Indices closed @ another record.
S&P 500 @ 1680.19...closed @ absolute high of the day.
RSI @ 66.62
CMF @ 0.094
Internals were :
UP volume led by 1.28 to 1 in NYSE & 1.64 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 1.01 to 1 in NYSE & 1.21 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 224 in NYSE & 285 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 1.21% @ 13.84
Oil @ $105.95
Gold @ $1277.60
Stocks which were UP 1% or more included EBAY
LNKD NFLX TSLA AMZN EXPE PCLN
BAC C GS MS FFIV CRUS AMCC
JDSU FNSR QCOM CSIQ FSLR
SPWR Z CLDX.....
Here is portfolio weighting :
AUY 36.32%
EBAY 30.97%
BBRY 23.00
KOG 9.71%
Exposure 102%
Next post by 2 PM Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
It was a big movers' week in many of my names but the portfolio only ended up 1.95% versus the S&P's +2.96%. The big gainers were materials and housing with WLT (+18.7%), TCK (+7.8%), CLF (+7.5%), TRLA (+8.0%), and WLH (+7.2%). The losers were various but relatively large with SODA (-12.0%), KOG (-7.4%), X (-4.4% from purchase), and TXTR (-3.7% even with a nice add-on purchase). Here's the portfolio now:
Commodities: WLT (x1.5) KOG (x1.5) TCK X CLF
Consumer Discretionary: KORS (x1.5) M SODA
Software: TXTR (x1.5) MODN MDSO
Housing: TRLA WLH
Other: CMI (engines) WLK (chemicals) CLDX (biotech)
This week I made a few tweaks in trimming big winners (WLT, CLDX) and adding to pullbacks (TXTR, KOG). I also exited some names which seemed to have slowing momentum (TEAR, SWC, RDN) but that worked out poorly. In conjunction, I tried to buy/add to some breaking out names (X, KORS, CMI) but that didn't work either except for CMI. I have had good luck in the past with these kinds of swaps, but this week just didn't work for now. I'll be patient as I've seen how it may take some time for these moves to play out as expected.
Even though China was still choppy this week, materials finally found their footing. It is too hard to ignore the improved pricing around the world for some of these commodities as economies stabilize or get incrementally better. Portfolio managers are so underexposed to this area that continued small improvements in fundamentals could lead to outsized gains still.
The gains in the NASDAQ were quite impressive this week but I've pared back my exposure there significantly from earlier months. I am still nervous about corporate and government spending trends, but it is hard to ignore how an improved macro picture could loosen up spending in many areas. I'll be closely watching this quarter's earnings reports for future growth signals. Interestingly, both PFPT and RALY (former portfolio holdings) were down 2+% this week in the strong tape.
Two of my stocks got crushed this week on reports of no takeover interest, SODA and KOG. I was quite surprised by the vicious reaction in both stocks to this news because I felt that fundamentals were also strong. I guess this is a good lesson on understanding how much takeover premium is in some names and following the price action/volume closely. I'm not sure I could have gotten out of KOG quickly enough (or needed to), but the SODA action was slow and persistent which could have allowed a decent exit. At this point, I don't look to sell either name ahead of earnings.
A lot of this week will be focused on earnings reports, but interesting data will be delivered from China this evening (GDP, retail sales, industrial production). I think much of any bad news was priced in Friday with the Chinese official's comments, so I think there's a good chance for a "sell the rumor, buy the news" effect no matter what number comes out. If stronger than the whisper numbers, I look for commodities to continue their nice run.
In summary, I may do some trimming and small adjustments as I have been, but I hope I have reason to maintain the strong commodities exposure because I really feel strongly about upside here. I'll be watching my favorites techs closely during earnings season for signs of growth ahead, and I have some new stocks that I'll be hearing for the first time.
It should get interesting now! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Another good recap of how you manage this market.
Good forward thinking analysis & strategy.
Saleem
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