saleem
Hi Standards,
Wall street is a "club"..
Sometimes "leaks are deliberate to soothe the markets"
I will take any soothing....
Saleem
Yes Saleem, this is critical stuff we are dealing with and that is money! We both now that its not lust for money for us, but we also know how important and serious it is as it affects all we Love. So, you are helping in one of the most sober and for real situations that we deal with in this life. Food, shelter and clothing do not come free! So, I hope that your Wife knows what you are doing here, selflessly helping what would otherwise be strangers (not anymore LOL) and positively impacting lives in such an important way. The trust that you have been given by many, is something that I hope She can be a part of knowing all about, as Her love for you and the pride I know She must feel for you, would just be that much more enhanced. My Wife Patti, knows you well and Her and my Kids here your name each night at dinner. I am not just blubbering love notes to you and I know how you feel about this topic. I am simply being more effective and sharpening my skills as a trader, which is my livelihood and I feel compelled to point my gratitude out to you. This is not a game and your experience is a huge asset.
Hi Doug,
Thanks for your kind & appreciative words.
Please convey my regards to Patti & love to kids.
To me this BLOG is one family...where all of us are contributing to everybody's financial & emotional well being.
Saleem
Saleem,
Yesterday, you metioned http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/
You got me curious and surfed on that site for a while. Quite interesting. I was wondering if you ever used the Schaeffer's Stock Screener. I am wondering if it's a good tool to get new ideas... The problem is that I can't figure out how to use it to that effect... lol...
To all:
I trade with TD Waterhouse. They have a stock screening tool on their website that run with "2nd Opinion/Briefing.com". Every so often TD has a briefing on-line to discuss technical trading and other trading issues. The last one was on Monday morning, where thet went through the above-mentioned stock screening tool.
For the heck of it, I tried using it Tuesday night for today. The tool selected the following 5 stocks: QMAR, TNE, PRXL, BAX and STJ. Four of five were winners!! Only QMAR was a dog.
I will try it a few more times "on paper" and then if I get simialr positive results, try a $ trade. Hope I get the same success 80% rate. We'll see.............
Bruce
I wonder if this could be a bear/short trap? I just read an interesting take. The idea is that we could rally for the next few weeks, trapping shorts in a big squeeze and sending safe stocks lower as money leaves those and rotates to high growth stocks who get their mojo back. That would be a typical GS scummy move, to announce recession and then go long the market. I know its only speculation and no one can really say but it is interesting. Any thoughts?
Saleem,
For your enjoyment: IH nightly report. Doug...
After two days where the market started higher and then crapped out, the flat to slightly lower futures market on Wednesday was a bit of a relief as the market will often build off of a flat to weaker open. There was some news, but nothing huge either way, at least not enough to drive futures sharply. DuPont raised guidance on strong agriculture products sales and enjoyed its best day in years, though it is still technically challenged (politically correct for 'still in a downtrend'). QLGC upped its guidance and moved higher, but it too has downside issues and is hardly ready to lead the market. MBI (mortgages) cut its dividend by 60%; it really stinks to have to remove basically the last reason anyone would own your stock. ZUMZ in retail was upgraded and posted a modest gain. It has lost over 50% of its value since mid-October. Not a whole lot outside of DD to excite investors.
More news. Oil prices fell (95.67, -0.66) despite plunging inventories (-6.8M versus -800K expected). Oil is holding in the nineties, but it is unable to punch through 100 after its third run at that level in the past two months. Europe shows more sluggishness, with Germany showing a slowing consumer. Thursday we will hear from the Bank of England and what it will do with rates. The UK is slowing as well and the BOE has been the leader in European rate cutting.
Getting back to the market, it did start flat, and that led to a modest early bounce. Once again that could not hold and stocks sold to midmorning, into lunch, and into early afternoon. They were not insignificant losses as NASDAQ gave up 35 points. Looked pretty much status quo, i.e. another selloff. Things changed in the early afternoon as SP500 tested near its March lows and August intraday low. That triggered an end, at least near term, for the selling. Stocks rebounded with a steep, steady climb to the close with NASDAQ rallying 67 points off its low. It could be another whipsaw move, but the indices closed at sessions highs off a test of the next key support. That is a change in the selling attitude and indicates more upside through Thursday and likely into Friday.
