A year & two months ago....there was a clear cut talk of sub prime mess...compounded by Yen carrytrade.......
Greenspan predicted a crash in China......
All of the above was dismissed by lesser mind like US...as another gloom & doom talk by Greenspan to earn his $100,000 fee for speech.....
Some of US like ME analyzed that as long as you do NOT stay in financials.....we should do WELL in stock market.....
Some of US like ME also concluded that every 10 years US housing market goes through these corrections...so it is housing related sub-prime mess.....
So..... here we ARE after 14 months......there IS a worldwide meltdown in Stock markets .......
Most of the stocks which had nothing to do with financing & housing have taken a 40% to 60% HIT......
Most of the strong stocks in strong/GROWING sector are selling @ deep discount.......
This IS what bear market does......to good stocks...
If you can believe this...some home builders are @ 52 week HIGH......
While hyper growth stocks like POT,RIMM,AAPL,Oil & Gas,Coal ,Solar are given a 40% haircut......
So......
Where are we in this bear market cycle???
Because home builders are near 52 week highs.....which started & responsible for sub-prime mess & mortgage swaps disaster.........
We CAN look @ stock market with some comfort & hope.......
Presidential election in US is also showing preference for one candidate...which should help the sentiment for growth in stock market.......
So.....
How one should look @ stock market NOW???
I strongly suggest it is time to invest in many stocks...like a broad based portfolio of fast growing sectors.....
Suggest.... NOT concentrating in very few stocks......that was my bear market strategy......
Bear market IS certainly on its last legs......
Weakness should be bought......
NOW...you CAN try to let the WINNERS RUN.........& see how it GOES !!!!!
There is a major SHIFT in market phase.......
We are heading into BULL from BEAR..........
So do your OWN due diligence & go for fast growing sectors......
How to locate fast growing sectors???
Check EPS growth rate in 09......
Most of the highest growth EPS companies are trading NEAR LOWEST PE in 14 months.....
TIME to do FA ......as TA are BROKEN for most stocks......
So...do NOT rely on technical outfit for answers...
It IS the FUNDAMENTAL analysis which will give you the best bang for the buck......
Good luck with your OWN homework.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
9 comments:
Hi Saleem,
Nice blog tonight! Ok, the gas situation here in ATL,,,,we are getting word that there is no damage to the refineries and no loss of supply to the area. Yet the stations refuse to sell gas or will not drop their prices under $4.29 a gallon. Are you seeing this anywhere else?
Thanks
Hi Saleem,
Whoa futures look bad tonight. Am I reading that right? S&P -37.5?
Standards,
I would place a call to a government official in Atlanta tomorrow morning and let them know about the price gauging going on. I live in Austin, Tx and I can tell you that our gas prices have not moved in about a week and a half. We are at around $3.48-$3.55. More than likely the convenient stores are trying to make a few extra dollars off the hurricane, and should be reported.
Hi Standards,
Thanks for your appreciative note.
Yes...LEH & MER gone in one night..so futures & world markets will do the usual PANIC.
I AM buying today...as I feel this event will form the bottom.
Saleem
Hi Haw,
Thanks, this is not just a few gas outlets. This is all major and off brand stations. They all hiked their prices overnight, so there is some central authority commanding them to set the prices artificially high. The media never asks the question of how all the stations react at one.
Standers
Gas in DC is $3.70 a gallon
This is the Mother of all market sell offs!!!!!!
this should put the bottom in and up by Wednesday
I woul dNOT be surprised if we close green-Comments?
Buy buy buy--Get some! Now what do I buy?
RIMM and AAPL are attractive as is oils. HAL, PWE, RRC, XTO, UPL.
Just my .02 cents
Peace to all
M
Hi C,
Yes ...we are STARING @ bottom in this market.
Buy ...what you KNOW & are comfortable with.
Saleem
SALEEM
Great analysis on SOLAR.
Thanks for the hard work
There is no sure bet right now
I still like GS and Bank America will reward with the buy out of Merrill Lynch they are now the biggest bank
Interesting day
Good LUCK to all
Hi C,
Thanks for your appreciative note.
Yes..it IS tough right now.....
But...that is how bottom is put in.
Bank of America looks very good...but I let it base first.
Saleem
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