Markets are being trashed on any "NO NEW NEWS again "
CFC or T did NOT say anything which market is not anticipating for months........
Markets are very jittery for any thing which reinforces "bad news"
Why......
Because there are hundreds of hedge funds...who love to "exploit any news which will make them Millions of $ in few minutes...they are PAID very handsomely to do that"
Who cares...who gets hurt or get wiped out in that process......
It is all a "game"......& "winning @ all cost is OK"
I am sure GS made hundreds of millions of $ in this sell off......remember they were on both side of "sub prime deals"...making billions by shorting...only millions selling.......
So....how bad was it today ???
Not as bad as the headlines may suggest.......
Advance declines were negative by 2 to 1.....with 238 down...you would expect it to be down @ least 4 to 1......similar ratio on NASDAQ..while it was down 59 or 2.36 %...
New 52 week lows were not that bad either only 438 on NYSE & 399 on NASDAQ...even less than Friday's sell off.......
So...it is telling me .....that selling is more orchestrated by derivatives than real selling.....
I do NOT see the extremities of Aug LOWS in any indicators........
In plain English......this selling is almost coming to an end.......
S&P 500 support area extends to 1370 area.....so NO violation in spite of many many manipulative attempts.......
It is important to know that certain sectors which has been popular until few weeks ago...will NOT be very productive going forward.......
New sectors are emerging as the place to invest/trade......
Gold/Oil/Base metals are DONE as a sector.....Why ?
US$ is holding FIRM in spite of all the turmoil......
Gold/Oil/Base metals are priced in US$......so they all have to come down in a hurry as US$ will move UP.......
I am also NOT optimistic about Techs...as they are approaching slower seasonal 2 Q in a row...they will CLOBBER techs ...once guidance is given for Next Q......suggest getting out ahead of ER.......
Yes markets are OVERDUE for a strong REBOUND...and may give the opportunity to get out of many future weak sectors.......all of course my personal read & I may be WRONG...so make your own decision based on your objectives......my take is for next 2 Q on techs.....& immediate take on Gold/Oil/Base metals......so...it is YOUR decision to buy or sell any of these......
In my portfolio I will end flat as my Canadian $ short will give me some money as it is down 16 tick against US$...which will more than offset .4% loss in my portfolio......
My portfolio remained :
AGU,AKNS,CSIQ,LDK & MA........
Extremely pleased with my Solar overweight.....LDK & CSIQ did very well on a "drubbing day"
Please try to read the changing nature of this market......Sector rotation is the KEY always.....
I have observed many investors & traders who love few stocks & stick with them for years...it is only "productive if those sectors are in focus"....I am afraid that sectors will be dramatically different for 08.....
Please do your OWN due diligence...as it is YOUR hard earned money !!!
Ensure your comfort level @ all times.......sometimes it is OK to be out of the market completely if it is affecting you financially or emotionally...take a break..do your homework & then rejoin !!!
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
20 comments:
Hi Saleem,
Like your post and opinion, always the optimist! What I don't like about this down trend is that it is too orderly. Step by step, inch by inch, no big blow off yet. Oversold? Very.
Since Nov we lost close to 11% in total correction. We've been going down since Nov. Normal corrections are 8 - 12%. Another Dow -500 would put us at -15%. That's deep by historical standards. But close by. What are you thoughts on this phenomena? Very nice pick on LDK!
Hi Standards,
I am of the opinion that this sell off is way overdone......
Minor slowdown in economy for 2 Q should not cause such a persistent downtrend in markets.....
Markets will turaround in a hurry also.....
1370 closing is "critical".....
As I always say ...I worry MORE about my stocks than markets.....
Weak markets give you cheaper buys of your targeted stocks.
Saleem
Saleem and friends,
In regards to sector rotation, I have not seen any pronounced evidence of money moving from one sector to another. It appears to me at this time that many investors are taking there $$, leaving the market, and parking it on the sidelines (money market) until some direction is confirmed. I personally feel that way. At this time I will restrict myself to taking a few shots at quick trades, as I have NO CONVICTION at this time, which as you know is a recipe for DISASTER!!
