Markets are "calm"...after big gains on wed......
Market has the feel of stability....
Housing 40 years price decline did NOT put too much dent....
Jobless claims are also in "non recessionary mode"
Friday close will be more of an indication of how comfortable investors are with this market....
In my portfolio :
I added 18% more CSIQ @ open...my cost moved down to $27.80..ouch !!
I sold RIMM to book a gain of $7.15 per share..not bad for 1 day work.....need trades like this to build my portfolio & equity.....
I bought AAPL @ $134.88..but it went down to $132.50 after my purchase....
So my portfolio is :
AAPL,AGU,AKNS,CSIQ,LDK,UEX.TO & MA......
MA down $6.26 .....
AGU UP $ 3.32......
CSIQ UP 25 cents..
LDK UP 55 cents
AKNS down 8 cents
UEX UP 18 cents
AAPL down $3.95 UP 24 cents for me....
@ 11.28 AM the following are green :
RIMM,CMED,SOHU,BRCM,DELL,SNDK,SIRF,BX,ICE,YHOO,
POT ( good ER),TSO,CTRP,BIDU,NVDA,NYX,NMX,VLO,ABX,
ISRG,AMZN,DRYS,GOOG,FWLT,FMCN,STX,LRCX,GRMN.
Most techs are UP today from oversold condition.....
Good luck for rest of the day.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
30 comments:
SALEEM
congradulations on sale of RIMM
In this market to capture that kind of profit --fantastic I say..
What is it with MA today? LDK is strong again as is AGU. I think AAPL will be good to you.
Madmax
Mad,
If you don't mind me chiming in on MA, rumors of further Bank tightening could cause the Banks not to offer as many credit cards which could slow MA growth. I think its bull^*&% but the MM's might be keeping the fear up...I am interested in Saleems answer to your question, for sure.
Hi Doug & Madmax,
Credit cards are the biggest source of profit for banks....
Just check the interest rates on your cards......
When interest rates are going down.....credit cards rates are staying the-same......guess what..they will issue more cards to increase their shrinking profit from homeowners.....
In tough times...people use their credit cards MORE not LESS......
They are defaulting on their mortgages..because there is NO equity in house.....
Credit cards keeps "struggling families going..by spending & paying Min due".
Credit cards are prestige point in emerging markets and use is increasing strongly..where MA does 50% of business...think IBM last ER.
Saleem
Ouch, SPWR got hit hard this morning. However, the reports suggest that Q3 and Q4 will be brighter and that Poly supply is the main constraint. This would play into my theory that we've got a great second half of the year to look forward to. Like AAPL, they guided lower for Q1 and got punished. However, I won't be surprised to see them guide higher when they announce Q2 later this year. Time will tell!
Also, it was nice to see the Chinese solars hold up in light of SPWR's Q1 outlook. CSIQ, LDK, TSL and STP are all up as I type. Could one of these be the next MSFT! Or perhaps it will be JASO.
Have a good day,
IBD Long
PS Thinking about moving from CMED to POT for long term play. Thoughts?
DOUGH and SLAEEM: Hello I cut and pasted this from the MA MB.
MasterCard United States business in 2008
1)32+ trailing P/E ratio, 28 forward P/E. We are entering a recession and this ratio will be accentuated by slowed earnings.
2) MasterCard mercy of banks (credit card issuers). MasterCard is only the name on the plastic credit card and generates revenue by charging fees for charges made. Not only is spending slowing, but issuing banks (such as Bank of America, Capital One, American Express) have reported rising delinquencies. THEY WILL CUT BACK credit card ISSUING & LENDING. Although MasterCard does NOT LEND, it is AT THE MERCY OF B OF A, CITI, and its other card issuers.
