Today's close of S&P 500 is well above support area...which is a very good thing.....
Market gave the feeling that selling has dried up.......even Dow ended green.....
NASDAQ was the mild laggard...closed red.......
Solar stocks were the-disaster of the day.....across the board..... ESLR was the only & the lonely green..by 21 cents......
So...what is going on in the markets & solar stocks in particular ?????
Let us tackle the markets first.........
There is NO clarity of fed moves anymore.....
There was talk about an economic package....to help the derailed economy....so it get the kick-start it needs.....so NO need to cut fed funds?
The last thing this market needs is ...confusion about the resolution of this credit/housing mess..
I get the feeling that there is NO administration point man to deal with this "horrendous economic mess......No Bob Reubin here.....
Poulson does NOT look in-charge @ all...on the contrary he looks LOST.....always reading from notes.......Does NOT exudes confidence.......
So...markets will drift....in a very weak mode.....today's sluggish tape is more like it......
Markets will mark time...until some leadership/resolution surfaces........
I am NOT sure what my strategy will be going forward.......
I am looking @ various defensive posture......will post as I decide & implement......
Now to Solar.....Solar stocks pulled back to correct from their "northward strong move"
LDK was "unfairly dragged down by MM/Hedgies to clean out weak hands"
LDK is back to July 07 level......while every solar stocks has @ least doubled in that time frame...most of solar has tripled even.......
I expect LDK to go against the "crummy market" and MAY defy gravity.......
In my portfolio :
Sold all BIDU and booked a loss of $20 per share.......
Put entire proceed in AGU and tripled my position..my cost now $72.14....technically AGU is @ crossroad..either it goes for breakout @ $73.51 for a target of $79.50 ...or it breakdown @ $70.70 and goes down to potentially $64.61......I think it will do neither and go with the Ag sector......down 93 cents.....not bad considering everything....
MA trade rating is 90 ...means it is going higher...it behaved well today...down only 68 cent...
LDK down $4.87....trade rating 70......
CSIQ down $3.79....trade rating is 100 highest..should go UP....
AKNS down 96 cent...too new ..less than a year....for rating by stockconsultant.com
My overall portfolio was down 4.8%...I got .4% help from my Canadian $ short......was down against US$.....
Here is my $ allocation as of tonight close :
AKNS 6%
CSIQ 12.6%
LDK 21.2%
Total Solar 39.8%
AGU 25.1%
MA 35.1%
This will give an idea as to how I am positioned in this "crazy market" ?????
Of course it is subject to change based on market conditions & change in my strategy !!!
Please do NOT leave any message on CMED board.......
There is a comment section which can be used .... click on latest message....enter your email address...then create a password for my BLOG......then ask any question in comment page....
I will answer any question........as usual !!!
Please ensure your OWN comfort level...as this market is "more than challenging"
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
15 comments:
SALEEM
I am sorry that you lost in $$$ BIDU. I almost fell out of my chair when MA hit $187.
The positive close today may mean a floor is in, I sure hope so. again thanks for your blog and calming voice of reason. I needed it today
God bless
Madmax
Hi Madmax,
Market is "tough".....
So..one needs to monitor WEAK tape...and get out ASAP.
I am "quite optimistic" about MA & LDK.
Saleem
Saleem,
SOHU did exactly what you predicted and that is, it went to $48, just like you said it could and then held there very nicely. I will wait to see how it acts over the next couple of days and then on an oversold rebound, I may sell it on a decent bounce. Yes, I would be selling for a loss but I don't know if MM's are going to let SOHU go up too much, given the new values trying to be set on stocks. If I can get it back to $52-$53 area, I could sell for not to much pain.
IH stopped out RIMM today because it didn't hold $100 into the close.
I am seriously thinking about buying MA tomorrow.
Thanks for giving me your call of SOHU bottom at $48. It let me stay confident, as cool heads prevail.
Doug...
I must admit that I am thinking twice about putting in practice my last few months of "learning". My picks didn't fare well during the last few days. The good thing is that all my losses were on paper. But now that I am all setup to start trading, I have the jitters...
It's quite tempting to jump right in and buy a few stocks that look oversold... But at this point, I am afraid that those buy would be against all the principles I am trying to apply.
I am torn between being afraid of missing some bargains (LDK... for example) or being afraid of catching falling knifes. I don’t know if what I am trying to say is making sense to anyone… Sometimes I find it difficult to express my thoughts in English… don’t forget, I am a frog after all…
P.S.: It’s great to read all the experienced traders posts. Good to sell that I am not the only one redefining strategies…
Hi Doug,
I am very impressed with you...that you are continously adjusting your target based on...market conditions.....
A hallmark of a successful trader...
A $ in pocket will always matter..
Every single stock is being adjusted lower...PE is shrinking for all of them...