TECHNICALLY the intraday action finally took on a more positive, tone, though as noted above, it took until mid-afternoon for the covering to kick in and drive stocks higher on the close. It was not a sea change, but it was a rollback of the recent negative character that saw each rebound attempt squashed as fast as a beetle on a school playground.
INTERNALS: Volume jumped higher once more, pushing further above average. The rebound to positive put a better spin on that increasing trade. Was it accumulation? Look at the breadth. It made it back to 1.4:1 on NYSE and was flat on NASDAQ if you want to be generous. High volume can mean accumulation, but after a nasty selloff, a volume bounce on narrow breadth tells you that the stocks that were hammered on the selling are rebounding on short covering. There is no broad return to long buying, just covering up what as sold until it was bloody. The internals show no change in character, just the kind of action you expect to see in a relief bounce from a selloff.
CHARTS: As noted above, the key to the session was SP500 tapping at the March lows and the August intraday low. That was far enough on this run for the shorts to ring the bell and start covering positions. NASDAQ did likewise to its August low (and a late March interim test, but not its March lows that were another 60 points lower). It was enough to start the rebound, but it still leaves the indices struggling. SP500 retook its longer term trendline, but it and DJ30 are still just below their November lows. NASDAQ has some room to bounce. And a bounce is what it will be given the technical damage and the lack of any change in the factors that drove the market lower.
LEADERSHIP: Not a bad performance for the leaders, especially given that many gave up near support and fell hard the preceding week. Many of the large cap techs that were leaders bounced, but they did not resurrect themselves on the whole. Part of that large cap short covering relief bounce. Other leaders sold off on the day but they managed to recover, e.g. MON, MOS. Yet others, the real leaders, held near support all along and started to rebound in the afternoon as the market recovered. That is what we expected. In itself the session did nothing to ameliorate the eroding leadership seen this week. It is weakened, and how it recovers will tell more about the market's future. Remember, we need to see those that held the line strongly push higher to show us there is buying in leaders outside of just covering up short positions in stocks that were leaders but got taken to the rendering factory.
THE ECONOMY
Mortgage refinancing is up and so are mortgage applications, but don't get fooled.
Bond yields dropped hard the past two weeks and are holding near 3.8% on the 10 year (3.82% close Wednesday). The 30 year yield hit its lowest levels since September 2005. Indeed, that has triggered a surge in refinancing, up 53% for December. Maybe those adjustable mortgages are getting converted thanks to these low rates. Certainly some are, but rates are still not as low as the teaser rates, and thus this drop in yield is not going to solve all mortgage issues.
But what about the new mortgage applications? They surged as well. Must be a lot of new prospective buyers out there ready to buy, buy, buy and end this housing slump. Nope. What we are seeing are multiple applications by the same people. Not all at once, but in series as applications are rejected once, twice, three times . . .
What is going on? Are banks being responsible and turning down bad risks? No. Part of the credit problem is that lenders now don't want to lend. One of the reasons they don't want to lend is because the federal government, in its usual after the damage has been done manner, has called lenders liars, cheats, pirates, profiteers and about any other derogatory name they can muster. You have the Treasury Secretary berating them three months ago. Congress is still threatening, the politicians on the campaign trail are threatening (last night's speeches were an issue catch-all and scared the cr*p out of anyone fearing excessive government intervention.
You can bet the lenders have pulled back, and indeed the numbers are showing it. As usual, the government steps in after the cows are out of the barn and rustled and threatens not the rustlers but the rancher. It has come down hard when the economy needs people to step up and buy houses. This is exactly what we said would happen last summer, and now we are seeing the housing recovery dragging out even when there are willing buyers ready to step in and start mopping up all of that inventory overhang. Hey with rates low, let them borrow just not at ridiculous no money down or interest only notes. Some common sense for crying out loud. We are talking the need for stimulus but we don't do the obvious things, i.e. let willing buyers and sellers hook up and help get an important sector of the economy back on its feet.
The biggest economic story: Bush again turns wimpy on economic stimulus.
The biggest news story of the day was word regarding the economic stimulus the Bush administration is considering. There was no official policy announcement, but the Bush administration indicated that it was, sadly, considering more 'rebates' similar to those it gave away back in 2001. That provided, by optimistic estimates, zero stimulus to the economy. These don't work. In 2001 the money was put in the bank or used to pay off debt. There was no burst of consumption that my at the time democratic congressman said would occur. When people are in trouble and they get a one-time sum of money, they hang onto it. Milton Friedman taught us that.