3) At least in the United States, credit card use is not new. The “paper to plastic” transition has been evolving for years in the U.S. This growth was further accentuated by “easy money”, or relaxed lending standards. It was bolstered by rising housing prices which allowed people to take lines of credit and consume; refinancing their home loans. This essentially made people feel and appear wealthier than they were. This will now effectively reverse as banks take on stricter lending standards due to rising defaults while severely lower real estate and home prices will reduce American’s propensity to spend in the foreseeable future. Thus, in the United States there should be a slowing in the amount of credit cards issued and ultimately the credit extended to consumers.
MasterCard Earnings 2007 Fourth Quarter Earnings
MasterCard has continued to grow rapidly since their IPO in May of 2006. Earnings and valuation expectations are set very high. From what is known of the U.S. economy in the MA 4th quarter ending Dec. 31, 2007, I don't believe the 4th quarter they report on January 31st, 2008 will meet expectations (70 cents per share EPS).
Guidance—Forward Looking
As unemployment rises and housing prices inevitably fall further, the American consumer will spend less. The United States is affecting and will continue to drag down certain markets and economies abroad. For the better part of 2008 and possibly longer, the United States will be in a recession.
Contrary to what many people believe, decreases in consumer spending rarely follow rising unemployment. Rather, the opposite is true. As consumer spending decreases, unemployment rises. This happens because as a company’s investments decline, fewer employees are needed. Recently reported figures reflect the largest unemployment increase in over a decade. This would suggest that spending is likely to decrease further in the near future. Banks are being pinched by this economical downturn coupled with rising defaults on credit cards. They will issue fewer cards this year, negatively impacting MasterCard.
Hi IBD,
When I try to decide which stock to keep..I TRY to project where that stock will go in next 30 days...an analysis of further UPSIDE.....
I see POT has much more POTENTIAL in the next 30 days....FWIW
Yes it is nice to see other Solar keeping their COOL.
Yes ..I do like JASO @ current levels..
Saleem
Any thoughts on Seed? Potash's comments are driving the ag stocks but Seed isn't budging. Pot says "expanding world demand has depleted grain inventory." Does anyone know whether Seed is making any money? Is Seed a buy in here. Appreciate your thoughts Saleem and anyone else's who knows the co.
Congratulations on AGU Saleem. Hope it flies to 75 soon.
Beatrice
PS Still can't figure out why I can't send message with my account.
Looks like Seed started moving while I wrote the last message. Might be worth a trade in here.
B
Hi Beatrice,
SEED to earn 0 cents by 12/08 which has been revised down from 50 cents few days ago..???
I have no idea why this revision took place while sales are expected to go UP 181.2%...
All these numbers are as per yahoo finance......
Saleem
Thanks Saleem. I'll look around and see if I can find out more about projected earnings.
Beatrice
Betrice---This is form IBD I hope it helps ya!
©2008 Investor's Business Daily
Stock: Origin Agritech Limited
Symbol:
Symbol Lookup Help
Current Price: $8.41
Exchange: NMS
Industry Group: Agricultural Operations
Overall Rating: (76 = B-)
Peace
Madmax
Take a look at CEL. Has an 8%+ yield and is the Israeli tel com service. It's been really steady and hasn't bounced yet since it sold down from 30-32. Sold it earlier at 32 and just bought in again this morning. With more rate cuts coming, it should go back up to low 30's at least.
Hsu has a buy on it under 35.
b
HELLO Beatrice:
yes much better rating thei is a keeper: I liek the dividend gives it a floor...
©2008 Investor's Business Daily
Stock: Cellcom Israel Ltd
Symbol:
Symbol Lookup Help
Current Price: $29.20
Exchange: NYSE
Industry Group: Telecom-Wireless Svcs
Earnings Per Share (EPS) Rating Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating Industry Group Relative Strength (Grp RS) Rating Sales + Profit Margins + ROE (SMR) Rating Accumulation/ Distribution (Acc/Dis) Rating
86 97 A+ A C
THis appears to be a strong stock I do not follow it.
Madmax
Politicians make me want to hurl!!! Pat each other on the back over a piece of &*(% incentive package, that serves them for photo opps more than it helps the economy...
I just realized how negative my last post came off. Sorry. I guess I shouldnt hold back in the future. LOL...
