It is interesting that today markets are down "slightly...& everybody is doing Psycho Analysis as to WHY ????
Markets being down after two days of "huge gain".....is NOT a news worth reporting......
Who said markets should be in "green from open to close on third day also"
We ALL need to understand that "markets are NOT here to fulfil our emotional need of getting euphoric UP move everyday"
As I have repeated so many times......
Nobody can time the markets.......so why try so hard ????
Energy should be dedicated on finding right sectors & right stocks @ compelling price......
But...we would rather whine about markets day IN & day OUT.........
I tried very hard to figure out what was happening with markets since december.....because it was "tumbling daily with TRIPLE digit losses & taking all the support OUT"...@ best we all failed to come UP with a real rational reason.......
Now...we have the wisdom of three day moves since the LOW.........if it IS the-LOW.....
I do NOT know the answer to any of these issues.......
I am continuing to do my due diligence and see LOT of stocks @ attractive prices..including those that I have owned since december.......
This gives me "conviction"..........knowing what is attractive prices...........
In my portfolio :
I bought PCZ...this is among the biggest diversified oil company in Canada..they report on 31st before open.....they have refinery,gas station & exploration projects........my cost $47.25.....
PCZ is trading UP 13 cents ..but I am down 25 cents.....
AGU UP $1.94..
MA down $1.38..
CSIQ is UP 43 cents..
LDK UP $1.16...
AKNS UP 72 cents...
UEX down 7 cents...
AAPL down $2.30....
@11.34 AM the following are green :
CMED,BRCM ( good ER),TSL,ICE,POT,TSO,CTRP,BIDU,LVS,
NMX,VLO,ABX(new high),SPWR(upgrade),FSLR,ISRG,WFR,
AMZN,IFN,DRYS,GOOG,FWLT,RIMM,STP.
Good luck on doing your OWN FA/TA plus tape reading...which builds confidence & conviction......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
21 comments:
Hi Saleem,
Nice to see many of the old leaders take the forefront again. Bidu was a rocket. Once the market takes a firm footing we know where to go.
Good luck.
Standards
Hi Standards,
Markets are in a "repair & basing mode"
Economy is in the midst of fighting negative growth in Q1....
Markets generally looks "ahead six months"
Yes BIDU,GOOG are in vogue again.
Saleem
Hi saleem,
Long time reader of blog. looking to sell ldk around 50 day ma 42.40.
What do you think?
thanks david
Hi David,
Thanks for visiting my BLOG.
Yes generally there is resistance around 50 DMA....but I am holding LDK for long term.
Markets are tough these days....
Do what feels right.
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
I want to give a small psycho babble post. LOL. As I watched CNBC this morning, while the market was up, all of the guests, one after the other was saying buy buy buy. Then a couple of trader Psychologists came on and discussed how to manage emotions in a volatile market. As they were speaking the market was starting to turn. Then in the red, guests were saying selling isnt over... I bought the TWM while the mood analysts were talking @ $82.80. I know that it seems weird, what I am trying to say but I guess I just used the contrary indicator inside. I hope that makes sense. Best wishes. P.S. I hope you know that I am not trying to brag or puff my chest out. I would post a mistake of mine just the same. I was more lucky than anything. But I was prepared to dump it quick if it turned because IH had not entered yet.
Hi Doug,
You are trying everything which makes sense to you.....
Nothing wrong with that.....
Market gives opportunity to those who gets it RIGHT...both UP & DOWN......
You ARE reading the TAPE accurately....for your trade $$$
Saleem
Saleem,
I have been thinking about trades this week and I just realized that the reason I am being a little more effective, is because the improvement of my Overweight position in LDK has raised my confidence and taken some pressure off of my mind. So, it gave me some room to breath and re group. I hope that makes sense.
Hi Doug,
Yes when core position improves...we all feel good...& actually have some DOUGH to show for.....
I initiated RIMM for trade purpose and got AAPL for the same.....
Yes .....when you DO homework yourself...you can TRY many profitable IDEAS....as long as MOST work...you are doing OK....
Saleem
Saleem,
You are spot on with trying to figure out a reason for the market moving the way it does. If someone truly new, they would be a gagillioaire and would be sitting on a tropical island drinking pina coladas, and not worrying about the market.
I was listening to a financial/ stock market show today on the radio. A woman was on there asking many of the questions we ask ourselves everyday....basically how can we time the market to get in and out of the market at the right time? His answer you can't and if you don't have a STRONG stomach, you proabably shouldn't be in the market. I believe you call that CONVICTION.
Hi Bruce,
With experience we all learn to respect...a longer term approach..NOT everyday "torturious analysis"
Markets are extremely unpredictable..then trying to time it with stocks are a losing battle...
I just stay with my own analysis/conviction....whether pundits agree or NOT.
Risk management is the key.