Way to go President Bush; let's use what DIDN'T work the first time. Love to see the creative, innovative thinking from your administration yet again. Even if you think this is all the democrats will go for, at least aim high and try to get some real incentives included such as tax credits for investment. Some are talking accelerated depreciation, but that doesn't help, not when there is already a large expensing provision on the books. Small corporations and businesses get zero incentive from accelerated depreciation when they can expense $125K already.
There is simply no creativity on taxation from this administration. The 'blue ribbon' panel was a joke because it had impossible parameters to work within, namely the static view of dollar for dollar tax cuts and revenue reduction. That is not what happens in the real world, again as Milton Friedman showed us, but that is the unrealistic framework Bush set for the commission. Thus it was designed to fail before it started. New blood is certainly needed, but many of the choices, despite the Bush administration's shortcomings, are much worse. Maybe electro-shock therapy would help this mind-numbingly predictable administration do something right as it fades into its last year. Problem is, they would probably like it.
THE MARKET
MARKET SENTIMENT
VIX: 24.12; -1.31
VXN: 28.18; -2.59
VXO: 25.76; -0.93
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.16; -0.22. Another close over 1.0, making 5 in recent history. That is helping this rebound find its footing.
Bulls: 52.2%. Falling further after breaking back below the 55% threshold last week (54.9%). Down from 56.50% after a jump up from 53.3% and 49.4% the week before. Didn't make it below 45% (it hit 40.6% on the low for the prior round of selling). It spent 5 weeks above the threshold 55% on the last spike higher. You have to go through the process of wringing out the bulls with a decline of significance, a.k.a. a move into the lower 40's. The theory is that when too many investors or advisors are bullish then most of the money is in the market and there is nothing ready to come in off the sidelines to drive prices higher. On a steady climb from a low of 40.6%, the low for this round. Never made the thirties. Hit 56.7% in June and now it has blown past that. The market peaked about a month later. For reference it bottomed in the summer 2006 near 36%, and 35% is considered bullish.
Bears: 24.5%. Bears are rising with the market's inability to hold a rally, up from 23.1% last week. Improving from 22.4% before that. Fell like a stone from 25.6% the prior week and 27.6% the week before. Down from 29.0% after one week at a higher level, jumping from 26.6% the week prior. Up from 22.2% after bouncing up and down over 20 for several weeks. It is still significantly above the threshold 20% considered bearish. Fell to a low of 19.6% on this round. Bearishness peaked at 37.4% on this move and it fell to 18% in August. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on this run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005).
NASDAQ
Stats: +34.04 points (+1.39%) to close at 2474.55
Volume: 2.895B (+8.41%). Volume jumped again as techs sold off and recovered. Not new long buying, just short covering.
Up Volume: 1.496B (+983.578M)
Down Volume: 1.162B (-929.886M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.07 to 1. The flat breadth on a surge back up that saw a 1.4% gain. The 2% NASDAQ 100 gain shows it was large cap driven and they were slaughtered and were rebounding.
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.38 to 1
New Highs: 53 (-13)
New Lows: 660 (+216). Has hit the level you would associate with a rebound and that is what started on Wednesday.
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
Reached down near the August intraday low and then posted a sharp reversal. Higher volume, positive close; sounds good, but the breadth was crappy as those moving higher were those that were torched. It definitely gives NASDAQ a slingshot effect to continue moving up for now, but this was not the bottom, or at least not the turn that will take the index to a new post-2002 high on this run. It has the old trendline overhead at 2530ish and plenty of resistance from 2550 to 2750. One day at a time.
NASDAQ 100 was powered by the large caps that were blown apart the past week. They held some support at 1900 and reversed off of that. The 200 day SMA is still there at 1989 and other resistance at 2000. Heavy overhead supply that will require a lot more work than this last slip below the 200 day SMA.
SOX showed a doji and closed flat. After 65 poitn thumping it is ready to rebound and test up toward the 10 day EMA.
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: +18.94 points (+1.36%) to close at 1409.13
NYSE Volume: 1.806B (-2.11%). Volume remained strong as SP500 tested key support and rebounded. As noted above and similar to NASDAQ, it was short covering trade.
Up Volume: 994.01M (+632.164M)
Down Volume: 774.475M (-689.33M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.44 to 1. Positive but still weak as the beaten down financials rebounded from the harsh selling.