Is there any website that you use to confirm a changing of sectors? One site that I know of that has sector data is barchart.com. However, I really haven't figured out how to use the data avaiable to confirm a sector rotation has taken place. Let me know what you think. Maybe between all of us "brilliant" investors we can figure it out and increase our 2008investment returns.
Bruce
Hi Saleem,
I am looking forward to a day of sunshine on Wall St. Many retailers need a chance to reposition and the hedgies have not let up on us at all. Your last post, speaking about GS and the other scum that kill families wealth daily without mercy, does get old doesnt it. Traders/active investors get to be reminded daily of lesser Mankind with greed as its compass, also has the SEC tamed and blindfolded, like mafia with bad cops on its pay roll. LOL. Oh well. On a more positive note, here was my little day: sold ESLR for a decent little gain. Repurchased it at $17.32 and sold @$18.02. Repurchased again, just before the close to set up a trade for ESLR tomorrow. Made profit within my goal range for the day. Sold CPHD for even. Going to watch it close tomorrow and if volume picks up, I may enter again, just for a trade. CF is still looking good. Watching that one close too. I will be reading your blog with much anticipation to get your take on which sectors you judge as hot as we go forward through the year. Thanks for todays help and great blog reads. Also great blog participation by all posters. Doug...
Hi Bruce,
Thanks for your take on sector comment in my BLOG.
I get 3 email daily from www.schaeffersresearch.com they always highlight sectors they are bullish & bearish....
They are technical driven outfit with focus on options....
I enjoy reading their "free 3 daily updates on markets/options/sectors.....
It will be a very good source if you get their newsletter daily....
They give 2 pre-market and one after close...which is very detailed....
You can go to their website and read their todays sector focus...which is part of their closing recap.
Hope it helps.
Saleem
Hi Doug,
Financial markets are a game of winning.....always !!!
It does not matter how it is done...they have to show...how much they made today....
It is an old game....
No sense in worrying...just play opposite..which you are doing very well lately....
Remember you have to WIN @ the end of the day.....also....so you have to to be "quick to do it"
Saleem
I think the current take on the market is to sell any stock that either has no earnings or is risky. You can see it in the mining explorers in Canada and any stock running red earnings numbers. The "traders" and portfolio managers that manage other peoples money are on a flight to safety in preparation for a major downturn in the market. Thursday will be telling and also technical for the overall market when the retailers have to show the December sales numbers. Even Cramer said today that there is a rotation out of Biotechnology and into solid big Pharma. The move if anything is to big cap multinationals.
Hi Saleem. Good morning. The investor psychology in a market correction is fascinating. Yesterday was a good example. We had a rally which failed. At the end of the day, people were waiting for a better rally to sell into. When that didn't happen, they began selling in a frenzy despite no new news. Expect volitilty as the rule. I have been sitting on cash the past few days, being stopped out my non long term etf's last week except BABY. BABY has held up well so I have kept. It may just be the last soldier standing and crumble soon or may stay resilient and power higher. I will give it a chance. Have a great day.
Good Morning Saleem,
IH is expecting a nice and strong bounce for BIDU. They are sticking with MA but they are concerned and watching closely and they want to see a bounce here for the trend to continue. I also wanted to mention that they are very confident about ESLR, You know that they have a target of $21.75 and they entered at $17.71 so there is still time for a nice entry for the next leg up. IH thinks that the testing is just about over for ESLR. I like all three but I really like your solar call. That is one of the areas where I am always seeking guidance, is being in the right sectors. Thanks. Good luck today and I hope that you enjoy your day while trading. Doug...
GOOD MORNING SALEEM and all fellow bloggers
Looks like a strong open today.
LDK is strong pre - market.
My DSX is falling yuk.
Good luck trading and please enjoy the day!!!!
Peace
Madmax
Hi Minaccess,
Your approach is very prudent.
