Markets "shocked most investors & traders with the intensity of relentless selling"....
Selling continued right until closing bell........
Declining volume on NYSE was 14.50 to 1..while NASDAQ was 14.81 to 1.....
New 52 week lows were 480 on NYSE & 449 on NASDAQ......
Why I am highlighting these numbers........????
Because along with Beatrice & many readers of this BLOG are wondering about the market....
To understand Economy or Stocks ....you must go to "fundamental questions...NOT CHARTS"
Charts are recording PAST tape action or TRENDS..........
Fundamentals answers or explain future troubles which MAY or MAY NOT lie ahead.......
So what is stock market...or more better ....what stock market has been trying to articulate in the past 5 months........
In my "humble analysis"...markets are trying to say the following :
-Sub-prime mess is bigger than what most decision makers think......
-Housing has lot more "downside than what Mr Poulson was thinking"
-Because of housing Consumers are feeling the pinch......
-High Oil is affecting heating/travelling & other discretionary activity....thus affecting economy...
Market is telling Fed...to get OFF the couch & hustle towards "serious solutions"
In markets opinion Fed "does NOT have a real handle on all aspect of economic stress"
Market gave a "last warning to fed today to get the solutions going or else"...based on anaemic job growth...which is technically hovering on job loss.......
So......are we going to go in bear market......I think NOT !!!!
Why ?.....
Because today Jobs report confirmed that we are entering "no growth as of December".....so Fed has to be aggressive.... to kick start SOLUTIONS to all the lingering issues as listed above...
Yes !!!
Fed is NOT dumb enough..NOT to take today's job report & market reaction in a "business as usual fashion"......
I am expecting Fed to be more pro-active as of Monday AM.......
These problems are unique...so it is taking Fed a long long time to try different solutions to a very serious economic challenges...which is "seriously hurting economy & confidence"
This is NOT a worldwide problem...it is US centric double whammy of housing & credit squeeze...
So .....I say we will come out of current SLUMP in next 2 Q with everything in-tact....
Slowdown yes...recession maybe for 1 Q......which is Q1.........
Q3 & Q4 will show growth AGAIN !!!!
Now more relevant question is .......
What about the markets ?????
If we get an action from fed before open on Monday.......
Then we have already seen the LOW !!!!!
But if fed does NOT act Monday before open........
Then we will drop further @ open and will test the recent "support on charts....where we are hanging very close by "
It is OK to breach the support and even close below our famous 1400 or 1380 on S&P....but we will build another support from there...and will "creep UP"
So...how do I position in this kind of environment.......
Always looking for sectors which has performed well recently.....like Solar & Ag......and position aggressively in those sectors.......
Now.....most of you will NOT agree with my "simplistic take on everything stated/explained above....."
So...what should you DO.......
Do nothing but WAIT..."till your comfort level is high enough"........
Nothing is "more important than being comfortable with your hard earned money being deployed anywhere"
See ......that was EASY !!!!
My portfolio is :
BIDU,CSIQ,LDK,MA,AGU & AKNS......
Today my portfolio was down 3.8% thanks to my Canadian $ short which gave me 1.1%.....
For the week I was down 5.11 % again thanks to my Canadian $ short...which worked 3 out of 4 days gave me 1.9 % for the week.......
In my CAD short I am UP 101.7% in equity since Nov 7th 2007......not bad for an eternal OPTIMIST to be short Canadian $ and making serious money.....you did NOT hear something like this on CNBC...ever !!!!
By Saturday 10AM ...I will post a list of technically weak/strong & momentum stocks !!!
Please follow your own game plan and do your OWN due diligence.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
10 comments:
Saleem,
I just came off the Sprott Asset website and there was a write up on a new stock that trades on the TSX with a ticker VNP ot 5N Plus, Inc. Although it has a pink listing for US traders, it has not begun to trade yet. It's biggest client is FSLR and it supplies specialty formulated metals to create the solar panels. The comment from Sprott was that it was one of the only solar plays that is currently making money. Do you know anything about it? It trades near $8 with volume of 1 mil+. Sprott has it as the #1 IPO of the year 2007.
Saleem, Got AKNS as well @ 14.20, so far so good...!!
AKNS & LDK are presenting next week at the Needham conference, this provide some good boost...!!
And, by the way, AKNS is touted as Solar CISCO..!!