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.87 to 1
New Highs: 44 (-14)
New Lows: 725 (+207). This is extreme. That is a lot of new lows.
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
The large caps, after collapsing below the 2003/2004 trendline, collapsed further Wednesday, falling close to the March closing lows and the August intraday low (1370). As noted and as expected last night, that was enough for this leg and the shorts started to cover. SP500 recovered the trendline and peeked above its November low on the close. Hardly an affirmation of the prior rally sometime back in 2007 as the large caps, led by the battered financials, rebounded to try and catch some air.
The small caps (+1.05%) reached down to some support at the 360 level and bounced with the rest of the market. The plunge was so sharp, you can barely make out this recovery.
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
The blue chips should get some credit as well. They touched down at the August intraday low, slightly undercutting it on the session low (12,501.76) and recovered 234 points to the close. As noted last night, as soon as you talk about how far it will fall an index is basically at its low for that leg. Sure enough the Dow rebounded off of that support. It will bounce up toward 13,000, maybe even 13,250, but it will head lower after that toward that 11,500 to 11,250 range discussed Tuesday.
Stats: +146.24 points (+1.16%) to close at 12735.31
Volume: 332M shares Wednesday versus 322M shares Tuesday. Stronger volume as it tested lower and bounced, though as with the other indices, hard to call that accumulation.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
THURSDAY
Earnings are starting to emerge. We have seen some pre-announcements to the upside and after hours Wednesday AA posted solid results that boosted shares over $1 after hours. The market is certainly in position to be receptive to good earnings results given the pounding it took in anticipation of a recession and lowered earnings down the road. As noted earlier this week, how the guidance comes out will help. Investors may not believe it 100%, especially looking past Q1, but stronger guidance will help.
Thursday also brings the first December same store sales results and a speech from Bernanke. We are hearing Bernanke is going to be less hawkish or at least less indifferent than his underlings this week. Indeed, Poole was out Wednesday saying 2008 would be a year of rising growth. Even the Fed, however, has curtailed its 2008 projections sharply, and the kind of growth they are showing is hardly inspiring. He even said it was too early to tell if the housing market would push the US into recession. Maybe not housing, but when that is combined with all of the other issues and CEO after CEO now predicting recession, you have to start wondering why the Fed is so damn cautious. On the heels of this week's commentary it is easy to see why investors crave something concrete and meaningful. Bush failed to deliver anything of significance with his 'rebate' hints.
Outside longer term influences, the Wednesday sharp rebound off key levels sets up a further relief move, more of the kind we have been looking for. The market is still fragile and thin-skinned as seen on Tuesday with the AT&T sell off, and thus can still fall victim to bad news such as same store sales or an indifferent Bernanke. Nonetheless we are looking for a continued relief move on Thursday and indeed on into Friday. It might have trouble continuing higher as it moves into the weekend, but another session and one-half or so of sharp rallying will push the indices significantly higher toward resistance levels that will likely truncate the rebound.
We entered some positions Wednesday in solid stocks and will look at some others as well, many of which are on the report already and looking good. We will not be loading the boat on anything, however, simply because the market remains very weak and leadership is under attack. We will use the bounce to get rid of laggards when the rebound looks to be peaking, and we will take some gain as we have been doing all along with stocks that are moving well. We are also looking at stocks that are rebounding from harsh selling, making a list of shorts we can ride downside when this bounce ends along with some more index put options.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2474.55
Resistance:
2535 is the August 2004/April 2005/October 2005/March 2007 up trendline
2550 to 2540 from May/June consolidation and the November lows
The 200 day SMA at 2615
2634.60 is the June peak
The 50 day EMA at 2637
2725 is the July high
2735 is the December intraday high
The March up trendline at 2740
2765 is the November/December/February up trendline
2778 from a July 1999 peak
2834 is the October interim peak
2861.51 is the October peak
Support:
2451 is the August closing low
2386 is the August intraday low
2379 from the October 2006 peak
2370 from the April 2006 peak
2340 from the March 2007 low
S&P 500: Closed at 1409.13
Resistance:
1430 from the August interim lows
1440 - 1437 from January and March peaks
1456 is the June/July 2006 up trendline
1459 is the February peak
1475 from peaks in December 1999 and January 2000
The 50 day EMA at 1468
The 200 day SMA at 1491
1490.72 is the early June closing low and early August peak.