You can always enter when you feel right.
We all have different approach to trading.
I am always more focussed on "next big sector "
I am generally very early ..but it gives me great return.....
My portfolio is highlighted for that purpose always....
We will see you in trading pit SOON !!!
Saleem
Hi Doug,
Thank you so much for higlighting IH bets.....
I am amazed @ how similar my thinking is with IH...although my TA is @ grade 1 stage....
Remember your question about sector focus.....IH is already highlighting this change....
Solar & Ag will go down in 2008 as "supercharged sector"
I always highlight my theme..but lot of loyal to the past...fight me always....
I have seen challenge to my "futuristic thesis...by many many seasoned traders on MB 3 years in a row"
Will the 4th year any different in challenging my "gutsy calls...NO"
I KNOW I am RIGHT when majority disagrees with my thesis of investing & sectors"
Welcome to 2008 $$$$
Saleem
PS... You have a perfect strategy to trade daily TWICE......see you are making the dough $$$
Saleem,
I am beginning to understand why we have to trust our instincts and go with our guts. A good example of this is CF, I almost bought just before the close but past on it, out of not trusting the market or my inner voice. I could have sold it for $4 profit in pre market. It is odd and typical contrary thinking to actually trust the market, when we know how many snakes are lurking around. But its true, you do have to trust in the markets or you will freeze up and not trust your instincts. So much to know. I do find this journey of having to learn my true self, where I must confront weaknesses head on and challenge myself to be more methodical and less emotional, really fun. Discipline has never been one of my natural strengths so I am re shaping myself to get away from emotion and work the plan. Im just thinking out loud, not trying to say anything that you dont know, very well already. LOL. This soul searching probably just reenforces how little I know and signals where Im at in the learning curve but it is neat to be forced to change for the better. I am thankful to have this blog to air out thoughts and get feeback/positive and honest critique. Good luck today all bloggers...
By the way, yes it is great to see your opinions reenforced by IH takes. It just goes to show what experienced traders see, while I am blind as a bat, hence IH subscription and addiction to your blog. I NEED IT! LOL. Doug...
Doug,
We are all learning DAILY.....
Those who do NOT...
Have an uphill task....
Markets are tough always...if you are on the wrong side of the trade.
I have learnt to get OUT...when I am uncomfortable with any stock....dont care what the name IS....
Unemotional trading takes "horrendous discipline"
When I think of buying any stock....after checking FA & TA...i ask a simple question ?
Dose it have "the potential to move UP $15 by the end of the year....if the answer is YES...
Then I buy it...without worrying if it is @ "the-perfect price or NOT"
IH has been very good for you....
Your sharing of every thought is a mark of a very "sincere & honest person"
Keep it UP !!!
Saleem
Saleem, are you selling AKNS, or planning to hold...!!
SALEEM:
You may have seen this from J. Cramer:
Akeena Solar Akeena Solar IncAKNS
12.1684 UNCH 0% NASDAQ
[AKNS 12.1684 --- UNCH (0%) ]: This solar name is "too hot to handle," Cramer said. His favorite solar stock is still First Solar First Solar IncFSLR
230.5 UNCH 0% NASDAQ
GREAT minds think alike
Just waiting for AKNS to turn the corner and POP up Hurray
Madmax
.
Hi Troy,
I genrally do NOT sell immediately after buying.
Obviously you are NOT very comfortable.....
You should DO what makes you comfortable with AKNS.
Saleem
Saleem,
Great call on exiting BIDU.
Looks like the SOLARS are getting smacked again today....only one that seems to be holding its own for now is LDK, which received an upgrade today... but even that is in the red now are showing a nice gain early in the trading session!
AKNS went down to $9.91...not good for the one's looking for a quick pop and the DJIA, NASDQ and S&P are just starting to to RED!
I'm sure it will come back in the near term...however it could drop to the low $8s before it heads back up.
TOUGH MARKET!! BE CAREFUL!!
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