Saleem
The market turned up side down again
Is another Eurpoean selling shares _ Smile
RIMM was up so high today as was BIDU, I am lookinf really hard at AAPL. At this price it is a steel..
My AKNS is doing really fine here as is LDK - How do we spell relief LDK GO.
Madmax
Hi Madmax,
Markets will remain "volatile till march"
When I am NOT confident about markets.....I go in more than 5 preffered position....I am in 7 stocks now.
This is done to be ready whenever any sector goes UP.
Saleem
SALEEM
Fy Friend:
I love the oils--Do not know a thing about PCZ but I like HAL, As J Cramer says, it is King HAL. Also UPL and VLO are 2 good one that I have owned in the past. I guess that you are not comfortable with BS or GS? They have both been recommended by Fast Money. I still like the MA story here it's RSI 47.5 and a price target of $244.
Peace
Madmax
Hi Madmax,
I generally NEVER buy anything on the recommendation of CNBC....
Their agenda is UNKNOWN.....
On top of that they are option trader IN for 1 hour with both calls & puts......
I like to LISTEN to people who are INVESTOR and ACTUALLY KNOW the stock ....a rarity on CNBC...
NO facts just OPINION....
Saleem
thank you I tend to NOT always see behind the curtain. You are so right And they talk so fast so you really can not see their motives or sleigh of hand!
It is hard to get good information BNN is a good source
thanks for your feedback
Madmax
Saleem,
For all those who think they can time the market...even with the use of computer-aided modeling.....please read. Makes me feel a bit better (not my pocketbook though)!
_________________________________
Quant Funds Struggle Again; Woes Blamed On SocGen's UnwindLast update: 1/25/2008 2:08:45 PM
By Kaja Whitehouse
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Quantitative fund managers, who suffered big losses in August, are struggling again. This time, the losses are hitting players of a strategy known as price momentum, which bets winning stocks will continue rising and losing stocks will keep falling. On Wednesday, these strategies experienced their fourth-biggest loss since July 1950, according to a research note from Matthew Rothman, head of Quantitative Equity Strategies at Lehman Brothers. To be sure, the month isn't over and things could turn around for quant investors, who use intricate computer models to dictate when to buy or sell stocks, currencies or other securities. But the losses this month follow a difficult 2007 for the group, and place additional pressure on their already tainted reputation as steady, risk-averse investors who can profit in both up and down markets. "We're feeling we can't catch a break at the moment," Rothman said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires. Hurting quants this week were unexpected tumbles in stocks that momentum players were projecting would continue rising, including Apple Inc. (AAPL), Google Inc. (GOOG) and Sunpower Corp. (SPDW). Stocks they expected to continue falling, meanwhile, suddenly jumped higher, including Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK), MBIA Inc. (MBI) and Ryland Group Inc. (RYL). Price momentum strategies, which rely on things like analysts' earnings guidance to make bets, lost 10.3% over Tuesday and Wednesday alone, including "a hugely bad day on Wednesday when it lost 6.4%," said Rothman, who pointed to the liquidations at French bank Societe Generale (SCGLY), triggered by a rogue trader, as "a probable precipitating source." "To put Wednesday's loss in context, there have only been six days since July 1950 with greater underperformance by momentum, all of which were in 2001 as the Internet bubble was popping," he said. Earlier this week, Societe Generale, also known as SocGen, said a 31-year-old trader made unauthorized bets that resulted in losses of $7.2 billion.
Hi Bruce,
I firmly believe that small investors with long term view..in a diversified mode...OUTPERFORMS...any hot shot 31 year old Quant genius....over 3 year period.
We will hear more of these REASONS why there is tremendous liquidation going ON..in the market..NOT recession...imho
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
sold TWM for $4 gain. Had to sell because it was partially on margin and I didn't want that exposure over the weekend. I'm Still long MLNM and LDK.
Have a great weekend everyone!
Hi Doug,
Two profitable trade in one day...is a sign of GENIUS...
Especially on 171 dow DOWN day...
Enjoy your weekend.....
You have earned IT...the old fashioned way...by hardwork & conviction $$$
Saleem
Saleem,
Thanks so much for kind words. Here is the funny part, I bought and sold TWM without IH being in it and 5 minutes after I sold, IH bought it. LOL. Go figure. If I would have known they were in the trade, I may have stayed in the trade because I could then use their guidance. Oh well, Im not complaining since I made a little dough and I would not have gotten rest over the weekend because of margin exposure, so it all worked out fine. I probably will re enter TWM on Monday if tape still looks gloomy. It was funny to watch CNBC start the morning with buy buy buy and then the afternoon guests were all bear bear bear. Pretty sickening. I will be looking forward to your weekend posts. Best wishes.
Saleem this is worth a read --It is long but full of ideas:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,530791-4,00.html
Madmax
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