Markets behaved extremely well today..in spite of new homes number !!!!
Sector rotation is happening......
Some of the beaten down sectors are rebounding in a big way......financials,home builders & retail are in vogue.....
This sector should be considered after a "normal pullback"
Many AH ER are being taken as negative either due to miss by revenue/EPS or guidance which is below....to name a few which is being hit HARD are VMW,ZRAN,SNDK......
In my portfolio :
AGU UP $2.52..rating 35/30.. target $66.14
MA down $4.43..rating 45/40..target $200.57
CSIQ down $1.11..rating 75/100..target $22.87
LDK down 46 cents..rating 65/55..target $49.53
AKNS down 42 cents..Not rated.....
UEX.TO down 4 cents..Not rated...
AAPL unchanged..rating 90/90... target $140.94...
PCZ (PCA.TO) UP 45 cents ( in Toronto)..rating 75/45...target $50.33...
Other stocks :
FMCN 55/45..target $52.93.....
Agriculture is on fire again...POT,BG,MOS & AGU.....
RIMM,CMED,ISRG staying strong......
MELI put on fire down $12......
NYX,NDAQ,OXPS strong....
FSLR,WFR bucking the downtrend in most solar stocks.....
Please do your OWN due diligence.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
25 comments:
Saleem & others, brutal day, paper loss on VMW AH, what do you think, will it move up anytime soon?
I was worried about INTC & AAPL action and did a mistake by not selling during the day....
Saleem,
I also noticed some of the homebuilders and financials have done well lately. However, I would be very cautious, as I do not think all the bad news is known much less factored into the market. I read a Zack's advisory today (sorry I cannot link it) that mentioned the positive increases in share prices of financial and homebuilders recently. Zacks believes NOW would be a good time, if you were LUCKY enough to have been in those stock, to SELL into the buying, due to the factors I mentioned above (impending additional BAD news).
JMO.
Hi Troy,
When any company misses Sales by $5 million in a Q...it IS a big miss.
I personally have a tendency to move on & put money to work in a better stock.
I will NOT recommend averaging down either....I do NOT see any catalyst in VMW in short term.
MSFT is on its tail..alongwith CTRX & ORCL...
Stocks should be viewed on its merit only......
I tend to be extremely unemotional about stocks...if it is NOT making money for me...I sell in a heartbeat.
I am also unemotional in locking profit also.
Saleem
Hi Bruce,
Thanks for quoting Zacks.....
I will take a look @ this sector after the next bad news pullback.
Many sectors are basing nicely & moving UP.....
Saleem
Troy,
I sincerely feel your pain...as you know I am a holder of AAPL...I need say no more.
I at one time owned VMW and sold it a while back for around $90. At that time the market was starting to soften but it was still bullish. The times have changed...it is now bearish...any stock that does not provide stellar guidance is trashed.
....as to your question..
To be honest with you, I would not look for a move up in share price "anytime soon" as VMW's P/E even with the 25%+ haircut is still very high and may be open to further attack by the shorts.
Just my opinion.
Hi Saleem,
didn't do much today. Bought QID and sold before it went lower than my buy point, so basically break even. Added VVUS for a trade and hopefully can turn it this week for a little $. MLNM finally got off the 50 EMA and started to move a little. I have been pretty patient with that one. LDK holding long. Thats the story. LOL. Best wishes to all. Troy, sorry about VMW.
TROY
Not to beet a dead horse-but-Fast Money said VMW was not a good bet.
But what do they know. I am so sorry
Good luck
Peace
Madmax
Hi Doug,
Someday not doing much...is better than doing wrong things.
GWB speech was very conciliatory and talked about controlling greenhouse issues.
Alternative energy was also a focus.
Saleem
Yes, for a last year in the office President, otherwise known as a lame duck, at least he was effective in delivering an Alt. Energy directive which is very important. Hopefully the Senate will get the stimulus package through ASAP. I wonder what direction GS is going to take the market on Fed cut Wednesday? LOL.
Hi Doug,
GS KNOWS "not to against the technicals of the market"
We are coming off the bottom in the markets.......
Trend will remain UP for a while imho....
Saleem
Good Morning all
Look like we will have a positive opening.
Hurray
Have a great day every one
Madmax
Hi Saleem,
Scottrade (my online broker) is down right now. Uhgggg! I am hopeful that they will have it back up and running before the bell. I feel naked!!! I see that LDK is flexing its muscle this morning in pre market. Good luck today with all of your positions. Doug...
DOUG
I just switched from Scottrade
I could not take the down time any longer. They screw up to often!
I went to Charles Schwab so far it is GREAT!!!!