AKNS:
I looked over the last quarterly report for this company on their website. I can say that this company is up to their nose in debt. Their gross margins are failing quarter over quarter. I could not imagine owning this companies shares. I live in California in San Diego so they are in my backyard. I have worked in the construction industry for 35 years as well. This company is expanding into a recessionary environment in the housing industry. I can tell you for a fact that the construction business has slowed considerably and custom home builders are feeling it. This company caters to that builder group. AKNS has out of control costs from marketing, personnel and cost of good sold to name a few. They were unable to meet the business progress requirements of their credit facility and had to get a waiver letter to maintain a favorable standing with Comerica. They owe them 4.5 million that is due September of 08. Take an hour to read that last quarterly report; its an eye opener. This company looks scary to me from a financial standpoint. They even say that they do not know if the current newly divised solar system that they are selling will work over time because it has not been tested in the field. Yahoo says that the current debt is 5 million. The balance sheet on their website states that they have 15 million in debt. I have no position in this stock; long or short.
About AKNS, I have to agree with stktrader on this one... It looks only good chartwise... Numbers are ugly... imo... It's last in the pack of the solar stocks...
AKNS is a stock for "players." On Thursday, I played it and made some quick $$. In at 9:30am - $12.25, out at 11:30am - $14.60. Really, the only $$ I captured this week.
Be careful Troy house!! This stock has no fundemental strength and is way overbought! This current market has taken down good stock. AKNS could be taken down so quick it will make your head spin. If you want to do quick trades with it go ahead, you may get lucky but....
AKNS:
This company is a retailer of solar products. They sell a non-patented product from Sunteck Power and others and then install it. That is their business model. They do not make anything. One benefit that they have as a retailer is that if a solar panel malfunctions, they can go back to the manufacturer to replace it. They have many sources of competition from small electricians to other entities like themselves. They claim that margins can be hurt by increasing costs from their manufacturers due to silicon. If you trade solar, you know about silicon and its story. I decided to take a break from technical analysis and make an effort to study fundamental analysis. It takes a lot more time but I can now see that it will keep one in good stocks and out of bad ones.
Hi Stktrader,
VNP is a good company with a niche market.
Sprott analyst were pushing this stock on BNN Canada's CNBC many times.
They just finished $62 million IPO which was oversubscribed on dec 21st...by another $4.5 million...
The $3 share is now worth $8.17...not bad for 2 weeks of work...
They are announcing their Q2 earnings on Jan 9 10AM...
Currently Sales are $21.9 Million..
Market cap $326.8 million
Av volume 2.1 million shares.....
They are building a factory in Germany with capacity of 4000m2..
Yes and they do supply to "thin film producers like FSLR"
Hope it helps !!
Saleem
AKNS
Be careful - tener cuidado!!
AKNS is basically a solar installer. Not the next CISCO!! (with all due respect troyhouse).
For the year ended 12/31/06 it had just enough current assets to cover its current liabilities, had minimal assets, minimal sales ($13m for 2006), cash flow was negative, had an accumulated defict (vs. retained earnings)... My only question is how did this company get listed on NASDAQ!
Once again, trade this stock if you want to gamble. I like to do that once in a while..it's exciting...especially when it works out. However, to hold this stock for any length of time...you will say bye bye to $$.
Oh by the way:
Cinnamon Sells 100,000 Shares for $11.12 Apiece
NEW YORK (AP) -- The chief executive of Akeena Solar Inc., which makes solar-power systems, sold 100,000 shares of stock, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing Thursday.
Wouldn't be suprised to see him sell a bunch more SOON!
Bruce and others:
We need to update this company from time to time, maybe each quarter to use it as an example of what not to buy. I believe that this company will crash and burn in short order maybe within two years. Your comment on Cinnamon was my next thought. This company is giving stock options away like candy. They paid the company that "help" create their last private placement a cool million in cash plus options. Everyone helping this company is getting options as part of the payment process. The insider sales are going to ratchet up at the elevated pps.
SALEEM
and all reader.
Good Morning:
So much discussion about AKNS, Hmmmm, if one reads the MB on Yahoo, I never got the impression that AKNS has money problems. Are we sure of our figures. THis Compnay is huge in CA and New Jersey, they are installers and appear to be minting money$$$$$.
This is a cut and past--Plz consider adding to your web brouser: Good updated comparison table of SOLAR stocks: http://www.marketmasters.org/modules/new...
Good Luck all and peace to you.
Madmax
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