Markets are in freefall.......
INTC lousy ER AH.....is the last thing market was ready for......
Not only INTC ER was bad...their guidance was WEAK also.......
So where this market is leading US.......
If...this market is left on its own......it is heading LOWER......
What could save this market.......
Fed swift action/statement/support before OPEN.....could save this market......
Until fed saves us.......
How do we position in this market......
Reduced exposure is a given.......
What type of stocks we should position......
Stocks whose Sales & earnings are accelerating.....
Where the spending are mandated/encouraged through incentives...NOT subject to spending budget by corporations.......
Also you must project where your stocks will be by the end of 2008.......
What you MUST factor ......how you will navigate between now which is Jan 15 to Dec 31st,2008......both in terms of "finances & emotions"
Nobody likes seeing their equity going down........which is exactly what is happening since Christmas.......
I do NOT see markets as being very stable unless Fed is extremely aggressive to bail the markets out........
Lot of market pundits are calling for a "turnaround in this market after open on wed"
Macke & Cramer are suggesting a "rebound...after dropping 20 on S&P 500 @ open...and then a recovery until close......
As markets have been "oversold for a while"...a green close on wed is a possibility.....
So what is happening with solar stocks.......they went UP the most of any sector & are NOW correcting the-most based on negative stock market environment.Fundamentally nothing has changed in solar sector...keep an eye on PE to find the-most attractive solar stock....NOT all solar stocks are created equal...but they are all being taken for a major drubbing.
I was down 6.4%...thanks to MA & AGU...while solar stocks were all down minimum 13%.....
Please ensure your comfort level with exposure in this market & with your stocks......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
22 comments:
Saleem, I am confused, are you out of Solar stocks like AKNS, LDK & CSIQ?
I am just going to hold as I am not on margin and this being an election year there will be some action from Fed & President.
I do not believe that the fed is going to take action to save the stock market. That is not their job. They are economy oriented and the market is not. The market acts on fear and greed; the economy acts on the business prospects of corporations at home and abroad. For them to step in on anything other than an economic situation would look like Wallstreet owns them. That would not be good.
At this point in your investing/trading you have to just hold out for better times in your current stock portfolio. I bought 8 thousand shares of KOOL at 2.78 averaged. It went down last week to 1.35 before rebounding back to 2.10 on a pre announcement of better earnings/guidance before the earning release on Feb.6th. The shorts got stomped and all, including the company, loved it. As long as you feel that the fundamentals are there to support the companies that you own, don't sell. Let them come back to you at another point in time.
Hi Troy,
I am in all solar stocks including AKNS,CSIQ & LDK.....
What gave you the impression that I am out of Solar...or have sold anything.....
When I sell anything I list all of them.
Saleem
Saleem,
You know the solar sector way better than I, so what I am wondering is do you think that preserving capital should be the name of the game, in other words get out and fight another day, if we don't hear from the Fed in pre market? I am concerned about comments on Kudlow suggesting dow 11,000.(I know I shouldn't listen to t.v. bears but...) I don't want to have to hold a year to get back only losses. I know this is a personal decision that needs to be made, but I just want to hear your perspective. Thanks in advance.
Hi Stktrader,
I think it is getting UGLY out there.....
I am expecting @ least strong support for the markets by the adminstartion.
When stock market hurts...it hurts the economy big time.....
So it IS feds job to help the economy via stock market.....
Saleem
Saleem, As I mentioned, I was confused and I highly appreciate you posting all the trades you do...its very helpful..
Sorry for the confusion...
Hi Doug,
There will be a rally hopefully by end of the day...based on experts & non-experts like me.....
Evaluate the strength/reason of the rally...then plan on exposure strategy.....
I will be doing the same analysis...and will keep you posted.
I am NOT comfortable with my exposure and wants to REDUCE based on wed close.
Solar & other stocks do NOT matter if markets are vulnerable......
It is all about risk management.
Saleem
Thanks a million Saleem. I will probably do a little pairing back in the afternoon session, unless we really do get a dream come true Fed intervention. I sold SOHU for just over $51 yesterday Saleem, so I hold only ESLR and LDK now. I will probably sell ESLR on any bounce as I have less damage there compared to LDK but they are evenly weighted in dollars. So I may hold LDK for a solar play investment and go to quick trades when appropriate, to attempt to start making up for some of the losses. It would be nice to buy something when it is really scary tomorrow, for a trade but I dont think I will have the guts. Thanks for the insight for tomorrow.
Hi Doug,
Everybody has to monitor their own comfort level daily......
Markets are unpredictable these days......reason...nobody knows...
I always takes cue from the market & tape.....
Solar tape today did NOT increase my comfort...so I am on high alert to see how it goes from hereon....
I am always OPEN to the change in market conditions..both ways.....
