Indices shot UP on catch-up buying & better than expected Jobs report. 195K was above 165K expected.
S&P 500 @ 1631.89, high 1632.07, 50 DMA 1625.74
RSI @ 54.48
CMF @ -0.028
Internals were :
UP volume led by 2.01 to 1 in NYSE & 3.18 to 1 in Nasdaq
Advancing stocks led by 1.30 to 1 in NYSE & 2.86 to 1 in Nasdaq
Net new 52 wk highs were leading by 128 in NYSE & 285 in Nasdaq
VIX Down 8.09% @ 14.89
Oil @ $103.22
Gold @ $1212.70
Canadian $ @ 94.63
Stocks which were UP 1% or more included EBAY KOG
LNKD NFLX TSLA TIF EXPE PCLN RDN DNKN
BAC C MS GS M LVS BIDU COH MA V RVBD
LRCX MU BRCM JDSU CIEN FNSR CSIQ
FSLR SPWR TXTR....
Here is my Portfolio weighting :
AUY 35.37%
EBAY 29.73%
BBRY 24.22%
KOG 10.68%
Exposure 102%
Next post by 2 PM Sunday.
BLOG does NOT give buy or sell.
Saleem
2 comments:
Hey Saleem,
After a very fun and relaxing vacation with the family, I came back to see the portfolio up 2.27% for the week compared to the S&P's +1.59%. I am surprised given many stocks in the portfolio were down, but the key is in the details. Big gainers included CLDX (+36.3%), TXTR (+13.4%, even with a 4.25% missed opportunity on a sell/buyback), and TEAR (+4.1%). The major losers were WLH (-11.8%), SODA (-6.9%), CLF (-4.9% from purchase), and TCK (-4.5%). Here's the portfolio now:
Commodities: WLT (x2 weight) SWC TCK KOG CLF
Consumer Discretionary: M SODA KORS
Software: MODN TXTR MDSO
Housing: RDN TRLA WLH
Other: CLDX (biotech) TEAR (medical device) WLK (chemicals)
Cash: ~0%
A major shift in the portfolio this week was selling many of my well-performing software stocks and swapping into more commodities. I sold PFPT, RALY, and SPLK in order to add SWC, CLF, KOG, and more WLT. I also made a shift from BBBY to TRLA due to individual stories.
In commodities, my feeling is that we've seen a price washout during Q2 and are now seeing many economies around the world start to look fundamentally better. It is easier to see this in the US and Europe, but I feel Asia may have seen the worst behind us also. As for software, I feel the competitive landscape has changed somewhat with the bigger players making substantial product progress (ORCL, SAP, IBM, CRM) and businesses may choose to take a step back to evaluate their new options. Neither the commodity nor software stocks show much evidence of these ideas yet, but I realize it may take months to get a clearer picture. As long as I don't see something glaringly obvious to the contrary, I hope to stick this out for a possible great reward.
Friday's action in the market was more powerful than we might first realize. After failing at the 50 DMA for three of the preceding five days before Friday, the market gapped open to right at it. A pullback ensued and the market worked on regaining footing all morning, but then sat for the two straight hours of 12-2PM right at the 50 DMA again. The afternoon then saw: a push higher, a test of the breakout, and then followthrough higher into the closing bell. This is possibly the most constructive action we could have seen. Given the action of the six trading days, especially including Friday, I think it is almost safe to say the bull market is back on track. A single confirmation day higher Monday or Tuesday as more participants come back would surely cinch it, and the very benign RSI of 54.48 leaves a lot of room to run. I remain fully exposed.
Earnings season is now upon us with the traditional AA kickoff Monday after the bell. Given some turmoil in markets and economies in the last part of Q2, I don't think people are expecting much. The "usual" roughly meet revenues, slight beat earnings is probably what we'll see. And we'll probably even see that "usual" conservative forward guidance. The key to earnings really is just seeing how management is performing by keeping the costs down, finding revenue where they can, and having the right strategic vision for the future. This is what portfolio managers are looking for as long as the macro environment is coming slowly along.
Overall, I am very constructive on the markets right now. I think we did everything right technically to "prove" this bull market and it feels like there are growing signs of optimism in places like the US and Europe. If we really have seen the worst in places like China, India, and Brazil also, then we could really see a nice end to the year. For now, good news has become good news, and that's the best news yet!
I hope everyone enjoyed a safe, happy holiday and weekend! :)
Stocktrader
Hi Stocktrader,
Your portfolio "keeps on trucking"
Your selections are working out good.
YES..Macro picture is improving in most economies.
We may have another powerful week.
July 1 was Canada's independence day & yours followed on 4th...it was a week of rest for many.....
Saleem
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