SOHU strategy makes sense to me....it MAY get to your target in ONE day...so have a GTC entered.
Saleem
Hi Frogvest,
Unless you are comfortable...do NOT buy anything.....
Keep monitoring your paper trades....
When you are hitting 60% green on bad day...then you have a successful strategy...
Saleem
Saleem,
It's funny that you say that. I actually have 3 portfolios : my best picks (FA TA and all), my impulsive "bargain hunting" picks, and my "monkey" picks (random).
My best picks today down 1.84%
My impulsive picks today down 3.13%
My monkey picks.... UP .17%
Anybody want to buy my monkey???
But seriously, the secret is to look at the big picture. Your advices help me do that.
UBS downgraded IBM,DELL,EMC,SUN before the open today. Trying to drive a knife in the tech sector. Key companies get knifed and the rest will fall with it. No wonder the blood is flowing. Pure market manipulation.
Hi Standards,
@ bottom...these are common practice....
It is a great contrary signal....saying sell near LOW.
They were all @ buy near high.
They do not practice buy low sell high....
Saleem
Hi Saleem. Can I ask you a personal financial question? If not comfortable, you can just say so. How much money would you need to have to stop "trading" and live off fixed interest and savings. I know Canada is different than the US with no health care costs and different tax laws with retirement savings. For some people it doesn't matter because they enjoy it, for others they trade until they have enough income to retire. Boy did solar take a pounding. SPWR, CY, WFR, LDK and TSL sliced through their 50 DMA. STP, FSLR came to the 50 DMA and held. SOLF, CSIQ, CSUN all got hit hard as well. Peace.
Looking at the market for the past few days, I had the urge of taking everything off the market and watch for couple of months on the sidelines. I had built up a nice 7.5% gain for the past few months but I am down 3.5% during this bloodbath. The only positive was buying AKNS@13.69 when Bruce mentioned the other day and sold in pre-market today @16.20. Thank you Bruce!
My diversity saved me little bit. MR, FMCN, ARAY stood ground today compared to GOOG, APPL, BIDU, DSX, EMKR. Added 50% BIDU @340 at my initial cost. I expect BIDU to turn around to 380/400 range soon as earnings is around time and Olympics is not so far away. Sold AMZN @90 with no gain/no loss last week.
Thanks Saleem for your time and engaging us in good thought process, investing wisdom.
Sankar and all,
Today was brutal! Glad to hear you made some $$ on AKNS. I think most people, including myself are dissapointed in the 2008 market action so far (I am down 7.3% YTD and approx. 15% from my high point of last year). Does not put a smile on my face!
In my opinion, caution is the word. I personally have 73% of my investing funds in cash right now (LDK 20.1% and AAPL - 6.88%), but that could change at any time, as I will be watching the market very closely looking for direction. Things will eventually turn North but I have a feeling that the first half of the year may be tenuous at best..so as they say here in South Florida..."tener cuidado!!" (be careful) and "buen suerte" (good luck)!
Bruce
Hi Minaccess,
Yes...Canada is very different than US.....
You start with $0 in medical cost..no insurance..no registration..& no deductible of any sort.....
Prescription medicine is also FREE ...if you are hospitalized & free food....
My lifestyle is very simple....between me & my wife as we have no kids.....
We believe in taking care of each & everything..we ever buy...maintain,clean & polish....
Mostly we stay home...my wife IS my best friend......we socialize once every THREE month by visiting or inviting two couples..we are FOND of....
My car is 21 years old which we bought brand new in 1987...honda Accord......
My fridge,washer,dryer & furniture are 27 year old.....
Everything we own are in great working order.....NO Green Acres here...
House is 9 years old...away from Toronto's hustle& bustle......
Drive only 5000 KM or 3000 miles in a year...Car is in outstanding condition with 550,000 or 343,000 miles....
No engine work ever....runs like new.."I am possessed by it"...it shines ...goes 120K or 75 MPH in a flash......
So...we are opposite of "keeping UP with Jones"
My annual budget is $35,000 and we "comfortably live within our means"
Solar stocks were taken to cleaners..because some needed cleaning ...others were "unduly punished like LDK...
Will be interested in your or others reaction to my "boring lifestyle"
I hope ..I have NOT dissappointed anyone.....
Saleem
Hi Sankar,
Yes.....your diversity is working for you....because you are in right stocks.....
We are all down around the same % as an average.....which proves two things....
First..nobody is saved from the sinking of all boats.....
Second...we are all become great stock pickers by doing our own homework...
Thanks for your appreciation of my BLOG & its content.....
Saleem
Hi Bruce,
I have a feeling that we are very close to the bottom or we have seen one already....
I am never sure..because of hedge funds like GS..who can take markets anywhere..if they decide so....
It will be interesting how ...we all end up when 2008 is over....
In loss % from peak last year...I am down 10.6%......
Saleem
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