Idea is to make money with little risk......but if RISK increases...the there is a NEED to reduce exposure.....
Wed close should be very very critical.......
Todays close was a major dissapointment...to say the least....
Saleem
To soon of a rate cut prior to the next meeting was discussed today on one of the business channels and the conclusion was that if the fed came in early, traders would think that the fed sees something fundamentally wrong economicly and had to come in. The markets could sell off on that instead of rising.
It all boils down to the tactic of having a hard stop or not. Take your 8% loss and move on to play another day and also move on mentally or sit it out and be a holder for an ungiven amount of time where you live in investor/trader pain and then lack the mojo to add new investments/trades. Always feeling like you have to wait until your losers bail you out. I have come to the conclusion that a cat only has 9 lives and like us traders if we don't start to place stops and get ourselves out of these bombing losses, it is going to catch up with is over time.
I heard and read that tommorrow that Speaker of the House Pelosi (D)and Minority Leader Boiner (R)of Ohio will meet to finalize an economic stimulus plan to present to the President. I believe this plan will be approved by the President post-haste by the end of the week.
Also, the Fast Money CNBC guys tonight (3 of the 4) believe the FED will cut rates by 50 basis points Friday before the open of the market (options expiration day). Najarian warned the shorts to cover or fry!
My opinion,
(1) Tommorrow bloodbath early....slight recovery by end of day
(2) Wednesday and Thursday slight to moderate down days
(3) Friday - option expiration, massive rally resulting from announcement of bi-partisian economic stimulus plan, 50 basis point rate reduction by FED, and happy shorts become very sad!
We'll see.
Hi Bruce,
I am matching your wed scenario.
Thursday like to see a follow thru......
Friday I like your stir fry recipe for shorts....
Since we are deeply oversold...even some positive comment from adminstration may carry this market......in GREEN !!!
Trying to be optimistic !!!
Saleem
Solar lovers check this out, LDK was recently bought by many funds....long term we are just fine..
http://www.thebuylist.com/default.aspx?Stock=ldk
Funds bought LDK and many other solars on 01/15/08
Long term we will be just fine...
I know this is just speculation but it sure would be nice:asian markets down Wednesday on rumors of surprise rate cut...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22672289/for/cnbc...
I sat down and took a look at the fundamentals for my solars tonight. They still look great, with very attractive PE's and PEG ratios if looking towards the back end of the year. Yes, the next few months are likely to be rough, however, I think it might be good to have the likes of INTC guiding lower, we need a reset of expectations. The bulging populations of India, China and LA are not going away, so if you can stomach some choppy waters right now, the rewards should come in Q3 and Q4 of 2008.
Good morning (I hope) Saleem,
Do you think that the press release from LDK this morning has any power to help stop the bleeding or if the news isn't strong enough to help? Just wondering what you think? Judging by pre market action, my guess is no. Thanks.
Doug and other LDK holders,
I think it's good news that adds future value to LDK. However, in today's market action, which I expect will be $%&^$%$, I don't think it will help. For those that didn't see the news, I pasted it below:
-----------------------------------
LDK Solar, Ganzhong TCS Plant Sign Supply Framework PactLast update: 1/16/2008 3:26:35 AMDOW JONES NEWSWIRES LDK Solar Co. (LDK) signed a long-term framework contract with Jiangxi Ganzhong Chlorine & Caustic Co. for the supply of trichlorosilane, a chemical used in the production of polysilicon. Under the contract, Ganzhong will supply a minimum of 400 tons a month of TCS gas beginning in May and a minimum monthly supply of 1,600 tons beginning in August. Financial terms of the deal weren't disclosed. LDK Solar manufactures multicrystalline solar wafers. -Lauren Pollock; 201-938-5400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones NewswiresJanuary 16, 2008 03:26 ET (08:26 GMT)
Hi Ibd,
Thanks for posting your take on solar stocks and checking their PE & PEG ratio.
Techs sentiments are bad as we go into seasonally slower Q1 & Q2......
Welcome to my BLOG.
Saleem
Hi Doug,
Solar seems to be out of favour for whatever reason.....
Market CAN change its mind on any sector..very quickly....
Since the word "recession" is being bandied about......
We all have to discover "new sector to make money immediately ahead"......
For long term believers in Solar...sun is still "shining bright".....
Saleem
Saleem,
Just a feeling based on my cursory review of the premarket action....I don't think the market action will be as negative as I thought yesterday. Down yes....but not like yesterday.
Just a feeling nothing more.
24 minutes till we open up
Just a follow-on to my last post. I am noticing the various proshare-ultra shorts backing off from their pre-market highs...interesting. Think the shorts may be getting nervous...after all they made a big $$$$$ yesterday. May not happen today for them. I hope..we'll see!
Hi Bruce,
Just finished my BLOG...you will LIKE..what I have to say !!!
Saleem
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