Well......here we go AGAIN ?????
S&P 500 was down 2.43% after a very strong day ????
If you look @ market internals...it was NOT as bad as our individual portfolios???
Advance decline ratio was lead by decliners by 2.39 to 1 on NYSE & 2.37 to 1 on NASDAQ......
So...in real stock market based on these two indices 1 stock was UP for every 2.37 down....but our portfolios were all RED????
Why ?????
That IS the question to be explored.... to understand this extremely volatile market.......
Lot of investors/traders are buying on UP days & selling in PANIC on DOWN days.......NOT a good strategy.......
The strategy IS to be READY in an "instant to BUY" ...when market turns DOWN unexpected.....
Plus to be "ready to sell when you see profit"........
I know..... it is easier said than done......
I do not think ...volatility will go away anytime soon......
So...a simple question IS....what IS your plan to deal/prosper from this volatility.....this is an individual strategy question...so you have to figure it out for yourself......
Also keep in mind that Yesterday's superstars like Oil,Gold,Ag are falling apart because of US$ is taking centre stage......I have said many times in my BLOG that I am long US$ and short CAD...Canadian $ collapsed today against US$ down full 200 basis.....
US$ reality must be factored in your stock picking strategy..........
In my portfolio :
Sold TOL booked $1.70 per share profit
Sold CSIQ booked $7.50 per share loss
Bought JNPR cost $25.05
Bought QLD cost $65.90
My brokerage TD Waterhouse corrected the bad fill of VISA by giving me @ opening price of $59.50 for V.....that was sweet !!!!
My portfolio is :
BRCM,CMED,JNPR,NVDA,QLD,V.....
Today's tape was dictated by OE ,US$ rise,Gold,oil & commodity freefall......
Hopefully we will have a much better tape on Thursday for remaining Quad expiry !!!!
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
16 comments:
Hi Saleem. Miserable day. Again, multiple 10% down stocks. I sold all my short term investments yesterday and today. QLD is interesting. Long term markets go up. If you are a long term investor, say 10-20 years before retirment, ultra-long etf's seem a great bet. In my long-term portfolio, I have spy, dia and qqqq. When things quiet down, I may switch my spy, dia and qqqq to ultra-longs.
Hi Minaccess,
Markets will remain volatile for sometime.....
I am trying very hard to anticipate or adjust to market...not an easy thing....
QLD could be the "mother of all ultra long going forward"
Saleem
Saleem,
Great blog tonight. I made my days wage but I had many opportunities to sell what I had, for 2 more days worth of pay. I held instead and went into loss position on QLD. My cost is $66.50. I could have sold it for $3 profit. I sold MA for even on the 2nd trade of the day w/ MA. I could have sold MA for $5 profit. So I could have made great trades out of MA and QLD but I got greedy and held, thinking there was more. Snooze I lose! I think I got myself into this situation (not taking profits + being upside down on the trade right now, is that I had those solid MA and QLD trades early this morning and because I had banked some profit and bought them both again on a retracement, I got cocky and pushed my luck. I keep telling myself to "TAKE THE PROFITS". Hopefully one of these days, I will actually listen to myself. LOL. Thanks for putting me onto QLD Saleem. It has treated me well. Holding now at my price, I am fine with it as I know it will be there soon enough. But it is a nice vehicle to ride the index. I am keeping SDS always in site too. Matter of fact I am going to try to more consistently buy one as the market goes up a couple of days, buy SDS and visa versa. Anyway, I hope for green tomorrow. Best wishes.
Hi Doug,
It IS OK to be greedy if you have already made your budget.....
Market tricked you,me & everybody today...it was suppose to go down max 100 not 300.....
So thursday should be better.
Great dual trade on MA....
Saleem
Good morning Saleem and everyone else,
Last night I was reading the FT and a few other things.
Would like your take on the scenarios presented.
With events supporting the dollar, everyone is saying that is why commodities are down. What I read that makes even more sense is that hedge funds are being asked by their broker/dealers to deleverage from the 10 to 1 to much less (in effect getting margin calls.) Yesterdays action they say was due to hedge funds selling their most profitable positions. FT said that we could be in for a rally soon though because mutual funds are sitting on historically high levels of cas, sentiment is low AND next week is end of the month window dressing when they show they've been in the best performers. SO....that would argue for a bump in many of the best performers that were hit hard yesterday as mutual funds buy those.
If this is too much speculation for you, feel free to not comment on what you think of this scenario.
I'm so glad there's no market open tomorrow!
Best,
Beatrice
Hi B,
It does seem that MM's are selling their winners to cover margin as well as take profits in Gold, Ag, mining... It also makes sense that tech stocks like AAPL, RIMM + railroads, shipping and trucking, could see run ups as money comes off the sidelines. I think you are right on the money but I know about as much as a sea tortoise so don't rely on my read. LOL...
Hi Beatrice,
Market direction has many "trigger points".....
If you read that Fed IS deeply involved in managing risk for US economy......deleveraging is a natural outcome for everybody under the direction of Fed.....
Fed will NOT pump 400 billion without expectations of avoiding another BLOWUP like BSC....
45 to 1 leverage IS gone which BSC did.....
CME always adjust margin requirement to control rampant speculation in any futures market...
Lot of hedge funds got CREAMED..so they have margin calls to meet in few hours.....
As to rally..there IS a much greater chance of that after yesterdays 300 point drop.
Saleem
Thanks to Saleem and Doug for your responses.
Any thoughts about PALM. They closed down yesterday and today they report after the close.
JPMorgan just said they recommend going into earnings long and that expectations are too low for this one. I'm thinking about buying but selling before the close. Any thoughts about PALM appreciated.
Thanks,
Beatrice
Good morning Saleem,
Do you have any thoughts on BIDU? I'm wondering if it could be a buy here? Down in pre market to $215.
Thanks for any insight. Good luck today!!! p.s. I sold half of my HCBK position this morning as I had too many shares IMO. I put the sell price in at $18.25 and sold 825 of 1,500 shares. This lowered my remaining shares to new cost basis of $16.60. So I am QLD and HCBK. BIDU could fit in well if... I am also looking at IH play on AAPL.
Saleem,
Robert Hsu put out a sell on CMED last night due to lask of near term positive catalysts and poor momentum.
He's bullish on Taiwan (elections on Sat.) and likes AUO with a buy under $10.
He's bullish commodities and "feels sorry" for those who are being scared out of AEM, MOS, CLF...
Thinks it's a big mistake.
Beatrice
Hi Doug,
AAPL is a much better play.
BIDU is very WEAK....
Saleem
Hi Beatrice,
Thanks for your note on CMED...that guy has been wrong on MR for years...so his credibility is NIL.....
PALM..I do not follow @ all.
Saleem
SALLEM
GOOD morning to ya my friend
A green day GREAT
Look at the action on POT and AGU!! Your V is a winner as is my GS.
Congradulations
M
Hi Madmax,
Yes....green IS the colour....
GS is doing well !!!
Saleem
Add more V or take some profit off?
V--VISA
Long term a great hold
Day trade buy dips and sell the highs
IMHO
M
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