Madmax
Hi Madmax,
Yes ....green is the colour...try to get used to it.....
Saleem
Hi Doug,
I am sure Scottrade has 1800 to serve your needs......
When volume swells ....TDWaterhouse gets slow in Toronto also......and gone few times for 30 minutes.....
Go Long...is the-mantra $$$
Saleem
Thats funny Saleem. LOL... Go long, when you have no choice. I guess this could be a test of conviction? LOL. I get a chance to really see just how strong my conviction is. LOL... Hi Madmax, Yes Scottrade does have too many down times. Thanks for the Schwab info as I may be leaving soon as well. Best of luck to all today. I like the color of green for a change.
Saleem and others,
should I sell VMW or just wait for the bounce or hold long term...
Hi Troy,
Nothing has changed as per our analysis yesterday on VMW.
Based on everything I have analyzed....VMW is a "strong sell".
You need to stop the bleeding ASAP...
Important rule of investing :
Preserve capital....
When Fundamentals CHANGE in a negative direction...SELL is the only word...nothing else...
Based on everything I have learned VMW fundamentals have gone downhill.....
VMW IS heading towards $40.....imho
I am being BLUNT..because I FEEL for you.....
Saleem
saleem, i appreciate your feedback, but it only missed rev by 5 mil and they are still growing 50 yoy...
i highly appreciate your guidance,
Apple's Deferred Revenues Revisited: This Was a Blow-Out Quarter
posted on: January 28, 2008 | about stocks: AAPL Print Email This quarter, Apple's (AAPL) earnings failed to impress investors (see conference call transcript). Wall Street promptly hurled it off a cliff...
But, wait. What if I told you that Apple forgot to enter 2 of the 2.3 million phones it sold this quarter, that they just skipped them, took the dough, are using it and just left it plain - well- out of the net income? Well, they did. They "deferred" them.
Apple's earnings are far more impressive when you consider that their iPhone and iTV numbers are largely not entered in when they are sold. Rather, Apple stretches the revenues out over a two year period, only entering 1/8 of them each quarter. They have been doing this for a while with Applecare, a product which makes sense to add to net income slowly over time as it is a two to three year service that incurs cost over time. iPhones and iTVs, however are already purchased; the cost of making and selling them is largely over.
Apple instead spreads out their earnings excruciatingly slowly. Only a small fraction of the earnings of the 2.3 million iPhones sold this quarter get seen as earnings on the quarterly statement. The rest are part of the "deferred revenues". In all practical terms, there is nothing deferred about them. The moneys have been received by Apple.
Below are listed the phenomenal growth of these hidden babies over the last series of quarters (click table to enlarge):
This means that over the next two years, most of 3.288 billion dollars of deferred revenues will drop effortlessly to the bottom line. If Apple decided, quite legitimately, it could have taken those 816 million dollars as earnings this last quarter. Instead of 1.58 billion dollars, it easily could have logged 1.58 + 0.816, or 2.396 billion dollars, or about $2.65 a share. If they had reported that number -- $2.65 a share -- which is real net income earned, the stock price would be up to 230 rather than dropping to 130. The earnings are there. They are real. They will be logged in over the next 7 quarters. The street needs to understand that Apple is reporting their earnings differently than most other companies and by doing so their explosive growth is vastly understated. There is nothing disappointing about this quarter. Au contraire, it is a blow-out, beyond anything Apple has yet produced and, as this keeps happening, as the deferreds keep accruing, it's going to be a beautiful next couple of years.
Disclosure: Author has a long position in AAPL
AAPL new this is great!!$$$
Madmax
DOUG
FAST MONEY says sell!
I got to believe in them once in a while, they get it right
Good Luck
Madmax
Hi Troy,
Never go with headlines on VMW or any other stock....
Here is the details...which you should evaluate from :
They are predicting decelerating growth of 50% yoy....BUT BUT BUT..they are also saying that 1st half will have higher yoy growth....say 55%..and saying 2nd half will be SLOWER due to competition...so we MAY see growth of only 35% for 2nd half...a major deceleration......
Also their EPS will be under severe presurre because of competition...so they MAY earn lot less than current estimates.....
Why would you like to IGNORE important NEGATIVE changes in VMW???
Saleem
Mad,
Did you mean Troy with VMW? I hold LDK, MLNM and VVUS. Thanks.
DOUG
I am sorry, my bad....
Did Soctrtade come back on line??
IF not, how are you tracking your stocks?
Please have a great day
Madmax
Hi Mad,
I am up and running now, thank Heavens. I hate that feeling, when you have your money on the line but it is out of your control. I know we have all experienced that before. No fun. Thanks for asking.
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