Markets revisited lows today & dipping slight below.......
After making a solid retest of support...we saw a "text book DOUBLE BOTTOM"
We moved UP sharply on HUGE volume.......
All of these are technical definition of a market which washed out the most optimistic BULL...
Markets went LOWER than any predictions ...based on previous support.....
NONE of the "support held up in this frenzied selling"
Very few traders called this market "downdraft" with any accuracy......
It is always "looking @ the chart after the fact"..on a daily basis......
After 10% correction...I reverted to my FA conviction and waited with all my position for the "freefall to be over"...It always ends...but when & where Nobody can tell.......
I know..it has taken a huge financial & emotional toll on everyone......including me......
The only difference is that I believed in my FA 100%...so had very HIGH comfort level with all my position.......
So...what have we learned from January of 08 SWOON ?????
It all depends on the individuals.......
Some need to go through these "horrendous correction to LEARN...but others do NOT go to the drawing board to DO anything different ???
I sincerely hope...that you all will come out with some understanding of the mechanism of US markets...which is "hedge fund driven @ all times "whether it is going UP or DOWN......so it exaggerates both moves.......
In my portfolio :
AGU down $1.57..rating 100/85.. 1st target $59.10
AKNS Unchanged..not rated
CSIQ down $1.06..rating 100/100... 1st target $19.17
LDK UP $1.04...rating 100/65..1st target $40.63
MA UP $10.42..rating 50/30..1st target $197.92
RIMM UP $3.15 (for me)..rating 100/85..1st target $98.58
UEX.TO UP 5 cents..not rated www.stockcharts.com target $19.75
In other BARGAIN stocks :
F ..rating 60/30..1st target $6.64 ( reports thursday)
BX..rating 35/45..1st target $21.56....
Most financials including XLF were UP huge......
Most techs recovered from their LOWS..including AAPL,DELL,CSCO,MSFT (reports AH thursday).....
With today's HUGE UP move...it is NOT critical that we have another day of UP move.....
Conviction is one word..which you must develop based on your OWN FA/TA plus tape....
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
18 comments:
Hi Saleem,
I have been researching global Solar growth expectations and it is incredible to see how promising the future is for this technology. It is almost impossible to find any serious source for information, that is bearish on solar growth. I am even more confident about LDK. Thanks for getting me to consider "conviction" more deeply and helping me to understand how to apply it.
SALEEM thanks for staying the course nad keeping me on it too. I wavered several times. I am so trhilled ofr your picks have servived and done well: Hurray for the team....
MA and RIMM and AAPL came back so STRONG! Where do ya think MA wil end up tommorrow? Break $200??
SMile and Peace
Madmax
Hi Doug,
I am glad that you are doing lot of research in solar.
I definitely get my conviction from reading everything about the stocks I own & want to own.....
I also get my new ideas from "thinking outside the box"
Popular theory never makes you serious money.
Saleem
Hi Saleem,
I followed your lead and bought RIMM...it had a nice move upward toward the end of the day. Question: What did you see that caused you to buy...was it a look at the support level? After AAPL got slammed all morning long, how did you summon the courage to get back into Tech stocks? And one other question..are you going to follow your earlier advice and sell into this rally or will you hold RIMM until it meets some specfic price?
Thanks in advance,
Ken
Hi Madmax,
MA is a very good stock..for this rally....
Guess why it went UP so much today....
Because it is linked with financial sector......
We just have to let it run...and see where it goes....
Prediction is tough to make after such a huge runup today.....
I am glad that you just wavered but did NOT sell...
Saleem
Hi Ken,
As you know I follow tape very closely...
RIMM was behaving better than other techs for two days....also it held support @ $80 area day before in Toronto....on 605 down day....
Also RIMM was oversold....
Oppenheimer also upgraded two days ago with outperform with $115 target on friday...
Put it all in the mix.....so you have a strong buy.....
About selling...I will see how far rebound goes..$98 is a tempting number to sell......
Every strong stock is a buy @ certain price...irrespective of sector focus....
I am glad ..you bought RIMM....
Saleem
Dear Saleem,
Thanks for all your work on the Blog on these difficult days.
Today: What a Rally! Down and UP, both directions in a way that I can't figure out.
I think I am getting to old for this market :-)
I hope we saw the bottom today. I am getting tired of reading in the morning:
” U.S. stock index futures shows that Wall Street is poised to fall!”
I need 10 points “up” each on LDK and CMED and I am even again for the year :-)
Hey, I am a optimist!
I know that both will "catch-up" sooner or later, but for sure later. I feel very comfortable to
have them in my pf.
Talking of CMED: Something else I did not figure out today:
how come CMED did not participate in the late Rally? should have least be neutral for the day?
Is there something wrong with CMED-Tape today that I don't see?
Thanks for your feedback or from somebody else on the board.
best wishes from the sunny Tropics in C.R.,
Don Ursulo
Hi all,
Big solar player reporting earnings in the morning First Solar? Should be good.
Don,
CMED does its own thing, not tied to the market. Not sure why? Had a nice breakout a few weeks ago. I will buy more if it dips lower.
Standards
What an amazing spread today between the highs and lows!
This is truly fantastic stuff. I heard a guest on the nightly business report say tonight that in 40 years he has never seen anything like this. Welcome to investing in 2008! Also, Hillary Cramer (AoL Financial Strategist) pumped solar on NBR tonight (SPWR and FSLR). That was nice to see.
Right now is a time to be strong and to understand and have conviction for what you own and/or plan to buy. I truly believe that there is a silver lining to this cloud on the back end of 2008.
Saleem, I've been following your blog for some time now and I really like the way you summarize the days action. Thank you!
Hi Urs,
No..you are NOT getting old..you are WISER to have kept faith in your portfolio.
CMED is among the few stock...which did NOT crater in this freefall.
SPWR reports this AM....should be good for all solar stocks.
Markets are OK NOW...try to have some FUN with SUN.....
Saleem
Hi IBD,
Thanks for your appreciation of my BLOG content & wrapup.
This was NO ordinary correction...I am glad that some of US ..stayed the-course.
I am sure we are looking for smoother days mostly !!!
No more DAILY torture...
Sun is shining on Solar !!!
Saleem
Good morning Saleem,
On the yahoo finance page, there is an article this morning on Alt-energy stocks, specifically Solar. They call FSLR overvalued and LDK undervalued... Just in case you didn't see it, I thought that I would point it out for your perusal. Best wishes.
SPWR got kicked in the teeth this morning as it 4Q profit decreased 57% from prior year. May have a effect on other SOLAR stocks this morning...this afternoon who knows.
P.S. the article seems to have left the home page so here is the link to the article for Solars:
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/greeninvestor/62952;_ylt=AgA.mLPShjQ2TiAusIvyieW7YWsA
Hi Doug,
Thanks for the link & info....
Do you ever wonder WHY ..I highlighted many times the PE of SPWR,FSLR vs LDK & CSIQ.....
I am sure I have used the word Undervalued for LDK many times...
Nice to see some print giant are agreeing with my thesis.
In the end ...it is a stockpickers market....
always has always will be !!!
Sounds like a beatles song !!!
Saleem
Hi Bruce,
SPWR deserves to be down.....based on ER....
Other high PE solar will follow ...
Undervalued will be less impacted...I hope !!!
Saleem
Saleem,
sold FWLT for $10 profit per share. Just bought MA for $189.21. Come on MA! LOL... AGU kicking some butt for you this morning. Looking good...
Hi Doug,
There is "no fragrance better than money....smell good !!
Great move on FWLT.....
MA is a good bet.....
Good luck !!!
Saleem
Post a Comment