1524 is the December high
1530 to 1535 are the June twin peaks
1534 is the early July high
1539 is the mid-June intraday high
1541 is the early June high
Support:
1406 is the August and November 2007 closing low
1405 is a longer term trendline from the August 2003/September 2004 lows
1374 is the March 2007 closing low
1370 is the August 2007 intraday low
1325 from May 2006 peak prior to the summer 2006 correction
Dow: Closed at 12,735.31
Resistance:
12,743 is the November low
12,786 is the February 2007 peak
12,845 is the August closing low
13,050 to 13,000 range
13,092 is the December low
The 50 day EMA at 13,281
The 200 day SMA at 13,370
The 90 day SMA at 13,479
The early July peak at 13,671
The early June high at 13,676 (closing), 13,692 (intraday)
The mid-June high at 13,689
The August high at 13,696
13,750 is where it stalled in early December
Support:
12,518 is the August intraday low
12,250 from late March 2007 lows
12,050 from the March 2007 low
11,670 is the May 2006 intraday high; 11,642 closing
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
January 8
Pending home sales, November (10:00): -2.6% actual versus -0.8% expected, 0.6% prior
Consumer Credit, November (3:00): $15.4B actual versus $8.5B expected, $2.0B prior (revised from $4.7B). No drop off in the consumer credit as the consumer, for November, remained strong.
January 9
Crude oil inventories (10:30): -6.8M actual versus -800K expected, -4.05M prior
January 10
Initial jobless claims (8:30): 340K expected, 336K prior
Wholesale inventories, November (10:00): 0.4% expected, 0.0% prior
January 11
Export prices, December (8:30): 0.8%
Import prices ex-oil, December (8:30): 0.7%
Trade balance, November (8:30): -$59.5B expected, $-$57.8B prior
Treasury budget, December (2:00): $52.0B expected, $42.0B prior
Hi Frogvest,
I am a speed reader....just read their summary in their email.
Never visit their website.
I get email also from www.thestreet.com scan analyst upgrade/downgrade only.
Also get email on friday only from www.motleyfools.com a weekly list of interesting articles..read most of them.
Saleem
Hi Doug,
Market is never all clear.
That is why taking profit makes so much sense.
Saleem
Thought this might make a good trade for some. It makes sense that it could break out, given Dupont earnings beating expectations. Just a thought. I dont know this stock well and have never traded it.
Play Date: 01/09/2008
TRA (Terra Industries--$46.84; +1.39; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tra.html
EARNINGS: 2-7-08
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. TRA broke higher in late December, clearing a short but nicely formed 7 week base formed using the 50 day EMA (40.50) as support. A nice quick consolidation of the run out of its July to September base. Nice doji with tail on Wednesday held the 18 day EMA (45.55) on the close. Good test and recovery and ready to continue the breakout run.
Volume: 5.857M Avg Volume: 3.546M
BUY POINT: $47.88 Volume=4.5M Target=$57.65 Stop=$44.95
POSITION: TRA CI - Mar. $45c (64 delta) &/or Stock
Two video presentations on how to decide when to get out of a stock. The lesson is : FA and TA when you decide to jump in, TA alone when to get out.
"First Solar shows us that sometimes we work so hard to get into a stock, we forget to get out."
http://www.investors.com/MediaCenter/?MediaID=816&t=V
"Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) teaches us not to wait for the last sell signal before you act."
http://www.investors.com/MediaCenter/?MediaID=820&t=V
taking away the "Uptick Rule" has completely changed the volatility in the markets IMHO. If you look back at the way the market has behaved, the craziness in the market, with wild swings, seems to have started right about then. I still have not found a single reason why this rule was changed, other than to further empower MM's to run over retailers. Can anyone set me straight so that I can better understand why this change was allowed or needed to improve the markets??? Thanks in advance for any comments.
Hi all,
i've been keeping a low profile - staying in my comfort zone mostly as an observer and appreciating the posts...
Don't know what BDI is today, but thought I'd mention that Robert Hsu came out with a sell last night on DRYS after holding it since 117. I know someone owns DSX so the price weakness today may be related...
He also added WBD in Russia.
Wishing you all LOL and peace of mind.
Hi Doug,
Wall street is a club.....
So the market is "For wall street,BY wall stret & OF wall street"
All the rules are made & changed in the interest of those insiders who BENEFIT all the time....
Never ever think that there are CHECKS & BALANCES to protect small investors.....NEVER.....
We are even NOT part of the equation......
