Markets are going through a major base building @ current level....
S&P 500 gave a "heads UP" to other indices by closing green......
Today US market showed resiliency after worldwide sell off.....
There IS so much uncertainty about credit issues that markets are showing strength relatively speaking......by NOT tanking to January LOWS or going further LOWER......
In my portfolio :
Sold RIMM booked a loss $4 per share as I wanted to free up some funds to do some buying in more desirable stocks based on valuation.
Bought TKC @ $25.23
Added 36% more LDK @ $25.69.......my cost went down to $42......Still too high but coming down.....
I feel LDK has been subjected to a well coordinated short attack by PJ,GS & Barron's......the game was very clear today after GS reduced the price target of LDK to $28 only a $ higher than buddy PJ based on GS prediction of Q1 coming @ the low end of LDK range...reason LDK will have problem getting Polysilicon and their cost will be higher ......
GS is predicting that LDK polysilicon cost will be higher in 2008 & 2009...so increase solar wafer production will not be able to make up for the rising cost of polysilicon....thus reduction in profit margin.......
It is interesting that each analyst are "highlighting different issues against the company issued margin guidance"....LDK has issued guidance which is showing way above industry margins compared to FSLR,STP or any other solar company.......
As LDK is facing a coordinated attack on three front GS,PJ & Barron's...which IS proving that they have been shorting from $36 level which has been the resistance on any rally....so I guess todays downgrade is a last attempt by the trio to cover @ today's level by unsuspecting retail investors.......
In October inventory fiasco GS had a similar low target to manipulate the share price.....
LDK is presenting in MS conference on March 5th @ 4.30PM est......which IS only 25 days before the end of Q1.......I hope that on wed LDK will be able to address all the issues as played out by Barron's,PJ & GS by refuting every allegations & assertions.....
It will be nice if LDK can narrow down their guidance towards mid/upper range.......then you watch the short covering by the gang of three....Thursday AH LDK stock price should be a pleasure to watch......
I also expect MS to upgrade LDK before or after their presentation...as good presentation is anticipated by host.......I hope !!!!
CSIQ rating 90/100 rated for a "breakout" @ $19.85 for a target of $23.63
COIN rating 5/30 "breakout confirmed"....No resistance ahead......
GS rating 60/65 "breakdown confirmed" target $155.90 ...IF NOT then 1st target UP is $172.55..
LDK rating 40/70 "breakdown confirmed"target $18.96 ...IF NOT then 1st target UP is $28.35...
TKC rating 40/45 target $27.11
In other stocks:
AGU rating 20/30 target $74.13
FMCN rating 35/30 target $52.07
ISRG,FSLR,FMCN,ICE,NMX,WFR,AUY were UP......
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
10 comments:
Hi Saleem,
I am so happy to see such a thought provoking blog on LDK. You have given me much to think about, with a time framing around the analysis that you provided. It will indeed be very interesting and exciting to watch these things play out this week. Your experience and investigative mind is a BIG benefit to me. I would not been able to even begin to attempt to put together all of the points that you gave in your take. What is most exciting to me about your thesis is, it all makes a lot of sense to me. We definitely know that analysts are nothing more than an ace up the sleeves of WS. We know that they work in together by playing off of each others momentum, if not straight out collusion! As one trader said: The stock market is not a friendly game!!! So, every now and then someone comes along that has superb analyst skills and is a seasoned trader, who can put the pieces of the puzzle together and capitalize on it--SALEEM. LOL. I'm just glad you share!!! Thanks Bro!
Hi Doug,
Thanks for your appreciative note.
What good is any knowledge if you do not share with everyone...otherwise it just goes to waste...which is a tragedy !!!
I do know lot of people come to my BLOG to read a "credible take on many stocks"
Integrity & experience is what I bring to the table.....a rarity in self-centric lifestyle.
We all need to show the good side of humanity....for collective good !!!
Saleem
I agree with you 100%. You said it perfectly. You have also said many times that your blog is "a labour of Love" and I KNOW this to be true about your spirit!
Now I want to ask you about GS. I watched Fast Money tonight, as you probably did too, and they discussed the window of time that GS would have to offer guidance if they expected a big miss. I did not catch when that would end, that could signal that they wont miss big? I also heard FM talking about looking to pick GS up maybe around $150-155 area and I was wondering what you thought about it hitting that range before ER later this month? Thanks for your thoughts.
Hi Doug,
GS earnings is on March 18 which was officially announced by GS on feb 27 @ 4.09 PM......
This means NO warning by GS.....
Warning IS announced before earning date announcement by the company.....
I am amzed that FM does NOT know this...one was saying march 13 and the other was saying march 18...this IS irresponsible UTTERANCES...which is so UNFAIR to listeners.
As you know my cost on GS is $175.94...so you are getting a "real deal"......
I do NOT recommend waiting for lowest possible price....it IS LOW enough already !!!!
Saleem
Saleem,
a couple more things. I didnt really ask you if you think GS would be a buy?
I am glad you are in TKC. I haven't pulled the trigger yet but that is probably my next buy! Thanks again...
Sorry Saleem, we were posting at the same time as you already answered my last post. Thanks so much for the suggestion and cleaning up the Fast Money slop.
SALEEM
Good morning CSIQ looks to open green!!! Hurray
Good luck on TKC, as you know I like it a lot
have a fantastic day my friend...
SALEEM
DID not know if you ever saw this CRAMER news on TKC. here it is:
For a good international play, Cramer recommended Turkcell (TKC - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), the largest wireless carrier in Turkey. The company currently has a 58% market share in Turkey and Cramer says Turkcell is expanding into neighboring, less-penetrated countries, affording it incredible growth potential.
The company recently reported a better-than-expected quarter, beating estimates by 8 cents a share. Turkcell was helped, in part, by a weak U.S. dollar and reported profits up 44% on a 50% increase in revenues. Cramer says Turkcell is a buy both because of its growth as well as the fact that it is not constrained by U.S. economic woes.
Cramer suggested buying Turkcell on any weakness in the stock, and getting in below $24 a share.
Opposing the XM-Sirius Merger
Hi Madmax,
Yes TSL beats & CSIQ reports on wed AM.....
All solar are showing sign of pulse today ....
Saleem
Hi Madmax,
I bought TKC on excellent FA & TA.....
Jimmy the Cramer does NOT display conviction on anything...too many flip flop on a daily basis.....
So listener tune in for entertainment only to listen to his "comedy show"...which we all need these days.
Saleem
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