Hi Doug,
After reading the preliminary deal. I feel the same way. I work too hard, earn too high a salary and pay too much in taxes to qualify for any rebate. Isn't that funny?
Anyway, good luck on your trades $$$$
Standards
Great points Standard. Tis the day of Robin Hood. LOL...
Hello Doug:
WELL I guess that I am the poor boy sice i barely qualify--Smile - now that I hae retired 61 yr old my income is way down. SO I will something--Beer I guess no Chanpaige.
The rebates would phase out gradually for individuals whose income exceeds $75,000 and couples with incomes above $150,000, aides said. Individuals with incomes up to $87,000 and couples up to $174,000 would get partial rebates. The caps are higher for those with children.
The agreement left some lawmakers in both parties with a bitter taste, complaining that their leaders had sacrificed too much in the interest of striking a deal. Many senior Democrats were particularly upset that the package omitted the unemployment extension.
Hi All,
Bought MKL 100 @432 Long investment.
Standards
Hi Mad,
I just wanted the $600/$1200 that was originally leaked. It was another poor choice to undercut the "already thought" amount. IMO.
Hi all,
Nice finish today. Strong. No massive selling into the rally. Another rate cut of .50 could do wonders.
Standards
Saleem,
At what price do you plan to take profits on AAPL?
I bought today also and may follow your lead.
B
Madmax and others,
Thanks alot of the IBD material.
Could you post TKC (another Hsu choice.)
Yesterday he did a conference call and talked about his picks. Teva, FCSX, AEM, MOS, STP (no more than 5% of portfolio), LFC, CHL. FCSX might be a buy again here into a rally. Down from peak of 53 after it announced earnings a couple of weeks ago.
AEM was written up in Barron's last week (very bullish.)
According to Hsu Yuan to appreciate 7% next year, peg ratio of Hong Kong shares lower than S&P with valuation of 21x earnings. What convinced me that China will do well vs. US is the appreciation in the yuan vs the depreciation of the $. They continue to raise interest rates to slow economy, but even with that growth should be 9% plus vs our growth of minus something. He thinks that as Chinese companies start to report it will become apparent that the translation into US dollars will get better and better due to depreciation of yuan. Makes sense to me. Still, lots of volatility in shares...
b
oops---I meant appreciation of yuan in last post.
Hi Beatrice,
My trading strategy is based on gain for two day...which really means for AAPL friday gain plus mid-day gain on monday.....
With AAPL...$ amount is not important as it is beaten to the pulp.....
So if AAPL goes UP $8 on friday and another $4 on monday...I like to trade out....
Saleem
Saleem,
Thanks for the thoughts regarding CMED vs POT.
IBM Long
Beatrice:
Looked up TKC:
Great earnings-It is not the leader or best of breed, Yo will have to do more research however ab A rating is a good rating:
Turkcell Ilet Hizme Adr
Symbol:
Current Price: $24.49
Exchange: NYSE
Industry Group: Telecom-Wireless Svcs Overall Rating: (94 = A)
SmartSelect® Corporate Ratings
Earnings Per Share (EPS) Rating Relative Price Strength (RS) Rating Industry Group Relative Strength (Grp RS) Rating Sales + Profit Margins + ROE (SMR) Rating Accumulation/ Distribution (Acc/Dis) Rating
97 96 A+ A D-
As always Good luck
Madmax
Saleem,
You had a fantastic day! Congrats!!!!
I hope to get back into the swing soon, as I've been operating in a "bass ackard" mode since the end of 2007, selling when I should be buying and buying when I should be selling.
My current position is 50% AAPL and 50% Cash.....to add insult to injury. I am -1.80% from 1/1/07 through today. Lost my nice 2007 profit. Very aggravating!! ....but as Arnold Schwarzeneger said "I'll be back!"
Hi Bruce,
Do NOT look back.....
Look AHEAD !!!
Treat friday as the first day of your investing...with all the experience you have accumulated...
Saleem
Muchas Gracias, Saleem!
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