So go in the trading PIT....with a FOCUS to make money & RUN.....always !!!
You BLINK...trade goes to a loss....
Saleem
Hi Beatrice,
Nice to see your post.....
I thought you must be busy reading all the interesting market summation & stock picks from IH...
We are here trying to count our equity dwindling bit by bit....
Not a good start for 2008.....
Thanks for your info on DRYS !!
Saleem
HEllo all
GOOD MORNING
WOW what a sell offr
I am hte owner for DSX--I guess the dividend will save me Smile
SX is dropping again and shipping rates are up.
AKNS is GREEN
MADMAX
So Saleem,
The uptick rule is just another tool given to hedgies and Damn the rest?
AKNS looks to be surging this morning....think the sellers reacting to their misinterpretation of CEO stock sales and "impending" dilution through issurance of "new" shares are realizing the errors of their ways and jumping back on board!!
Hi Doug,
Yes....there is such a thing which is known as "privileged class"
And we are NOT....on wall street.
Saleem
Hi Bruce,
Yes...it always pays to do due diligence...
Peter Lynch first rule....KNOW why you bought any stock in the first place...
If buying thesis has NOT changed...then I IGNORE the manipulation....
Yor timing on AKNS was perfect...2nd time.....
Saleem
Hi Madmax,
AKNS is helping all of US.
Saleem
Dear Saleem,
I am 2% plus for 2008, but only thanks to my LARGE CMED Position (it somehow worked like a mini-hedge for my Solar exposure)
Please have a look at my current PF:
and let me know your thoughts, thanks a lot, I "feel" I should have more cash in this CRAZY Market right now)
CMED - 65%
(up big average price USD 25)
LDK - 15%
(down big av.pr. 50.20)
CSIQ - 6%
(down, av.pr. 27.68)
SOLF - 3%
(down, av.pr. 33.05)
AKNS - 3%
down, av. pr. 12.09
CASH 8%
CMED: if you would have CMED in your pf, what would be your target?
Many questions, I know.
Thans again for your great blog!
best wishes from C.R.,
Don Ursulo
SALEEM
WOW we are on a see saw
Up down action today I gues the market is waiting for BBernanke to speek
I bought 500 more of AKNS at $11 so let the fun begin!!!
Hoping for a continued pop up.
What is your guess on interesnt reate cust by the Fed Reserve?
Thanks my friend--peace
Madmax
Hi Urs,
I do not see anything wrong with your portfolio.
Solar is going through a normal pullback NOW in-line with markets.
For CMED I will take profit based on RSI...entering "overbought" over 70 NOW....
$55 is max I see in CMED based on RSI.
Good luck on your decision.
Saleem
Hi Madmax,
Good move to add more AKNS.
Economy is showing credit easing working already based LIBOR & ABCB latest numbers.....
If we see a cut of 50 basis...it will be to ensure NO recesion fear.
Saleem
Hi Urs,
One more thing...
When you do sell CMED try to position in Ag stock like AGU & something like MA....which is nicely placed in growth area.
Start with 100 shares each on the above and keep cash handy..until you feel comfortable with markets.
I am glad you are re-evaluating your PF.
Since your non LDK is small position in other solar...so NOT much to worry..
My cost on LDK is $49.74...
Saleem
Dear Saleem,
Thanks a lot for your valuable comments.
I think I am "married" with CMED.
I just can't let it go :-)
I see a bright future in the next 3-4 years (with constant dividend increases, etc.) As I have a low average price (well, I also was holding it a long time) I can afford “the 8-10% hits” some days. (I know these days will come, when we approach 55-65)
I know that CMED was for you "the perfect Swing Trade of 2007", if I remember well, you did good $ on 22 out of 25 trades with CMED! more than me with holding! grrrr -:)
and very important: you advised your buy/sell in real-time on the board.
I tend to keep one "winner" for 2-3 years (as long as I see nothing wrong with the fundamentals of the company). Rest of my pf I like to move also.
Outlook in General:
I think in 2008 the guidance of the companies will be KEY. Much more important than the earnings result. I hope CMED and LDK will communicate good and clear in regards to GUIDANCE.
best,
Don Ursulo
Hi Urs,
Your decision to keep CMED is based on well thought out strategy & it has worked .
As you are prepared to take 10% hit.....which CMED has a habbit of doing.....you should be OK.
It is all about "comfort level of the person"
Good luck on your solar & CMED focus.
Saleem
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